Report pegs cost of electrifying U.S. commercial truck fleet at $1 trillion

It would cost nearly $1 trillion in infrastructure alone to electrify the U.S. commercial truck fleet, according to a recent report from the Clean Freight Coalition (CFC). The report forecasts what the CFC calls a “realistic infrastructure buildout for the electrification of medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles” and outlines what the group refers to as a “massive investment gap” as policymakers mandate increased adoption of battery-electric vehicles.

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The report follows recent proposals by state and federal officials to tighten emissions standards and put more battery-powered trucks on the road. Global consulting firm Roland Berger conducted the research on behalf of CFC, which published the report Tuesday.

The $1 trillion figure is an estimate of what it would cost the commercial vehicle industry as well as utility companies to support electrified fleets. As the CFC explained, “Roland Berger calculated these costs based on modeling a commercial fleet with today’s technology compared to a fleet with modest but realistic performance improvements. The team then went county-by-county and modeled vehicle populations and projected electricity usage to identify areas in need of investment to support those fleets.”

The cost adds up to billions for each group and does not include the cost of new trucks. Key takeaways from the report include:

• Preparing today’s commercial vehicle fleet for electrification would require the commercial vehicle industry to invest upwards of $620 billion in charging infrastructure alone, including chargers, site infrastructure and electric service upgrades.
• Utilities would need to invest $370 billion to upgrade their grid networks to meet the demands of just commercial vehicles.
• This nearly $1 trillion expenditure does not account for the cost of new battery-electric trucks, which can be two to three times more expensive than their diesel-powered equivalents, according to the report. For example, a diesel Class 8 truck costs roughly $180,000, while a comparable battery-electric truck costs over $400,000.

The authors said medium-duty vehicles (vans and box trucks, for example) face fewer hurdles than heavy-duty trucks, noting that “significant improvements” in battery range and charging infrastructure capabilities are needed to support the latter group.

“Electrification means focusing on the vehicle segments that are easier first; it means that we have to look at how fleets operate and potentially adjust; it means that we need better cooperation and planning across industries and governments; and it requires an openness to alternative technology paths to decarbonizing the heavy-duty segment,” Roland Berger Senior Partner Dr. Wilfried Aulbur said in a statement announcing the report’s findings. “It also is clear that an industry with a yearly turnover of about $800 billion and a profit margin around 5% cannot invest $620 billion without financial support or a significant increase in freight rates.”