Monthly inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to reach its highest level in nearly two years this summer, according to a report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The surge is good news for retailers and freight carriers, but it is also expected to put extra strain on global supply chains that are already working to handle stresses such as port congestion and regional geopolitical violence.
“Consumers are continuing to spend more than last year, and retailers are stocking up to meet demand, especially as we head into peak shipping season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in the groups’ joint ‘Global Port Tracker’ report. “The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges again, this time with congestion at overseas ports that are affecting operations and shipping rates.”
If the forecast plays out as expected, it would produce an expected seven-month string of import levels above 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) – a level reached only twice since October 2022. The trend is partly due to changes in the annual “peak season” for shipping, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.
“Imports of containerized goods at U.S. ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast,” Hackett said. “In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past. Reasons range from retailers restocking following strong sales after the pandemic to trying to get ahead of increased tariffs on goods from China set to take effect in August and ensuring sufficient inventories for the holiday season amid strong consumer demand.”
By the numbers, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEU in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 4.6% from March and up 13.2% year over year, and was the highest number since 2.06 million TEU last October.
Ports have not yet reported May’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that volume rose to 2.09 million TEU, up 8.3% year over year for the highest level since 2.26 million in August 2022. June is forecast to go even higher at 2.11 million TEU, up 15.2% year over year. July is forecast at 2.1 million TEU, up 9.5%; August at 2.17 million TEU, up 10.6%; September at 2.06 million TEU, up 1.7%, and October at 2.01%, down 2.3% from the same month last year.
Overall, the first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.1 million TEU, up 15% from the same period last year. Imports during 2023 totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% from 2022.
