When it comes to improving their supply chains, industrial packaging companies (for the most part) have stalled out, but a few companies are making headway.
Supply chain leaders at industrial packaging companies navigate a difficult marketplace. Sitting two or three layers back in the supply chain, they struggle with increasing demand variability in a volatile world. They are under severe pressure from their customers, who are asking them to cut costs while improving customer service. Their lives would be easier if their downstream customers could improve demand-signal accuracy, but this has not been the reality.
Industrial packaging companies needed to improve agility in order to succeed in the face of these challenges. Yet the maturity of industrial packaging supply chains lags that of their upstream customers. In this industrial segment, companies are slow to adopt inventory and transportation systems. Historically, this industry has been a late adopter of technology and best practices. As a result, process evolution and supply chain improvement moves slowly.
Defining supply chain excellence in an uncertain world
While the concepts of supply chain excellence and improvement sound simple, it can be hard to define performance improvement and ascertain when a company is improving faster than a peer group. To help supply chain practitioners, like those in the industrial packaging segment, we created the Supply Chains to Admire methodology and our Supply Chain Index in 2014. Our methodology assesses both performance (rankings on revenue growth, operating margin, return on invested capital (ROIC), and inventory turns) against peer group and relative rates of improvement. The Supply Chain Index is a measure of improvement, while the Supply Chains to Admire methodology ranks companies both on improvement and performance within a peer group. (See the sidebar below for more detail about the Supply Chain Index and Supply Chains to Admire methodology.)
In Figure 1, we use the methodology to analyze companies in the packaging manufacturing industry for the period 2006-2014 while breaking out the trends for 2009-2014 (to assess the post-recession period) and 2011-2014 (to check for recent trends). Note that growth rates are increasing, but performance on operating margin and ROIC is flat. Industry performance on inventory turns is declining slightly. As you scan Figure 1, you will see that many of the companies perform better than the average on one or two metrics, but few companies perform better than the industry average on the entire, balanced portfolio of metrics. Amcor, CCL, and International Paper had the fastest rate of improvement on the four supply chain performance metrics when compared to the peer group. However, only CCL performed better than the industry averages (shown in the last line of the table) while also showing improvement. This is hard to accomplish. What makes it happen? Our research has found that companies are able to achieve this level of success when they focus on a balanced metric portfolio, a clear supply chain strategy, and conscious tradeoffs across the organization in cross-functional processes.
There are five traits of higher-performing companies in the packaging manufacturing industry: 1) implementation of innovative business models for packaging design and artwork management; 2) data sharing (of manufacturing line schedules) with customers; 3) vendor-managed inventory programs with strategic suppliers; 4) high standards for packaging quality; and 5) excellence in supply chain execution systems.
Companies performing well also have greater organizational alignment, and their commercial and operational teams work closely together. To accelerate sales, they have built supply chains for samples and small runs for test markets, and they work with their suppliers' research and development teams. In these organizations, the commercial teams understand that winning and keeping business from consumer products customers requires strong supply chain support. Note the patterns of the companies making progress in Figure 2 versus those not making progress in Figure 3.
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Supply chain excellence requires discipline and focus. It is about balance and resiliency. The Supply Chain Index measures resiliency as the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin. A tighter pattern, such as those seen in Figure 2, indicates greater reliability and consistency in responding to market and economic conditions over time. One of the issues for the packaging supply chain leader is the difficulty of achieving resiliency in year-over-year results. Due to demand volatility, the swings in performance are greater than in other industries.
The supply chain is a complex system that needs to be managed through the use of a balanced scorecard. Gains happen in small increments over time, and progress happens over many years. Success does not happen by focusing on a single project, a series of projects, or functional metrics. Instead, the leadership team must take a long-term view, steering the helm to focus on year-over-year momentum while maintaining resiliency.
ABOUT THE ANALYSIS AND METHODOLOGY
To build the Supply Chain Index and the Supply Chains to Admire methodology, we studied balance-sheet patterns for over 2,000 public companies and shared the results with more than 150 executive teams. The metrics we selected are based on correlation to market capitalization; we selected the metrics with the highest correlation, including a balanced scorecard of revenue growth, inventory turns, operating margin, and return on invested capital (ROIC). Based on this research, we believe supply chain excellence can be defined as the ability to improve across this entire portfolio of metrics. Success requires balance and alignment, not just superior performance on a single metric. (For more details about the Supply Chain Index and its associated metrics, see "The Supply Chain Index: A new way to measure value" in the Q3/2014 issue of CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.)
As a part of this methodology, we analyze performance and improvement for three time periods: 2006-2014, 2009-2014, and 2011-2014. The choice of these time periods and the methodology are based on several principles.
1.Complete and accurate data. The analysis extends back to the first year where there is generally available public data for the industries studied. Prior to 2006, the data is too sparse to analyze.
2.Understanding post-recession trends. The period of 2007-2010 included a major economic downturn. We measure the entire period of 2006-2014, but our primary focus is on the post-recession performance of 2009-2014, which we believe is the time period that allows the most accurate comparisons. We also look at 2011-2014 to check for recent trends. However, the year-over-year analysis of the patterns within that period is limited due to the fact that it the analysis only covers three years. Supply chain excellence takes three to five years to see marked improvement compared to a peer group.
3.Analysis of a peer group. The data analysis is by industry sector based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. We must have at least five companies in a peer group to make an assessment. While there have been many mergers and acquisitions, we want to derive as "clean" a peer group as possible, so we eliminate companies that have gone through major merger and acquisition activity during the period from our analysis.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.
The number of container ships waiting outside U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports has swelled from just three vessels on Sunday to 54 on Thursday as a dockworker strike has swiftly halted bustling container traffic at some of the nation’s business facilities, according to analysis by Everstream Analytics.
As of Thursday morning, the two ports with the biggest traffic jams are Savannah (15 ships) and New York (14), followed by single-digit numbers at Mobile, Charleston, Houston, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Baltimore, and Miami, Everstream said.
The impact of that clogged flow of goods will depend on how long the strike lasts, analysts with Moody’s said. The firm’s Moody’s Analytics division estimates the strike will cause a daily hit to the U.S. economy of at least $500 million in the coming days. But that impact will jump to $2 billion per day if the strike persists for several weeks.
The immediate cost of the strike can be seen in rising surcharges and rerouting delays, which can be absorbed by most enterprise-scale companies but hit small and medium-sized businesses particularly hard, a report from Container xChange says.
“The timing of this strike is especially challenging as we are in our traditional peak season. While many pulled forward shipments earlier this year to mitigate risks, stockpiled inventories will only cushion businesses for so long. If the strike continues for an extended period, we could see significant strain on container availability and shipping schedules,” Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said in a release.
“For small and medium-sized container traders, this could result in skyrocketing logistics costs and delays, making it harder to secure containers. The longer the disruption lasts, the more difficult it will be for these businesses to keep pace with market demands,” Roeloffs said.
Jason Kra kicked off his presentation at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE Conference on Tuesday morning with a question: “How do we use data in assessing what countries we should be investing in for future supply chain decisions?” As president of Li & Fung where he oversees the supply chain solutions company’s wholesale and distribution business in the U.S., Kra understands that many companies are looking for ways to assess risk in their supply chains and diversify their operations beyond China. To properly assess risk, however, you need quality data and a decision model, he said.
In January 2024, in addition to his full-time job, Kra joined American University’s Kogod School of Business as an adjunct professor of the school’s master’s program where he decided to find some answers to his above question about data.
For his research, he created the following situation: “How can data be used to assess the attractiveness of scalable apparel-producing countries for planning based on stability and predictability, and what factors should be considered in the decision-making process to de-risk country diversification decisions?”
Since diversification and resilience have been hot topics in the supply chain space since the U.S.’s 2017 trade war with China, Kra sought to find a way to apply a scientific method to assess supply chain risk. He specifically wanted to answer the following questions:
1.Which methodology is most appropriate to investigate when selecting a country to produce apparel in based on weighted criteria?
2.What criteria should be used to evaluate a production country’s suitability for scalable manufacturing as a future investment?
3.What are the weights (relative importance) of each criterion?
4.How can this methodology be utilized to assess the suitability of production countries for scalable apparel manufacturing and to create a country ranking?
5.Will the criteria and methodology apply to other industries?
After creating a list of criteria and weight rankings based on importance, Kra reached out to 70 senior managers with 20+ years of experience and C-suite executives to get their feedback. What he found was a big difference in criteria/weight rankings between the C-suite and senior managers.
“That huge gap is a good area for future research,” said Kra. “If you don’t have alignment between your C-suite and your senior managers who are doing a lot of the execution, you’re never going to achieve the goals you set as a company.”
With the research results, Kra created a decision model for country selection that can be applied to any industry and customized based on a company’s unique needs. That model includes discussing the data findings, creating a list of diversification countries, and finally, looking at future trends to factor in (like exponential technology, speed, types of supply chains and geopolitics, and sustainability).
After showcasing his research data to the EDGE audience, Kra ended his presentation by sharing some key takeaways from his research:
China diversification strategies alone are not enough. The world will continue to be volatile and disruptive. Country and region diversification is the only protection.
Managers need to balance trade-offs between what is optimal and what is acceptable regarding supply chain decisions. Decision-makers need to find the best country at the lowest price, with the most dependability.
There is a disconnect or misalignment between C-suite executives and senior managers who execute the strategy. So further education and alignment is critical.
Data-driven decision-making for your company/industry: This can be done for any industry—the data is customizable, and there are many “free” sources you can access to put together regional and country data. Utilizing data helps eliminate path dependency (for example, relying on a lean or just-in-time inventory) and keeps executives and managers aligned.
“Look at the business you envision in the future,” said Kra, “and make that your model for today.”
Turning around a failing warehouse operation demands a similar methodology to how emergency room doctors triage troubled patients at the hospital, a speaker said today in a session at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)’s EDGE Conference in Nashville.
There are many reasons that a warehouse might start to miss its targets, such as a sudden volume increase or a new IT system implementation gone wrong, said Adri McCaskill, general manager for iPlan’s Warehouse Management business unit. But whatever the cause, the basic rescue strategy is the same: “Just like medicine, you do triage,” she said. “The most life-threatening problem we try to solve first. And only then, once we’ve stopped the bleeding, we can move on.”
In McCaskill’s comparison, just as a doctor might have to break some ribs through energetic CPR to get a patient’s heart beating again, a failing warehouse might need to recover by “breaking some ribs” in a business sense, such as making management changes or stock write-downs.
Once the business has made some stopgap solutions to “stop the bleeding,” it can proceed to a disciplined recovery, she said. And to reach their final goal, managers can use the classic tools of people, process, and technology to improve what she called the three most important key performance indicators (KPIs): on time in full (OTIF), inventory accuracy, and staff turnover.