One in three retail professionals has incorporated artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities into their supply chain management processes, in an effort to cope with challenges like the slow pace of innovation and the shortcomings of current technology, a survey released today shows.
According to the survey, retailers say AI's greatest potential to improve supply chain management relates to the quality and speed of generating planning insights. Nearly half of all respondents identified "demand management" as one of the top three areas for AI in the next five years.
The majority of retailers surveyed have confidence in their allocation and inventory planning software, but 48 percent rate their forecasting technology as average to very poor. A key reason for that condition is that many companies are running disparate demand replenishment systems, hamstringing their efficiency. Thirty-six percent of survey respondents indicated that they have separate demand planning, replenishment, allocation, and order management systems for their store and e-commerce orders.
The survey also shows that the pace of innovation is a large challenge, with 43 percent of retail supply chain professionals saying their technology can't keep up with business demands. Forty-two percent describe less-than-optimal synchronization between their inventory and channels, and nearly as many worry about fulfillment complexities, stocking inefficiencies, and high product lead-time.
The impact of that mistake on supply chains is huge, the firm says. According to the survey, 43 percent of respondents say they're challenged by the lack of real-time visibility of all their supply chain inventory. However, six in 10 supply chain professionals say their organization is actively taking steps to address that hurdle and increase inventory visibility.
"Today's retail supply chain is being reinvented because of the complexities of providing goods to customers," Patrick Buellet, chief strategy officer at Symphony RetailAI, said in a statement. "As grocery retail evolves to become more of a destination for shoppers, supply chain efficiency is more critical than ever."
"There's also a constant backdrop of rising cost of goods, which cannot simply be passed on to the customer. And today's increasing focus on fresh and prepared meals adds additional challenges of accurate forecasting to meet customer expectations," Buellet said. "Even though retailers are challenged by the pace of innovation, winners are investing in new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and machine learning. These can boost productivity, and greatly improve the accuracy of information for better decisions throughout the supply chain."
An overwhelming majority (81%) of shoppers do not plan to increase their holiday spend this year over last year, revealing a significant disconnect between retail marketers and shoppers in the weeks before peak season, according to online shopping platform provider Rakuten.
That result flies in the face of high confidence levels from retailers who have been delaying their marketing spend, as 79% of marketers are optimistic they will reach holiday sales objectives, and 65% are timing their spend as late as November.
However, consumers are nervous about supply chain disruptions. Almost half (42%) of shoppers have started their shopping early to avoid shipping delays, while 32% plan to do more shopping in-store to avoid potential delays. The results come from a survey conducted online within the U.S. by The Harris Poll on behalf of Rakuten from Sept. 5 – Sept. 9 , among 2,100 consumers aged 18 and older and 101 retail marketers.
"There's a clear disconnect between marketer perception and consumer realities, but this presents a unique opportunity for retailers to capitalize on the shortcomings of their competition," said Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards. "As shoppers plan to spend less overall, there become fewer opportunities for retailers. This makes it evermore important for retailers to invest in strategies that set them apart throughout the entire holiday season.”
Three reasons behind the diverging views are:
Inflated prices. Even with softening inflation rates, nearly half (46%) of shoppers report that it will have the greatest impact on their holiday shopping strategy. Conversely, only 20% of marketers believe that to be true.
Election nerves. Shoppers anticipate that the upcoming election will have an impact on inflation, with 57% believing it will increase.
Weak brand loyalty. A majority of marketers (98%) believe shoppers will remain loyal to brands, but fully 42% of shoppers indicate they will prioritize finding the lowest prices by trading down to lower-quality brands and products for more affordable alternatives.
"Loyalty is up for grabs this holiday season, and success for retailers will hinge on offering value beyond just reduced prices," Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards, said in a release. "Our research revealed that shopper concern extends beyond just price, and retailers will need to address those concerns with comprehensive deals that include several table-stake incentives. Incentives like free shipping, buy now pay later services, and elevated Cash Back will be important for maintaining a loyal shopper base."
Regardless of the elected administration, the future likely holds significant changes for trade, taxes, and regulatory compliance. As a result, it’s crucial that U.S. businesses avoid making decisions contingent on election outcomes, and instead focus on resilience, agility, and growth, according to California-based Propel, which provides a product value management (PVM) platform for manufacturing, medical device, and consumer electronics industries.
“Now is not the time to wait for the dust to settle,” Ross Meyercord, CEO of Propel, said in a release. “Companies should approach this election cycle as an opportunity to thrive in the face of constant change by proactively investing in technology and talent that keeps them nimble. Businesses always need to be prepared for changing tariffs, taxes, or geopolitical tensions that lead to unexpected interruptions – that’s just the new normal.”
In Propel’s analysis, a Trump administration would bring a continuation of corporate tax cuts intended to bolster American manufacturing. However, Trump’s suggestion for spiraling tariffs may benefit certain industries, but would drive up costs for businesses reliant on global supply chains.
In contrast, a Harris administration would likely continue the current push for regulatory reforms that support sectors like AI, digital assets, and manufacturing while protecting consumer rights. Harris would also likely prioritize strategic investments in new technologies and provide tax incentives to promote growth in underserved areas.
And regardless of the new administration, the real challenge will come from a potentially divided Congress, which could impact everything from trade negotiations to tax policies, Propel said.
“The election outcome is less material for businesses,” Meyercord said. “What is important is quickly adapting to shifting policies or disruptions that address ‘what if’ scenarios and having the ability to pivot your strategy. A responsive manufacturing sector will have a significant impact on the broader economy, driving growth and favorably influencing GDP. One thing is clear: the only certainty is change.”
With that money, qualified ports intend to buy over 1,500 units of cargo handling equipment, 1,000 drayage trucks, 10 locomotives, and 20 vessels, as well as shore power systems, battery-electric and hydrogen vehicle charging and fueling infrastructure, and solar power generation.
For example, funds going to the Port of Los Angeles include a $412 million grant to support its goal of achieving 100% zero-emission (ZE) terminal operations by 2030. And following the award, the Port and its private sector partners will match the EPA grant with an additional $236 million, bringing the total new investment in ZE programs at the Port of Los Angeles to $644 million. According to the Port of Los Angeles, the combined new funding will go toward purchasing nearly 425 pieces of battery electric, human-operated ZE cargo-handling equipment, installing 300 new ZE charging ports and other related infrastructure, and deploying 250 ZE drayage trucks. The grant will also provide for $50 million for a community-led ZE grant program, workforce development, and related engagement activities.
And the Port of Oakland received $322 million through the grant, which will generate a total of nearly $500 million when combined with port and local partner contributions. Altogether, that total will be the largest-ever amount of federal funding for a Bay Area program aimed at cutting emissions from seaport cargo operations. The grant will finance 663 pieces of zero-emissions equipment which includes 475 drayage trucks and 188 pieces of cargo handling equipment.
Likewise, the Port of Virginia said its $380 million in new funding will help to reach its goal of eliminating all greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. The grant money will be used to buy and install electric assets and equipment while retiring legacy equipment powered by engines that burn gasoline or diesel fuel.
According to AAPA, those awards will demonstrate to Congress that the Clean Ports Program should become permanent with annual appropriations. Otherwise, they would soon cease to be funded as backing from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) comes to a close, AAPA said. “From the earliest stages of legislative development in Congress, America’s ports have been ecstatic about and committed to the vision of implementing a novel grant program for the port industry that will complement and strengthen existing plans to diversify how we power our ports,” Cary Davis, AAPA’s president and CEO, said in a release. “These grant funding awards will usher in a cleaner and more resilient future for our ports and national transportation system. We thank our champions in Congress and the Biden-Harris Administration for committing to us and we look forward to working closely with our Federal Government partners to get these funds quickly deployed and put to work.”
The majority of American consumers (86%) plan to reduce their holiday shopping budgets this year, with nearly half (47%) expecting to cut spending by more than 50% compared to last year, according to consumer research from Relex Solutions.
The forecast runs against some other studies that predict the upcoming holiday shopping season will be stronger than last year, with higher sales and earlier shopping than 2023.
But Finland-based Relex says its conclusion is based on the shorter holiday shopping period of 27 days in 2024 (five days shorter than 2023), combined with economic volatility and supply chain disruptions. The research includes survey responses from 1,000 U.S. consumers in October 2024.
According to Relex, those results reveal a complex landscape where price sensitivity and decreased brand loyalty are reshaping traditional retail dynamics. That means retailers and manufacturers must carefully balance promotional strategies with profitability while maintaining product availability, since consumers are actively seeking better value and may switch between brands more readily.
"Retailers are facing a highly challenging season, with consumers prioritizing value more than ever. To succeed, retailers must not only offer attractive promotions but also ensure those deals don’t erode their margins. At the same time, manufacturers need to optimize their operations and collaborate with retailers to deliver value without sacrificing profitability," Madhav Durbha, Relex’ group vice president of CPG and Manufacturing, said in a release. The company says it provides a supply chain and retail planning platform that optimizes demand, merchandising, supply chain, operations, and production planning.
"This holiday season represents a critical juncture for the retail industry," Durbha added. "With reduced brand loyalty and a shorter shopping window, there’s no room for error. Retailers and manufacturers need to work together closely, leveraging AI-powered tools to anticipate demand, manage inventory, and run effective promotions," Durbha said.
In additional findings, the survey found:
Brand loyalty is eroding: About 45% of consumers say they're less likely to remain loyal to brands without meaningful discounts, while 41% will switch brands if faced with both poor deals and out-of-stock products.
Digital channels dominate deal-seeking behavior: Store and brand apps (60%) and email promotions (60%) are the primary channels for finding deals, while only 32% of consumers primarily search for deals in physical stores.
Supply chain concerns remain significant: Nearly 85% of shoppers express concern about potential disruptions, with electronics (60%) and clothing/accessories (57%) being the categories of highest concern.
Age significantly impacts shopping behavior: Consumers from age 45-60 show the highest economic sensitivity, with 60% cutting budgets by more than 50%, while shoppers aged 18-29 prioritize product availability over price.
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The East and Gulf Coast Port strike as well as an increase in imports from offshore e-commerce retailers helped to boost demand for airfreight in the second half of 2024.
Like much of the transportation industry, the pace of change in the air cargo sector remains uncharacteristically high. Disruptions in other freight markets and emerging business models have added new demand for airfreight. The result for shippers has been more variability in rates, capacity availability, and service offerings than we saw last year.
Airfreight capacity levels have risen to historical highs this year in large part due to a growth in air passenger travel, which has opened up more belly-hold capacity for freight. As Boeing reports in its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook, air passenger demand has recovered from the pandemic and has returned to the long-term growth trend that Boeing had projected 20 years ago in 2004.
While airfreight rates have dropped significantly from a high in 2021, they are still volatile.
Freightos Air Freight Index, https://www.freightos.com/freightos-air-index/
Several trends are impacting the balance of supply and demand. One of the obvious benefits of air cargo service is its speed and reliability relative to ocean service. With the levels of disruption seen in the ocean market—drought, port strikes, and war being only a few—the case for airfreight has been made stronger. As shippers seek predictability for their operations and their customers, the demand for airfreight has risen.
Another large tailwind driving air cargo market is the continued success of offshore e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu. Their model focuses on fulfilling orders in markets like the United States and Europe directly from East Asia, negating the need for holding inventory in destination countries. This model has large cost and cash benefits but depends on faster delivery of consumers’ orders than ocean shipping can provide, leaving air service as the only realistic option.
The subsequent growth in demand on lanes from China to the United States has resulted in higher rates and tighter capacity availability. Shippers have also reported difficulties in securing capacity on niche lanes because carriers have been pulling capacity from these lanes and using it to serve more lucrative opportunities on e-commerce lanes.
While disruptions in other modes and new sources of demand have served as tailwinds for the airfreight market, there are other factors that are working to dampen demand. One of the major headwinds for the air industry is a renewed focus on cost containment on the part of shippers. When demand for goods spiked during the pandemic, many shippers turned to airfreight to fulfill orders and keep products stocked. Four years later, many shippers still have more reliance on air services than they would prefer. As a result, they are looking to rebalance or reoptimize their air and ocean allocations, pushing service-sensitive cargo to air while moving less sensitive cargo back to ocean.
Given these countervailing trends in the market, it’s not surprising that rates are volatile. The Freightos Air Index (see chart above) shows a significant decline in rates from a high of $5.16 in 2021. Since mid-2023, rates have ranged between $2.20/kg to $2.80/kg. While shippers are happy to be well below pandemic rates, 30% month-to-month variations make financial projections difficult.
Stability on the horizon?
With major shifts underway in routes, demand, capacity, and rates, there’s never a dull moment for users of air services. Looking ahead, however, one can begin to see a more stable future.
Systemic capacity growth driven by passenger volumes can be expected to continue. On certain lanes, like Asia to the United States, growth in e-commerce volume will continue to drive capacity challenges and higher rates—at least as long as existing laws allow offshore platforms to enjoy tax and duty benefits that subsidize their business model. For the rest of the world, however, we can expect to see capacity growth outpace demand growth and a continued reduction in rates.
Route churn can be expected to continue as air carriers respond more quickly to passenger and cargo demand shifts. We expect to see carriers’ analytics capabilities continue to improve, and yield and margin gains to follow.
Additionally, we expect that carriers and freight forwarders will invest in technology tools that can enhance collaboration and improve efficiencies. These efforts will give them a stronger position to handle inevitable future disruptions.
On the shipper side, we expect to see more companies lock in longer contracts as a way to mitigate the effects of rate volatility. This shift is already beginning to occur. In the fourth quarter of 2023, 45% of new contracts were for longer than six months, up from 27% in 2022. Additionally, shippers should look to technologies such as market monitoring and digital compliance tools to help them can keep on top of market trends and opportunities. These steps can help companies navigate and thrive in the highly dynamic airfreight marketplace.