Report: Logistics real estate well positioned to weather coronavirus-related volatility
Logistics is well positioned to manage changes in real estate capital markets and is likely to benefit from long-term demand for inventory and an increase in ecommerce as a result of COVID-19 disruptions, study shows.
Victoria Kickham, an editor at large for Supply Chain Quarterly, started her career as a newspaper reporter in the Boston area before moving into B2B journalism. She has covered manufacturing, distribution and supply chain issues for a variety of publications in the industrial and electronics sectors, and now writes about everything from forklift batteries to omnichannel business trends for Supply Chain Quarterly's sister publication, DC Velocity.
As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to threaten global supply chains, at least one segment of the logistics industry is maintaining a positive outlook: real estate. Although sure to feel negative effects in the short term, logistics real estate is likely to prove resilient in the longer term and generate positive demand via rising inventory levels and accelerating e-commerce adoption, according to a March study by logistics real estate firm Prologis.
But there will be pain before the gain. COVID-19, the respiratory illness that began in China and is now a global pandemic, has slowed manufacturing activity in China and stalled cargo shipments from the region. In a March 6 presentation, executives from supply chain software firm Resilinc reported a 20% drop in ocean traffic from China since the outbreak began and noted that many ships are leaving the region only partially full—in some cases at 20% to 35% capacity. U.S. ports are feeling the effects of the situation; the Port of Oakland reported a 9% drop in February imports Friday, citing the effects of COVID-19 on manufacturing and the supply chain.
Such heightened supply chain risks introduce new long-term trends that could boost demand for real estate, however. Prologis says the slower movement of goods will lead to a shortage of activity in logistics real estate in the near term followed by a replenishment surge later on. Rising demand for e-commerce and increasing diversification of manufacturing locations may also affect the outlook.
"Historically, this kind of volatility has correlated with stronger demand for logistics real estate. Two examples—Brexit and the U.S.-China tariff implementation—were followed by historically strong levels of net absorption in the UK and U.S.," Prologis wrote in its special report COVID-19 and Implications for Logistics Real Estate.
In the short term, Prologis says demand may soften, freeing up space. But the situation could be short-lived as some customers "race to gain lost ground and expand their needs for facilities in support of business continuity and higher service levels."
Uncertainty remains a key factor, however, and the authors emphasize that COVID-19 remains the most serious risk so far to the lengthy global economic expansion. But they point to three areas of change that, together, may translate to higher levels of demand for warehouses and industrial space once the uncertainty has subsided:
Rising inventory levels. "By design, supply chains minimize inventories to distribute goods at low cost. They don't tolerate volatility, which leads to lost sales and revenues. In the past, events such as natural disasters and work stoppages at ports have led to step changes in inventory practices," the authors wrote. "In the wake of COVID-19, customers are likely to reassess ideal inventory volumes and business continuity plans—which could translate to greater demand."
Continued e-commerce adoption. "The current expansion has been characterized by the emergence of online shopping, which grew by 16.7% globally in 2019," the authors also wrote. "COVID-19 doesn't seem likely to change any of that; instead, it may increase the speed of adoption and the number of consumers who shop online. Given its value proposition, especially in the hardest-hit markets, e-commerce may rise in even greater importance in the basic functioning of everyday life."
Diversifying manufacturing locations. "COVID-19 may accelerate another structural trend: pushing manufacturing to new locations. Aided by industry 4.0 trends that boost productivity, manufacturers have been evolving their global supply chain strategies, increasingly emphasizing near-adjacent locations (such as Mexico and Central and Eastern Europe) alongside reshoring," they wrote. "Strategies that focus on the consumption end of supply chains will not be affected by these trends. While production-end locations alone are not a major investment strategy, this broadening of manufacturers creates second-order demand through both suppliers and networks that serve blossoming consumer markets."
Gulf Coast businesses in Louisiana and Texas are keeping a watchful eye on the latest storm to emerge from the Gulf Of Mexico this week, as Hurricane Rafael nears Cuba.
The category 2 storm’s edges could also brush Florida as it heads northwest, causing tropical storm force winds in the lower and middle Florida keys. However, the weather agency said it is too soon to forecast Rafael’s impact on the U.S. western Gulf Coast.
In the face of campaign pledges by Donald Trump to boost tariffs on imports, many U.S. business interests are pushing back on that policy plan following Trump’s election yesterday as president-elect.
U.S. firms are already rushing to import goods before the promised tariff increases take effect, to avoid potential cost increases. That’s because tariffs are paid by the domestic companies that order the goods, not by the foreign nation that makes them.
That dynamic would likely increase prices for U.S. consumers as importers pass along the extra cost in the form of price hikes, according to an analysis by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Specifically, Trump’s tariff plan would boost prices in six consumer product categories: apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear, and travel goods. “Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
The rush to avoid those swollen costs can already be measured in the form of rising rates for transporting ocean freight, as companies start buffering their inventories before the new administration officially announces tariff hikes. Transpacific rates are still $1,000/FEU or more above their April lows, showing increased ocean volumes and climbing rates generated by shippers’ concerns about supply chain disruptions including port strikes and the Trump tariff increases, supply chain visibility provider Freightos said in an analysis. "The Trump win may start shaking up supply chains even before he takes office. Just the anticipation of higher tariffs may lead importers to pull forward shipments, creating a preemptive freight frenzy," Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said in a release. “Frontloading will cause freight rates to feel the heat as importers race to dodge the extra costs, similar to what took place with Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019."
Another group sounding a note of caution about international trade developments was the Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA), a trade group which represents some 1,500 member companies in more than 90 countries that provide temperature-controlled warehousing, logistics, and transportation. “We congratulate President Trump on his election. We also congratulate all those who have been elected to the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives,” GCCA President and CEO Sara Stickler said in a statement. “We are also committed to promoting the growth of exports from U.S.-based food production and broader manufacturing sectors. We will engage constructively in the policy discussion about future trade policy and continue to make the case for the importance of maintaining balanced and resilient trade routes for food and other temperature-controlled products across the world.”
Businesses in the European Union (EU) were likewise wary of tariff plans, judging by a statement from the VDMA, a trade group representing 3,600 German and European machinery and equipment manufacturing companies. "Donald Trump's second term will be a greater challenge for German and European industry than his first presidency. We must take his tariff announcements seriously, in particular. This will once again put a noticeable strain on transatlantic trade and investment relations," VDMA Executive Director Thilo Brodtmann said in a statement. “The USA is and will remain the most important export market outside the EU for mechanical and plant engineering from Germany. Our companies offer the products required to implement the re-industrialization of the USA that Donald Trump is striving for. The VDMA's overall outlook for the American market therefore remains positive."
In addition to its flagship Clorox bleach product, Oakland, California-based Clorox manages a diverse catalog of brands including Hidden Valley Ranch, Glad, Pine-Sol, Burt’s Bees, Kingsford, Scoop Away, Fresh Step, 409, Brita, Liquid Plumr, and Tilex.
British carbon emissions reduction platform provider M2030 is designed to help suppliers measure, manage and reduce carbon emissions. The new partnership aims to advance decarbonization throughout Clorox's value chain through the collection of emissions data, jointly identified and defined actions for reduction and continuous upskilling.
The program, which will record key figures on energy, will be gradually rolled out to several suppliers of the company's strategic raw materials and packaging, which collectively represents more than half of Clorox's scope 3 emissions.
M2030 enables suppliers to regularly track and share their progress with other customers using the M2030 platform. Suppliers will also be able to export relevant compatible data for submission to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), a global disclosure system to manage environmental data.
"As part of Clorox's efforts to foster a cleaner world, we have a responsibility to ensure our suppliers are equipped with the capabilities necessary for forging their own sustainability journeys," said Niki King, Chief Sustainability Officer at The Clorox Company. "Climate action is a complex endeavor that requires companies to engage all parts of their supply chain in order to meaningfully reduce their environmental impact."
Supply chain risk analytics company Everstream Analytics has launched a product that can quantify the impact of leading climate indicators and project how identified risk will impact customer supply chains.
Expanding upon the weather and climate intelligence Everstream already provides, the new “Climate Risk Scores” tool enables clients to apply eight climate indicator risk projection scores to their facilities and supplier locations to forecast future climate risk and support business continuity.
The tool leverages data from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to project scores to varying locations using those eight category indicators: tropical cyclone, river flood, sea level rise, heat, fire weather, cold, drought and precipitation.
The Climate Risk Scores capability provides indicator risk projections for key natural disaster and weather risks into 2040, 2050 and 2100, offering several forecast scenarios at each juncture. The proactive planning tool can apply these insights to an organization’s systems via APIs, to directly incorporate climate projections and risk severity levels into your action systems for smarter decisions. Climate Risk scores offer insights into how these new operations may be affected, allowing organizations to make informed decisions and mitigate risks proactively.
“As temperatures and extreme weather events around the world continue to rise, businesses can no longer ignore the impact of climate change on their operations and suppliers,” Jon Davis, Chief Meteorologist at Everstream Analytics, said in a release. “We’ve consulted with the world’s largest brands on the top risk indicators impacting their operations, and we’re thrilled to bring this industry-first capability into Explore to automate access for all our clients. With pathways ranging from low to high impact, this capability further enables organizations to grasp the full spectrum of potential outcomes in real-time, make informed decisions and proactively mitigate risks.”
Third party logistics provider (3PL) C.H. Robinson has applied generative AI tools to automate various steps across the entire lifecycle of a freight shipment, the Minnesota company said last week.
C.H. Robinson said it created AI-based technology that reads incoming email then replicates tasks a person would do, including giving customers a price quote, accepting a load, setting appointments for pickup and delivery, and checking on the load in transit. The company has used the approach to automate more than 10,000 of those routine transactions per day, allowing shippers who use email to get the same speed-to-market and cost savings as customers who use C.H. Robinson’s online platform.
After starting with price quotes, the company said it has applied generative AI to increasingly complex tasks. “We announced in May that we’d been using our new tech for emailed price requests. Within a few short months, we created new models to automate more shipping steps and have already implemented them at scale,” Arun Rajan, the company’s Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer, said in a release. “This a major efficiency breakthrough for the industry and for supply chains around the world. When you think about retailers that need hundreds of different products on their shelves or automakers that rely on just-in-time delivery for the 30,000 different parts in a car, saving hours and minutes on every shipment matters.”
The technology also saves time, cutting the task for a person to take care of an emailed load tender from as much as four hours to 90 seconds, according to Mark Albrecht, the company’s Vice President for Artificial Intelligence.
“Once a person got to the email in their inbox, it still took an average of seven minutes to manually enter all the shipment details into our system – and that’s for a single load,” Albrecht said. “If the email tendered us 20 loads, a person would be stuck manually entering the information one load at a time. With generative AI, we can process all 20 loads simultaneously in the same 90 seconds. That’s an enormous time savings, especially when you consider we’ve scaled this to thousands of shipment orders per day just since June.”