The last couple of years have been a recipe for a sunny day in anyone's book. r stormy ones for the global economy. But rather than dwell on past difficulties, perhaps we should take a cue from Little Orphan Annie, who sang in the Broadway musical Annie, "Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow, there'll be sun."
There still are some pessimists among us, but most economists are predicting a gradual upturn in the economy through the remainder of this year and next. We already are seeing signs of this as firms report improved firstquarter earnings. Of course we all hope this will continue. But for many companies, the recovery will not be as easy as flipping a switch and singing, "Happy days are here again."
Managing through difficult times is quite different from managing through an economic upturn. Techniques are different, and even some managers are better suited for one economic environment than for the other. This can be true for all types of firms, but logistics service providers have a unique set of problems.
Fewer clients, more space
While it is true that in difficult times a number of potential users of third-party logistics services will turn to outsourcing, it is also true that many will not. Managers are often reluctant to make any major changes in strategy or are afraid that outsourcing could lead to job eliminations and staff reductions. As a result, a number of providers have seen a decline in the numbers of existing clients with little new business to offset those losses.
That's certainly been the case with logistics service providers (LSPs) that focus on warehousing services. Many of their clients have had to reduce their inventories or have seen a decline in the volume of orders from their own customers; as a result, there is less demand for warehousing space and shipping resources.
The ideal situation for those LSPs would have been to find new customers to replace lost business or business that was subject to inventory and volume reductions. Despite their best efforts, though, some providers that lease their warehousing space had to reduce their lease commitments. Those with longerterm leases have not been able to do this. Meanwhile, LSPs that own their facilities have had little, if any, flexibility, although some have been able to lease blocks of space to other companies.
Regardless of the degree to which the economy improves and volumes rise, many LSPs will find themselves with little room to increase the amount of product they ship. Indeed, as inventories and shipments from existing customers increase, there will be a need to add space that may or may not be readily available at the location where it is needed. Ironically, LSPs that have been unable to minimize empty space will be in the best position when business picks up, since they will be able to handle additional volumes with little effort.
Similarly, from a labor perspective, providers that were forced to lay off employees will now need to hire and train new people. Availability, however, should not be a problem, and they should be able to ramp up staffing fairly quickly.
As the economy improves, logistics service providers will continue to offer new systems and technology to boost their service offerings to customers. Others may increase their trucking offerings or establish new ones. While many warehouse providers already offer trucking, those that focus only on warehousing may now find that expanded offerings are both possible and profitable in the new economy. Finally, as volume increases, the demand for brokerage will also rise, and some providers may find this to be a profitable area as well.
The real opportunities, of course, will be available to those LSPs that were creative and innovative during the downturn and installed new systems, techniques, and cost-cutting initiatives that they can carry forward into the new economy. They will be able to handle higher volumes at lower costs, a recipe for a sunny day in anyone's book.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use artificial intelligence-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next one to three years. Retailers also said they plan to invest in self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) within the next three years to help with loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick-and-mortar shopping experience, as 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Part of that frustration, according to consumers, is fueled by the extra time it takes to find an associate to them unlock those cases. Seventy percent of consumers say they have trouble finding sales associates to help them during in-store shopping. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
Additional areas of frustrations identified by retailers and associates include:
The difficulty of implementing "click and collect" or in-story returns, despite high shopper demand for them;
The struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing;
Lingering labor shortages; and
Increasing loss incidents.
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”