Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
Investors have shelved billions of dollars in construction projects since the Covid-19 pandemic and recession began in February, but the logistics sector has largely bucked that trend as companies continue to push a surge in new warehouse creation to handle booming e-commerce demand, according to a pair of studies released this week.
Counting all types of construction nationwide, builders doubled the value of projects they launched between the depths of the 2009 recession and the pre-Covid market peak in 2019, topping out last year at $853 billion worth of single family and multifamily housing, commercial projects, institutional building, manufacturing plants, public works, and electric power/utility sites.
The coronavirus stopped that trend abruptly, however, pushing the overall construction market into a steep decline that is forecast to tumble 14% in 2020 to $738 billion, according to “Dodge Construction Outlook 2021: Moving Forward on the Road to Recovery,” an economic report produced by New Jersey-based Dodge Data & Analytics, a market forecasting firm in the commercial construction sector.
But one exception stands out amid that sea of red ink, as warehouse starts are still expected to grow in 2020. Dodge defines warehouses as part of the larger “commercial” construction segment—alongside stores, offices, hotels, and parking garages—which is expected to fall 23% to $107 billion in 2020 before rebounding in 2021 with a 5% rise to $113 billion.
Likewise, a second report also found signs of a nascent economic recovery in logistics despite significant negative impacts on the retail and hospitality industries, which are particularly reliant on consumer spending and mobility, according to the latest “Global Real Estate Perspective” report from real restate firm Jones Lang LaSalle IP Inc. (JLL).
More specifically, warehouse growth is seeing spikes in certain specialty areas, such as an increase in last-mile logistics facilities as online retail grows, the conversion of retail facilities into logistics facilities in dense urban areas, and demand for cold-storage in the food & beverage and life sciences sectors. “Demand for logistics space has bounced back sharply, hitting record or near-record levels in several major global markets during the quarter. E-commerce companies have been particularly active, supported by increased consumer demand for online shopping,” the JLL report said.
Despite that optimism, the 2021 economic rebound could be delayed until later in the year if certain variables don’t line up, the Dodge report said. “Prospects for recovery in 2021 will be limited until a vaccine has been approved and has been widely adopted, a process that is expected to begin by mid-2021. The uncertainty surrounding further federal stimulus and growing budget gaps at state and local levels, however, cloud the outlook,” said report author Richard Branch, Dodge’s chief economist.
U.S. economy awaits second round of stimulus funds
Another wild card in the recovery will be federal stimulus funding, which made a significant impact on the economy beginning in March, when Congress passed the $1.7 trillion CARES Act—an acronym for Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security—including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and other loans and grants. That effect was temporary, however, as the fiscal boost provided by the CARES Act began to fade after income support programs within the act expired in July and the PPP ended in August, Dodge said.
The prospects for quick passage of a second large stimulus package now seem dim, based on November 4 election results that have split federal government control between a Democratic Biden Administration and House of Representatives and a Republican Senate. “Without the help provided by CARES funding, the economy is unlikely to regain significant forward traction until a vaccine has been approved and widely adopted across the United States,” the Dodge report found.
In the longer term, the researchers expect an additional $1.5 trillion of stimulus to be approved in the first quarter of 2021, helping the economy return to stronger growth in the second quarter of 2021. Yet even when that recovery occurs, the impact of the pandemic could have long-lasting implications for the retail industry, changing many of the supply chain patterns that have stood for decades, thanks to the closing of thousands of retail stores that failed to survive the recession.
“While brick and mortar is unlikely to disappear entirely, online shopping became a much more ingrained part of consumer purchasing behavior due to stay-at-home orders,” the Dodge report said. "A massive number of consumers clearly turned to online shopping to deal with the restrictions of Covid-19 in the second quarter. If this sea change in consumer behavior becomes a permanent phenomenon, the long-lasting effects of Covid-19 could mean further deterioration in retail construction starts in coming years.”
Despite the impact of those trends on retail stores, the accompanying rise in e-commerce has been good news for the warehouse construction needed to provide fulfillment for all those online orders.
Beginning at a low point of just 49 million square feet in 2010, warehouse starts increased by double-digit rates for seven consecutive years, resulting in an “amazing” 508% increase that brought starts up to 297 million square feet in 2017, the firm said. After a flat period in 2018, the hot curve resumed with 354 million square feet in 2019, and is forecast to resume that growth in 2021 with post-Covid projects led by a growing number of million-square-foot mega-warehouses built by amazon.com.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use artificial intelligence-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next one to three years. Retailers also said they plan to invest in self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) within the next three years to help with loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick-and-mortar shopping experience, as 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Part of that frustration, according to consumers, is fueled by the extra time it takes to find an associate to them unlock those cases. Seventy percent of consumers say they have trouble finding sales associates to help them during in-store shopping. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
Additional areas of frustrations identified by retailers and associates include:
The difficulty of implementing "click and collect" or in-story returns, despite high shopper demand for them;
The struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing;
Lingering labor shortages; and
Increasing loss incidents.
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
Census data showed that overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.
October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.
Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Despite that positive trend, market watchers cautioned that retailers still need to offer competitive value propositions and customer experience in order to succeed in the holiday season. “The American consumer has been more resilient than anyone could have expected. But that isn’t a free pass for retailers to under invest in their stores,” Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at Aptos, a solutions provider of unified retail technology based out of Alpharetta, Georgia, said in a statement. “They need to make investments in labor, customer experience tech, and digital transformation. It has been too easy to kick the can down the road until you suddenly realize there’s no road left.”
A similar message came from Chip West, a retail and consumer behavior expert at the marketing, packaging, print and supply chain solutions provider RRD. “October’s increase proved to be slightly better than projections and was likely boosted by lower fuel prices. As inflation slowed for a number of months, prices in several categories have stabilized, with some even showing declines, offering further relief to consumers,” West said. “The data also looks to be a positive sign as we kick off the holiday shopping season. Promotions and discounts will play a prominent role in holiday shopping behavior as they are key influencers in consumer’s purchasing decisions.”
Supply chains are poised for accelerated adoption of mobile robots and drones as those technologies mature and companies focus on implementing artificial intelligence (AI) and automation across their logistics operations.
That’s according to data from Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Mobile Robots and Drones, released this week. The report shows that several mobile robotics technologies will mature over the next two to five years, and also identifies breakthrough and rising technologies set to have an impact further out.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a graphical depiction of a common pattern that arises with each new technology or innovation through five phases of maturity and adoption. Chief supply chain officers can use the research to find robotic solutions that meet their needs, according to Gartner.
Gartner, Inc.
The mobile robotic technologies set to mature over the next two to five years are: collaborative in-aisle picking robots, light-cargo delivery robots, autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) for transport, mobile robotic goods-to-person systems, and robotic cube storage systems.
“As organizations look to further improve logistic operations, support automation and augment humans in various jobs, supply chain leaders have turned to mobile robots to support their strategy,” Dwight Klappich, VP analyst and Gartner fellow with the Gartner Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the findings. “Mobile robots are continuing to evolve, becoming more powerful and practical, thus paving the way for continued technology innovation.”
Technologies that are on the rise include autonomous data collection and inspection technologies, which are expected to deliver benefits over the next five to 10 years. These include solutions like indoor-flying drones, which utilize AI-enabled vision or RFID to help with time-consuming inventory management, inspection, and surveillance tasks. The technology can also alleviate safety concerns that arise in warehouses, such as workers counting inventory in hard-to-reach places.
“Automating labor-intensive tasks can provide notable benefits,” Klappich said. “With AI capabilities increasingly embedded in mobile robots and drones, the potential to function unaided and adapt to environments will make it possible to support a growing number of use cases.”
Humanoid robots—which resemble the human body in shape—are among the technologies in the breakthrough stage, meaning that they are expected to have a transformational effect on supply chains, but their mainstream adoption could take 10 years or more.
“For supply chains with high-volume and predictable processes, humanoid robots have the potential to enhance or supplement the supply chain workforce,” Klappich also said. “However, while the pace of innovation is encouraging, the industry is years away from general-purpose humanoid robots being used in more complex retail and industrial environments.”