Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Rafay Ishfaq of Auburn University on the threats of a labor shortage
Labor was tight for supply chain and logistics jobs before the pandemic; now it’s become even more constrained. What can you do to attract and retain good employees?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Rafay Ishfaq is the W. Allen Reed Associate Professor in the Department of Supply Chain Management at Auburn University’s Harbert College of Business. He is also the department’s graduate programs coordinator. Dr. Ishfaq's research is focused on issues related to the strategic planning of logistics operations and the efficient use of resources within supply chain networks.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
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Today, we focus on the threat of a labor shortage. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly's executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:41
Thank you for joining us today for the latest episode of top 10 threats to supply chains. Our subject today are the risks and challenges surrounding the current labor shortages. Speaking to us today about this subject is Professor Rafay Ishfaq from the University of—Auburn University. He is the W. Allen Reed associate professor for the Department of Supply Chain Management. Rafay is also engaged in a lot of different research reports and studies that are associated with this topic, such as the State of Retail Supply Chain for the Retail Industry Logistics Association, and the Logistics 2030 study for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. In fact, we are speaking to Rafay today from the CSCMP Edge conference. Rafay, thanks for joining us.
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:34
Thank you, Susan, for inviting me for this brief talk.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:37
Thank you. So, there's been a lot of talk across all industries about the current labor shortage, but the problem feels particularly acute for the supply chain. Can you talk about some of the positions and job types that have been particularly hard for companies to fill, and the challenges they are facing in those areas?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 02:58
I think we find ourselves in a very unique and unprecedented situation where the demand for labor and management talent has surpassed the capacity or the supply of labor in management skills. If you think about the current situation, we have got a surge in demand across retail. We see a lot of logistics activities on the inbound side, where companies are looking for drivers, they're looking for warehousing staff to be able to stock up the inventory, a nd all the way up to the sourcing and global movement of goods across the oceans. There is just so much need for logistics activities that the available pool of labor and management skills are just not there. Think about all the different options that [the] labor force would have right now. There are many companies who are offering more than—higher-than-usual salaries. I can think of Amazon and Target as some of those companies that will pay you a premium on being available to work for them. Even in the gig market, if you're willing to do a, an Uber or Lyft service or other crowd-sourced options, you can not only make good money, but also have the flexibility in the work schedule that a lot of us are looking for in these tiring times of family-oriented struggles and just making things work. So, when there are limited number of people available and there's a[n] unprecedented surge in demand, these mismatches are bound to happen. So, to answer your question, I think we are seeing issues with finding enough labor and management people to fill the roles that are available all across the board.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:13
And it's seems that it's not just a matter of recruiting the right talent; it is retaining them as well. How much of a factor is that in the labor shortage that we are seeing currently?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 05:25
That's a great question, and if you think about this for a second, both of these issues, recruiting and retention, kind of goes hand in hand. I have met a number of people here at the conference who would share their experience of having worked at a company for just a little bit of time, a little over a year, and already receiving job offers with better salaries and signup bonuses, just to get those people to cross over the fence and come and work for the other company. I think part of the ways this, the retention and recruiting challenges are connected is the way our industry has shifted. If you think about the impact of e-commerce on warehousing and distribution processes, where we have moved away from just moving pallet loads on a forklift truck. We are now asking people to move boxes and pick, pack, and ship orders that are in smaller quantity, just increase the labor work. As well as, the management roles are becoming more complicated. I sometimes refer to this as a little bit of a skill deficit. The complexity of managing today's supply chains and all the technologies that are incorporated in handling this, the new modern supply chain, has left [the industry] with fewer people who are trained, who are skilled to be able to handle this. And once you get workers trained for warehousing operations, or get them attracted to the transportation and driving roles, there is just so much out there that they are, they will easily move to another company, with the premiums being offered.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:21
Right, right. So what are some innovative ways that companies can respond to these challenges?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 07:30
We have to think about the recruitment and the retention of labor force and the management roles in slightly different ways. When you talk about the labor force, there has to be a little bit of flexibility, maybe higher wages. In the most recent study that we have just concluded, these are the things that we are hearing from a lot of businesses. Just the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market means that companies have to pay a little bit of [a] premium to get people to work, to actually come work for the business as a[n] employer of choice. On the management side, there is a strong need for additional training programs, especially management—leadership management programs, that would attract high quality and talented managers to come and work for your company. So, there are ways that companies are handling it, they're tackling it. And that's the need of the time.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:34
Excellent. Do you have any sense of how successful these strategies are? Are the companies that are paying more having less of a challenge recruiting people, or is it still hard?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 08:46
There are recent labor statistics that indicate about 60% of the lost jobs at the start of the pandemic have been recovered. The remaining 40% is where the surge in demand in unavailability of trained and skilled workforce remains. It is not surprising that 60% of middle and top management job opportunities remain unfulfilled. National Association of Manufacturing ha[s] identified this shortage to actually lead up to about $1 trillion worth of lost business by 2030. So, this is a work in progress. Companies are struggling, but they are making the effort to incorporate these training programs, flexible work options, and leadership-development programs to attract and train future leaders.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly09:50
Are there any sort of long-term strategies or solutions companies need to keep in mind. Is this the time you really need to be looking at automation, especially for the labor roles, that is?
Rafay Ishfaq, Associate Professor, Department of Supply Chain Management, Auburn University 10:01
Yes, and I think part of that automation value proposition has shifted in favor of doing it that way—just the sheer rise in e-commerce and omnichannel, and we are moving product flows in smaller quantities that require more labor. So, from a volume standpoint, automation in the warehouses is making a lot of sense, as far—as well as adding technology from machine learning and artificial intelligence to be able to automate day-to-day workflow so that we can enable managers to actually spend more of their time on strategic initiatives and improving their their supply chains in general.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly10:47
Well, great, thank you so much, Rafay, for joining us today and I'd like to thank our audience for tuning in on some important topics that we are all struggling with. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast so that you can keep up to date with the episodes as they release. Thank you again.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:05
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
The launch is based on “Amazon Nova,” the company’s new generation of foundation models, the company said in a blog post. Data scientists use foundation models (FMs) to develop machine learning (ML) platforms more quickly than starting from scratch, allowing them to create artificial intelligence applications capable of performing a wide variety of general tasks, since they were trained on a broad spectrum of generalized data, Amazon says.
The new models are integrated with Amazon Bedrock, a managed service that makes FMs from AI companies and Amazon available for use through a single API. Using Amazon Bedrock, customers can experiment with and evaluate Amazon Nova models, as well as other FMs, to determine the best model for an application.
Calling the launch “the next step in our AI journey,” the company says Amazon Nova has the ability to process text, image, and video as prompts, so customers can use Amazon Nova-powered generative AI applications to understand videos, charts, and documents, or to generate videos and other multimedia content.
“Inside Amazon, we have about 1,000 Gen AI applications in motion, and we’ve had a bird’s-eye view of what application builders are still grappling with,” Rohit Prasad, SVP of Amazon Artificial General Intelligence, said in a release. “Our new Amazon Nova models are intended to help with these challenges for internal and external builders, and provide compelling intelligence and content generation while also delivering meaningful progress on latency, cost-effectiveness, customization, information grounding, and agentic capabilities.”
The new Amazon Nova models available in Amazon Bedrock include:
Amazon Nova Micro, a text-only model that delivers the lowest latency responses at very low cost.
Amazon Nova Lite, a very low-cost multimodal model that is lightning fast for processing image, video, and text inputs.
Amazon Nova Pro, a highly capable multimodal model with the best combination of accuracy, speed, and cost for a wide range of tasks.
Amazon Nova Premier, the most capable of Amazon’s multimodal models for complex reasoning tasks and for use as the best teacher for distilling custom models
Amazon Nova Canvas, a state-of-the-art image generation model.
Amazon Nova Reel, a state-of-the-art video generation model that can transform a single image input into a brief video with the prompt: dolly forward.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Grocers and retailers are struggling to get their systems back online just before the winter holiday peak, following a software hack that hit the supply chain software provider Blue Yonder this week.
The ransomware attack is snarling inventory distribution patterns because of its impact on systems such as the employee scheduling system for coffee stalwart Starbucks, according to a published report. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Blue Yonder provides a wide range of supply chain software, including warehouse management system (WMS), transportation management system (TMS), order management and commerce, network and control tower, returns management, and others.
Blue Yonder today acknowledged the disruptions, saying they were the result of a ransomware incident affecting its managed services hosted environment. The company has established a dedicated cybersecurity incident update webpage to communicate its recovery progress, but it had not been updated for nearly two days as of Tuesday afternoon. “Since learning of the incident, the Blue Yonder team has been working diligently together with external cybersecurity firms to make progress in their recovery process. We have implemented several defensive and forensic protocols,” a Blue Yonder spokesperson said in an email.
The timing of the attack suggests that hackers may have targeted Blue Yonder in a calculated attack based on the upcoming Thanksgiving break, since many U.S. organizations downsize their security staffing on holidays and weekends, according to a statement from Dan Lattimer, VP of Semperis, a New Jersey-based computer and network security firm.
“While details on the specifics of the Blue Yonder attack are scant, it is yet another reminder how damaging supply chain disruptions become when suppliers are taken offline. Kudos to Blue Yonder for dealing with this cyberattack head on but we still don’t know how far reaching the business disruptions will be in the UK, U.S. and other countries,” Lattimer said. “Now is time for organizations to fight back against threat actors. Deciding whether or not to pay a ransom is a personal decision that each company has to make, but paying emboldens threat actors and throws more fuel onto an already burning inferno. Simply, it doesn’t pay-to-pay,” he said.
The incident closely followed an unrelated cybersecurity issue at the grocery giant Ahold Delhaize, which has been recovering from impacts to the Stop & Shop chain that it across the U.S. Northeast region. In a statement apologizing to customers for the inconvenience of the cybersecurity issue, Netherlands-based Ahold Delhaize said its top priority is the security of its customers, associates and partners, and that the company’s internal IT security staff was working with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to speed recovery. “Our teams are taking steps to assess and mitigate the issue. This includes taking some systems offline to help protect them. This issue and subsequent mitigating actions have affected certain Ahold Delhaize USA brands and services including a number of pharmacies and certain e-commerce operations,” the company said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on November 27 to indicate that the cybersecurity issue at Ahold Delhaize was unrelated to the Blue Yonder hack.
The new funding brings Amazon's total investment in Anthropic to $8 billion, while maintaining the e-commerce giant’s position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic. The partnership was launched in 2023, when Amazon invested its first $4 billion round in the firm.
Anthropic’s “Claude” family of AI assistant models is available on AWS’s Amazon Bedrock, which is a cloud-based managed service that lets companies build specialized generative AI applications by choosing from an array of foundation models (FMs) developed by AI providers like AI21 Labs, Anthropic, Cohere, Meta, Mistral AI, Stability AI, and Amazon itself.
According to Amazon, tens of thousands of customers, from startups to enterprises and government institutions, are currently running their generative AI workloads using Anthropic’s models in the AWS cloud. Those GenAI tools are powering tasks such as customer service chatbots, coding assistants, translation applications, drug discovery, engineering design, and complex business processes.
"The response from AWS customers who are developing generative AI applications powered by Anthropic in Amazon Bedrock has been remarkable," Matt Garman, AWS CEO, said in a release. "By continuing to deploy Anthropic models in Amazon Bedrock and collaborating with Anthropic on the development of our custom Trainium chips, we’ll keep pushing the boundaries of what customers can achieve with generative AI technologies. We’ve been impressed by Anthropic’s pace of innovation and commitment to responsible development of generative AI, and look forward to deepening our collaboration."