Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Dale Rogers from Arizona State University on the threat from failing to digitize
To digitize or not to digitize, that is the question. How can companies balance the risk of implementing new technologies with the risk of falling behind competitors?
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Dale Rogers is the ON Semiconductor Professor of Business in the Supply Chain Management Department at Arizona State University (ASU). He is also the Director of the Frontier Economies Logistics Lab and the Co-Director of the Internet edge Supply Chain Lab at ASU. He is the recipient of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals 2021 Distinguished Service Award.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats comes opportunities. Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats.
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Today, we focus on the threat posed by failing to digitize supply chains. Here's your moderator for this segment, Supply Chain Quarterly’s managing editor, Diane Rand.
Thank you for joining us for the latest edition of Supply Chain Quarterly’s podcast series on the top 10 threats to supply chains. Today, we will take a look at the risks of digitization—more specifically, the risks involved in not implementing digital technologies into your supply chain and the risks involved in implementing technology but maybe not doing it correctly. We are joined today by Dale Rogers of Arizona State University where he is the director of the Frontier Economics Logistics Lab; co-director of the Internet Edge Supply Chain Lab; and executive director of CARISCA, which stands for the Center for Applied Research and Innovation in Supply Chain-Africa. Dale, thank you so much for joining us. One of the many research programs that you're involved with is the Internet Edge Supply Chain Lab at Arizona State University. What sort of risks do companies face as they implement new technologies, such as those that you study on the Internet Edge?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 02:40
You know, it's interesting, I think. I think this is the time of greatest change in my whole career. There's incredible technological changes—and I'm old, by the way, so I've been around for a long time—and I can't believe how much stuff is happening, and I think companies don't really have a choice. You get left behind very quickly, and truthfully, adopting, I think, autonomous—which involves AI—autonomous digitization, or digitalization, of the supply chain, I think that's pretty important, actually, because the way that you buy software, the way that you implement systems, all of that stuff is changing pretty quickly.
So is digitization the one good way to mitigate some of those, you know, risks?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 03:42
Well, the idea really is that you're going to do new, modern types of systems, some utilizing nonstandard data, unstructured data; better statistics, which really comes through the AI. You're using lots of different tools that are sort of above and beyond the old ERP systems, and, you know, special, what we used to call point systems that sit outside your main system and do all sorts of things, like, for example, reverse logistics, or, you know, different types of supply chain planning, or managing the shelf and using sort of advanced tools that have greater statistical power and are really empowered by greater computing power. All of that stuff is really transforming how we manage supply chains. You can do a lot a lot more sort of automatically. So, I think a good kind of analogy to it is, you know, for 100 years, when you would drive, you would get a paper map, and then for about what, 15, maybe, you would automate it by using Siri and Google Maps and, you know, those kinds of things, and now, very quickly, we're moving to autonomous vehicles. And I live in the Phoenix area, and Google has a division called Waymo, and Waymo has autonomous cars. And a really weird thing that happened to me the other day: I pulled up next to a Waymo vehicle, and there was no driver. So, they were just driving. I didn't know we were doing that. But so...
So what can be done to mitigate implementation risks for those companies looking to...
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 06:09
You know, it's not so much big investments. A lot of moving, digitizing your supply chain management is actually not nearly as costly as those giant ERP projects were back in the late '90s, early 2000s. So, it's way different than putting in an ERP, and there's a lot of affordable solutions. But you got to be aware of it, you got to understand it, and, you know, one of the things a lot of firms are doing—I'm sure you're aware of this—is putting in place a CDO—a chief data officer. So, in addition to the CIO—maybe they report to the CIO—but you have a chief data officer that actually is in charge of all the different places where data is. Another big issue around sort of new systems is cybersecurity as well.
A whole a different topic that we could delve into, for sure. What sort of risks do companies face by not implementing new digital technologies into their supply chain operations?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 07:22
Well, so, so digital technologies really transformed the cost. So, there's a lot of things you can do, and you don't need those expensive, clunky, really heavy systems. You can do things in a light fashion. Just think about AWS, or, you know, Microsoft Du Jour, or the IBM Cloud or Google Cloud, and how those revolutionized the cost, because all of a sudden, you can buy it by the drink, and it's really cheap to get a sliver of a server, and you can use different types of software. It's a whole way of operating. So, for example, 10 years ago, if you were starting up a company, you'd have a pretty big chunk of your budget, maybe up to 40%, around the IT costs. Well, today, your IT costs would be expected to be no more than 15% because of, sort of, these advanced digital tools that allow you to get up and running at a very low cost. So, a private equity firm can fund three companies where they used to be able to fund one, because systems are different than they used to be.
So, how can companies go about balancing those, you know, two risks, you know: the risk of implementing new technology, and it going horribly wrong, and the risk of not implementing the new technologies and falling behind competitors?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 09:05
Well, you know, I think part of it is, I don't I don't think you want to implement huge, big systems. I don't think you should be doing that anymore. I think these are smaller, smaller-size systems, you know.? It's kind of like the difference between a car and a 747. You know, I think you can just take a little drink of water, and the risk is lower, but it also is a[n] easier to manage project, generally, because it's smaller
Have these risks around implementing digital technologies changed in the last 18 months since the beginning of the pandemic?
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 09:49
Well, there's a lot more remote and mobile. There's a you know, we manage things via Zoom or Teams or something, and so, absolutely, we're using technology in different ways, and we've seen a lot of shifts happen at the same time. So, this shift to e-commerce, which really was big this past year. We see a shift of working remotely. We see incredible sort of constipation of the logistics systems, you know, lots of ships docked outside of the Port of L.A., and difficulty getting trucks, and all these kinds of things that sort of, together, are shifting how we manage supply chains.
It's really incredible how much has changed in just such a short amount of time.
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 10:49
I think we're going to see a lot more change. You know, you can really see whether we like it or not, a decoupling from China. So, you know, there was this mass move in the '90s, 2000s, "Let's let's source everything from Asia, particularly China," and we're seeing that really change. Some of it's political reasons, both here and also in in China, but a lot of it is just logistics difficulty. So, you know, I think in the last couple of weeks, container costs, coming into the Port of L.A. from Shanghai, like 20 grand, well, if the stuff in the container's only worth 50, you can't afford to do that.
It's definitely challenging times for the supply chain industry, but also exciting in a sense that a lot of new things are going to come about because of it. Well, Dale, thank you so much for your time today, and we really appreciate having you.
Dale Rogers, Professor of Business, Supply Chain Management Department, Arizona State University 11:53
Thank you. Nice to be with you.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly11:56
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
The launch is based on “Amazon Nova,” the company’s new generation of foundation models, the company said in a blog post. Data scientists use foundation models (FMs) to develop machine learning (ML) platforms more quickly than starting from scratch, allowing them to create artificial intelligence applications capable of performing a wide variety of general tasks, since they were trained on a broad spectrum of generalized data, Amazon says.
The new models are integrated with Amazon Bedrock, a managed service that makes FMs from AI companies and Amazon available for use through a single API. Using Amazon Bedrock, customers can experiment with and evaluate Amazon Nova models, as well as other FMs, to determine the best model for an application.
Calling the launch “the next step in our AI journey,” the company says Amazon Nova has the ability to process text, image, and video as prompts, so customers can use Amazon Nova-powered generative AI applications to understand videos, charts, and documents, or to generate videos and other multimedia content.
“Inside Amazon, we have about 1,000 Gen AI applications in motion, and we’ve had a bird’s-eye view of what application builders are still grappling with,” Rohit Prasad, SVP of Amazon Artificial General Intelligence, said in a release. “Our new Amazon Nova models are intended to help with these challenges for internal and external builders, and provide compelling intelligence and content generation while also delivering meaningful progress on latency, cost-effectiveness, customization, information grounding, and agentic capabilities.”
The new Amazon Nova models available in Amazon Bedrock include:
Amazon Nova Micro, a text-only model that delivers the lowest latency responses at very low cost.
Amazon Nova Lite, a very low-cost multimodal model that is lightning fast for processing image, video, and text inputs.
Amazon Nova Pro, a highly capable multimodal model with the best combination of accuracy, speed, and cost for a wide range of tasks.
Amazon Nova Premier, the most capable of Amazon’s multimodal models for complex reasoning tasks and for use as the best teacher for distilling custom models
Amazon Nova Canvas, a state-of-the-art image generation model.
Amazon Nova Reel, a state-of-the-art video generation model that can transform a single image input into a brief video with the prompt: dolly forward.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Grocers and retailers are struggling to get their systems back online just before the winter holiday peak, following a software hack that hit the supply chain software provider Blue Yonder this week.
The ransomware attack is snarling inventory distribution patterns because of its impact on systems such as the employee scheduling system for coffee stalwart Starbucks, according to a published report. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Blue Yonder provides a wide range of supply chain software, including warehouse management system (WMS), transportation management system (TMS), order management and commerce, network and control tower, returns management, and others.
Blue Yonder today acknowledged the disruptions, saying they were the result of a ransomware incident affecting its managed services hosted environment. The company has established a dedicated cybersecurity incident update webpage to communicate its recovery progress, but it had not been updated for nearly two days as of Tuesday afternoon. “Since learning of the incident, the Blue Yonder team has been working diligently together with external cybersecurity firms to make progress in their recovery process. We have implemented several defensive and forensic protocols,” a Blue Yonder spokesperson said in an email.
The timing of the attack suggests that hackers may have targeted Blue Yonder in a calculated attack based on the upcoming Thanksgiving break, since many U.S. organizations downsize their security staffing on holidays and weekends, according to a statement from Dan Lattimer, VP of Semperis, a New Jersey-based computer and network security firm.
“While details on the specifics of the Blue Yonder attack are scant, it is yet another reminder how damaging supply chain disruptions become when suppliers are taken offline. Kudos to Blue Yonder for dealing with this cyberattack head on but we still don’t know how far reaching the business disruptions will be in the UK, U.S. and other countries,” Lattimer said. “Now is time for organizations to fight back against threat actors. Deciding whether or not to pay a ransom is a personal decision that each company has to make, but paying emboldens threat actors and throws more fuel onto an already burning inferno. Simply, it doesn’t pay-to-pay,” he said.
The incident closely followed an unrelated cybersecurity issue at the grocery giant Ahold Delhaize, which has been recovering from impacts to the Stop & Shop chain that it across the U.S. Northeast region. In a statement apologizing to customers for the inconvenience of the cybersecurity issue, Netherlands-based Ahold Delhaize said its top priority is the security of its customers, associates and partners, and that the company’s internal IT security staff was working with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to speed recovery. “Our teams are taking steps to assess and mitigate the issue. This includes taking some systems offline to help protect them. This issue and subsequent mitigating actions have affected certain Ahold Delhaize USA brands and services including a number of pharmacies and certain e-commerce operations,” the company said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on November 27 to indicate that the cybersecurity issue at Ahold Delhaize was unrelated to the Blue Yonder hack.
The new funding brings Amazon's total investment in Anthropic to $8 billion, while maintaining the e-commerce giant’s position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic. The partnership was launched in 2023, when Amazon invested its first $4 billion round in the firm.
Anthropic’s “Claude” family of AI assistant models is available on AWS’s Amazon Bedrock, which is a cloud-based managed service that lets companies build specialized generative AI applications by choosing from an array of foundation models (FMs) developed by AI providers like AI21 Labs, Anthropic, Cohere, Meta, Mistral AI, Stability AI, and Amazon itself.
According to Amazon, tens of thousands of customers, from startups to enterprises and government institutions, are currently running their generative AI workloads using Anthropic’s models in the AWS cloud. Those GenAI tools are powering tasks such as customer service chatbots, coding assistants, translation applications, drug discovery, engineering design, and complex business processes.
"The response from AWS customers who are developing generative AI applications powered by Anthropic in Amazon Bedrock has been remarkable," Matt Garman, AWS CEO, said in a release. "By continuing to deploy Anthropic models in Amazon Bedrock and collaborating with Anthropic on the development of our custom Trainium chips, we’ll keep pushing the boundaries of what customers can achieve with generative AI technologies. We’ve been impressed by Anthropic’s pace of innovation and commitment to responsible development of generative AI, and look forward to deepening our collaboration."