Top 10 Supply Chain Threats: Steve Geary of Supply Chain Visions on how to assess your own risk level
In this conclusion our podcast series on supply chain threats, we learn how companies can assess which threats and risks are most pressing to their own operations.
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Transcript
About this week's guest
Steve Geary is the President of Supply Chain Visions Inc. He works around the globe solving business challenges at every level of complexity, from small and local to large companies with global reach. His clients range from small manufacturing and retail enterprises to multinational giants. Geary holds a BS and a Master's in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from Cornell University and an MBA from the Johnson School at Cornell University. His performance has been recognized by the Deputy Secretary of Defense for exceptional contribution to the defense of our nation. He is a regular contributor and editor for a number of publications, including Supply Chain Quarterly’s sister publication, DC Velocity.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly00:02
The Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how vulnerable supply chains are. Today we face many threats: shipping delays; a lack of workers; failing infrastructure; transportation rates that are out of control; cybersecurity threats; and of course, a worldwide pandemic that is still very much with us. But with each of these threats come opportunities.
Welcome to this limited podcast series from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. Today, we focus on the failure to properly assess risks. Here's your moderator for this segment, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly’s executive editor, Susan Lacefield.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly00:49
Welcome to the final episode of Supply Chain Quarterly’s inaugural podcast on the top 10 threats to supply chains. Today, we are joined by global supply chain experts Steve Geary president of Supply Chain Visions family of companies and Supply Chain Quarterly columnist. Coincidentally, Steve and I are hanging out today at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' Edge conference, where Steve has been chairing a track of educational sessions on supply chain risk management. Steve, in the previous episodes, we've been highlighting some of the top risks that are facing supply chains these days, and I just was wondering if you can briefly highlight what you feel are some of the top threats today?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 01:32
Well, I think what's become clear during the pandemic is that there are too many accountants in the room. And for years, there has been a blurring of the lines. And that somehow, the definition of "best-value supply chain" became "low-cost supply chain"...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly01:56
Yes!
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 01:57
...and those two are not the same thing. To me, a best-value supply chain is resilient, it's diverse, and it's secure, and I guarantee you those three things, you put them together, they will not be the low-cost supply chain. So, you can't get hung up on economic best value; you've got to look at strategic best value, and there's a tug of war going on in boardrooms around the country now, because, as we suffer through the pandemic, people are realizing what relying on a supply chain that reaches across the Pacific really means in terms of resilience, because it's not.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:39
Great. So a lot of the threats we're seeing are from having the the global supply chain where we were, we're chasing cost instead of value.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 02:47
We were chasing cost, thinking that was value, and cost and value are not the same thing. It's the eternal tug of war that supply chain folks have always had with the accountants.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly02:58
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 02:59
We speak different languages, and the challenge for us is we have to understand their language and we have to translate what we mean by "best value" into terms they would understand. It's a market basket; it's not an item.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:13
Ah, right. Great. So obviously, as his companies evaluate the risks that they are seeing, how do they decide which ones to focus on?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:24
You can't be myopic. What people often do, is they look to their suppliers.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:32
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:33
But we live in complex supply chains now.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:36
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:37
We don't have a supplier anymore. We have a wedding cake, ...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly03:41
Yes, good.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 03:41
... and it doesn't matter to me which teir fails. If any teir or fails, the cake falls, and the cake can fall and the teir can fall with the failure of an individual supplier. So, what you have to do is collaborate across the teirs.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:00
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:01
You have to work with your suppliers and partner with your suppliers ,and oftentimes, they're not going to be very excited about revealing some of the information, because it's their proprietary information. Maybe you bring in a third party. Maybe you provide them with an audit that they can, "Please do this audit, you can take the company's name off of it, and then we can discuss it." You pick the high-risk tracks and you start there. You have to—you can't do it all at once, but find your high-risk tracks, reach out to your next-tier suppliers, have them reach out to their next-tier suppliers, and it's just the wedding cake.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:40
Okay. So, obviously you want your suppliers at your—at the table while you decide what those top risks are. Who else should you be talking to?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:47
You should be talking to your customers as well.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly04:49
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 04:50
Because you have to understand, just like there's risks going down, there's risks going up. You need to, I mean, because we all line up our supply chains based on our understanding of what demand will be. Well, how brittle is that demand?
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:06
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:06
Will it shatter? And that is a conversation that you need to have with your customers as well, and you may be able to help them with that. It may prove to be a market opportunity. So, you look left and you look right. It's just like when you were a little kid crossing the street. Look both ways before you cross.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:27
Yes, but these are very difficult conversations. Any ways on how to broach those topics in a way that's not going to put people on the defensive?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:36
Well, it's the old movie line, "Show me the money."
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:39
Okay. Okay. We're back to accountants now.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:43
We are back to accountants, but at the end of the day, the game is scored by the money.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly05:47
Okay, yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 05:49
And so, I still talk about value propositions and assessing my supply chain, which is different from the way that the accountants may talk about it, but the unit of measure is still money.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:00
Okay. Do companies need to think about risk management differently these days than they did, maybe, before the pandemic hit? Or is it the same?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:12
Well, I'm being careful in my words, because I never want to tell somebody that they're wrong...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:18
Right.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:18
... and I never want to tell somebody that they need to think differently, because that implies that they're wrong.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:24
Good point.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:25
But I might say that they may need to think more holistically.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:28
Okay, good.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:29
Broaden the horizon, broaden your sight picture.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:33
Okay.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:34
It's bigger than you historically thought it was.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:36
All right. Any suggestions on some blind spots companies have had about not thinking holistically like areas that they haven't traditionally looked at?
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:47
China.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:48
Okay. That's a big one. Yeah.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:50
That's a huge one. It's, everyone went to China.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly06:52
Yeah.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 06:54
It is—it's crazy how reliant we are on China now, and that's putting all of your eggs in one basket.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:03
Yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:04
Or the—I just—we were talking before about my recent purchase of a car...
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:09
Yes.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:10
... and the car shortage that exists because of the lack of chips, because all chips—I won't say all chips—the vast preponderance of chips going in automobiles come from Taiwan. And now suddenly, you can't—there is a restricted supply of new automobiles in this country, and depending on who you talk to, it's going to be months to a year before that is finally resolved. That's just—people weren't—they weren't doing a mixed bundle in their basket.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly07:40
Okay. So, think holistically; keep—add seats to the table [for] people to talk to, and that's, are two good first steps to take when broadening your your risk management,
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 07:55
You have to—and you have to establish a common vocabulary with the accountants, because the ultimate score keepers in any company are the accountants, and if they don't understand what you're talking about, you will continue to talk past one another. You have to establish a common understanding of what "best value" is and how you're going to measure it, and understand that that's different from "lowest cost."
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:27
Perfect. Steve, thanks so much for taking some time to sit down with us today, and I hope we will talk to you again soon.
Steve Geary, President, Supply Chain Visions 08:34
It's always a pleasure. Thank you for the opportunity.
Susan Lacefield, Executive Editor, Supply Chain Quarterly08:36
Thanks, Steve.
David Maloney, Editorial Director, CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly08:37
Thank you for joining us for this podcast from CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, the Top 10 Supply Chain Threats. We encourage you to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
The launch is based on “Amazon Nova,” the company’s new generation of foundation models, the company said in a blog post. Data scientists use foundation models (FMs) to develop machine learning (ML) platforms more quickly than starting from scratch, allowing them to create artificial intelligence applications capable of performing a wide variety of general tasks, since they were trained on a broad spectrum of generalized data, Amazon says.
The new models are integrated with Amazon Bedrock, a managed service that makes FMs from AI companies and Amazon available for use through a single API. Using Amazon Bedrock, customers can experiment with and evaluate Amazon Nova models, as well as other FMs, to determine the best model for an application.
Calling the launch “the next step in our AI journey,” the company says Amazon Nova has the ability to process text, image, and video as prompts, so customers can use Amazon Nova-powered generative AI applications to understand videos, charts, and documents, or to generate videos and other multimedia content.
“Inside Amazon, we have about 1,000 Gen AI applications in motion, and we’ve had a bird’s-eye view of what application builders are still grappling with,” Rohit Prasad, SVP of Amazon Artificial General Intelligence, said in a release. “Our new Amazon Nova models are intended to help with these challenges for internal and external builders, and provide compelling intelligence and content generation while also delivering meaningful progress on latency, cost-effectiveness, customization, information grounding, and agentic capabilities.”
The new Amazon Nova models available in Amazon Bedrock include:
Amazon Nova Micro, a text-only model that delivers the lowest latency responses at very low cost.
Amazon Nova Lite, a very low-cost multimodal model that is lightning fast for processing image, video, and text inputs.
Amazon Nova Pro, a highly capable multimodal model with the best combination of accuracy, speed, and cost for a wide range of tasks.
Amazon Nova Premier, the most capable of Amazon’s multimodal models for complex reasoning tasks and for use as the best teacher for distilling custom models
Amazon Nova Canvas, a state-of-the-art image generation model.
Amazon Nova Reel, a state-of-the-art video generation model that can transform a single image input into a brief video with the prompt: dolly forward.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Grocers and retailers are struggling to get their systems back online just before the winter holiday peak, following a software hack that hit the supply chain software provider Blue Yonder this week.
The ransomware attack is snarling inventory distribution patterns because of its impact on systems such as the employee scheduling system for coffee stalwart Starbucks, according to a published report. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Blue Yonder provides a wide range of supply chain software, including warehouse management system (WMS), transportation management system (TMS), order management and commerce, network and control tower, returns management, and others.
Blue Yonder today acknowledged the disruptions, saying they were the result of a ransomware incident affecting its managed services hosted environment. The company has established a dedicated cybersecurity incident update webpage to communicate its recovery progress, but it had not been updated for nearly two days as of Tuesday afternoon. “Since learning of the incident, the Blue Yonder team has been working diligently together with external cybersecurity firms to make progress in their recovery process. We have implemented several defensive and forensic protocols,” a Blue Yonder spokesperson said in an email.
The timing of the attack suggests that hackers may have targeted Blue Yonder in a calculated attack based on the upcoming Thanksgiving break, since many U.S. organizations downsize their security staffing on holidays and weekends, according to a statement from Dan Lattimer, VP of Semperis, a New Jersey-based computer and network security firm.
“While details on the specifics of the Blue Yonder attack are scant, it is yet another reminder how damaging supply chain disruptions become when suppliers are taken offline. Kudos to Blue Yonder for dealing with this cyberattack head on but we still don’t know how far reaching the business disruptions will be in the UK, U.S. and other countries,” Lattimer said. “Now is time for organizations to fight back against threat actors. Deciding whether or not to pay a ransom is a personal decision that each company has to make, but paying emboldens threat actors and throws more fuel onto an already burning inferno. Simply, it doesn’t pay-to-pay,” he said.
The incident closely followed an unrelated cybersecurity issue at the grocery giant Ahold Delhaize, which has been recovering from impacts to the Stop & Shop chain that it across the U.S. Northeast region. In a statement apologizing to customers for the inconvenience of the cybersecurity issue, Netherlands-based Ahold Delhaize said its top priority is the security of its customers, associates and partners, and that the company’s internal IT security staff was working with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to speed recovery. “Our teams are taking steps to assess and mitigate the issue. This includes taking some systems offline to help protect them. This issue and subsequent mitigating actions have affected certain Ahold Delhaize USA brands and services including a number of pharmacies and certain e-commerce operations,” the company said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on November 27 to indicate that the cybersecurity issue at Ahold Delhaize was unrelated to the Blue Yonder hack.
The new funding brings Amazon's total investment in Anthropic to $8 billion, while maintaining the e-commerce giant’s position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic. The partnership was launched in 2023, when Amazon invested its first $4 billion round in the firm.
Anthropic’s “Claude” family of AI assistant models is available on AWS’s Amazon Bedrock, which is a cloud-based managed service that lets companies build specialized generative AI applications by choosing from an array of foundation models (FMs) developed by AI providers like AI21 Labs, Anthropic, Cohere, Meta, Mistral AI, Stability AI, and Amazon itself.
According to Amazon, tens of thousands of customers, from startups to enterprises and government institutions, are currently running their generative AI workloads using Anthropic’s models in the AWS cloud. Those GenAI tools are powering tasks such as customer service chatbots, coding assistants, translation applications, drug discovery, engineering design, and complex business processes.
"The response from AWS customers who are developing generative AI applications powered by Anthropic in Amazon Bedrock has been remarkable," Matt Garman, AWS CEO, said in a release. "By continuing to deploy Anthropic models in Amazon Bedrock and collaborating with Anthropic on the development of our custom Trainium chips, we’ll keep pushing the boundaries of what customers can achieve with generative AI technologies. We’ve been impressed by Anthropic’s pace of innovation and commitment to responsible development of generative AI, and look forward to deepening our collaboration."