When its original logistics and procurement model threatened to constrain its rapid growth, the U.K.-based coffee retailer went all-in: new leadership, new supply chain strategy, new logistics provider, and new software. Here's how it all paid off.
Costa Express was created to serve this need in 2011 when the Whitbread Group, the largest hospitality company in the United Kingdom and owner of Costa Coffee, acquired Coffee Nation, a provider of self-service coffee concessions. The new company, Costa Express, partners on a revenue-sharing basis with retailers that service public places like airports, railway stations, hospitals, universities, convenience stores, gas stations, and offices, enabling them to profit from the growing consumer demand for premium coffee "on the go" as well as the strong Costa brand. (Costa Coffee is the largest coffee retailer in the U.K.) Costa Express provides its partners with up-to-date, self-service coffee machines and regularly restocks the coffee and supplies, so very little investment is required to get the business up and running.
After achieving early success in its first year, Costa Express set ambitious plans to increase the number of machines in operation—what it refers to as its "estate" —from 900 to 3,000 by 2016, and at the same time to expand internationally.
For months after the 2011 launch, the business was pushed to the limit as the existing machine estate was rebranded from Coffee Nation to Costa Express, and new partners signed on. Because it was necessary to justify Whitbread's UK £60-million investment, the business was feeling the pressure to grow rapidly.
In April 2012, the company realized that in order to deal with all the expected growth, it would need to make some changes to the way it managed its supply chain. That was when I joined Costa Express, specifically to fill the newly created position of supply chain manager and to join a strengthened operational leadership team. Prior to that time, there had been no dedicated supply chain function in the company. Instead, traditional purchasing and logistics activities were split between the finance and engineering teams.
One of my first tasks was to identify three fundamental supply chain functions that were driving the business. These were:
Managing and replenishing coffee-making ingredients to partner sites
Procuring and maintaining spare-parts inventory
Effectively managing the process of procuring new Costa Express machines and preparing them to be installed at customer sites
For the purposes of this article, I will describe how we managed the first and most critical of these three functions: managing the ingredients supply chain.
Drawbacks of the old model
Costa Express's distinctive model involves pushing coffee-making supplies out to our partner sites free of charge, and then sharing the revenue collected. When I joined the company, the finance team carried out this replenishment activity with support from trained employees known as "Brand Guardians," who work in the field. The Brand Guardians' job was to train partners, replenish stock for them, and give them advice on how to maximize sales and improve the coffee experience for the customer.
In order to sustain this unique model during a phase of significant growth, Costa Express would need tight control over and visibility into its supply chain. Central to this would be an awareness of exactly when and how much stock needs to be replenished at each partner site, so that money would not be wasted on excess inventory or unnecessary logistics activities. That meant Costa Express would need to understand not just aggregated order information, but also the size and frequency of the individual orders.
To support this need for order-line-level detail, Costa Express's self-service coffee bars were equipped with integrated telemetry that provided real-time reporting on machine performance and beverage sales. These systems had a twofold purpose: to prevent waste and theft, and to improve service by ensuring that the bars were always being stocked to meet demand.
The system that informed replenishment decisions comprised thousands of linked spreadsheets that contained detailed information for each site and product. Based on the size of our partner network, the system had multiplied to host more than 50,000 replenishment combinations and was edging toward 100,000 as new sites were added. One thing that greatly concerned me: Despite having invested in coffee machines with built-in programs designed to provide real-time sales data, Costa Express could not take advantage of this capability because our spreadsheet system could not extract, consolidate, and present up-to-the-minute data.
The next area I examined within the ingredients supply chain was logistics. Our current logistics provider was furnishing a full service: purchasing all of our ingredients, managing direct relationships with the suppliers, and invoicing for the full product value and logistics costs at point of delivery. Although this setup might have worked well in the beginning, it meant we had very few direct relationships with ingredients suppliers, making it difficult to negotiate and communicate changes we wanted to make as our business grew.
It became clear to me that in order to deliver sustained growth, we would have to transform our supply chain and redefine roles within the wider business ... and quickly!
A fresh start
During my first month (April 2012), it was clear that I needed to make some changes without delay. These initial changes would lay the foundation for the rest of the strategic changes that would be necessary. I therefore immediately moved responsibility for partner replenishment from finance to the new supply chain team. This change would ensure that partner replenishment would receive the right amount of attention during the transformation. I next undertook a review of providers of replenishment and demand planning software, which included looking at how we could tap into our valuable telemetry data and use this to maintain the inventories at partner sites.
In June 2012, I initiated a tender process designed to seek out a new logistics partner. This process included reviewing relationships with suppliers and assessing whether Costa Express should start to purchase ingredients directly from suppliers.
By November 2012, my team and I had come up with both a new replenishment planning tool and a new logistics provider, Howard Tenens, and planned to have them both up and running by January 2013. As part of this plan, we had decided to start purchasing ingredients directly. By doing so, we would be able to negotiate and control our costs more effectively as our volumes grew.
Howard Tenens collects stock from suppliers (including coffee beans, flavored syrups, cups, lids, stirrers, and napkins), stores it in a central warehouse, and delivers stock as needed to Costa Express partners. Besides enabling us to purchase ingredients directly, having a new logistics partner has simplified our logistics model. Our previous model was more distributed, with one central warehouse and nine regional ones. Now that we hold everything in one central location, we are able to make more next-day deliveries. Another advantage is that Howard Tenens runs most of its fleet on either dual fuel (combined gas and diesel) or biomethane fuel. This means we are on track to save approximately 73 metric tons of carbon emissions in our first year working together. We have also started working with another division of Howard Tenens to support our coffee machine-installation logistics.
Despite initial reservations within the business, I was adamant it would be best to implement these changes all at once instead of sequentially, challenging the conventional wisdom. This meant that by January 2013 we were in the midst of three major supply chain changes: a new IT system, a new logistics provider, and a new purchasing process.
As part of the new IT system, we chose a software application from ToolsGroup called SO99+ that manages key supply chain planning processes, including demand planning, demand sensing, and inventory optimization. We chose it because it could help us improve forecast accuracy while at the same time maintaining high customer service levels with less inventory. This went live in January 2013 as planned and was fundamental to the enabling of other changes involving both people and processes.
Before implementing that application, Costa Express had used the spreadsheet system to estimate how much inventory to supply to each site, using a calculation based on current stock holding and average cup sales. The new system allows us to compare the actual sales data to the levels of stock on hand at the sites, a feature that gives far better visibility and control. The system uses sales data (produced every four minutes) collected from each of the 3,000 machines to identify trends and forecast future demand. It then calculates how the demand is likely to vary, and therefore how much backup stock must be kept at each site. Finally, the system creates a schedule for resupplying the right amount of inventory to each site in order to maximize availability without overstocking. All of this is done automatically and in the cloud.
The new system allowed the business to make an important fourth change: redefining the role of the Brand Guardians. Because the software was so much faster, more accurate, and easier to use than the old spreadsheet system, these people were able to take on the new role of Brand Excellence Advisors, whose main responsibility today is helping partners sell more effectively and deliver a great customer experience. With this new role, the Advisors help to increase sales, improve service quality, troubleshoot if necessary, and, in general, enhance the overall Costa Express experience for the customer.
Savings in six months
Just six months after going live with the new IT system, new third-party logistics provider, and new purchasing processes, we measured some very significant operational savings, including:
20-percent reduction in field stock being held at partner sites
50-percent fewer delivery refusals by our partners
Centralized stock-holding locations reduced from nine to one
Developed direct purchasing relationships with 15 suppliers providing 50+ stock-keeping units (SKUs)
Negotiated new product prices and pack sizes, leading to a reduction in the purchase price of some items
30-percent reduction in annual logistics operating costs, and associated annual carbon dioxide (CO2) savings of 70 metric tons
Costa Express has been able to significantly reduce the quantity and value of inventory at each partner site. Previously, the average site was expected to stock well over 20 cases of various items. This has now been reduced to approximately 12 cases, just one case of each item. (Although we have approximately 50 SKUs, individual sites typically use 15 or fewer. For example, there are three different types of stirrers, but a site will use only one.)
Costa Express also needs to make managing stock as simple as possible, employees can focus on serving customers and increasing sales. This new system has given our partners the confidence that their stock will be replenished efficiently and in a timely manner, so that they can get on with running their businesses.
Along with the changes to the Brand Excellence Advisor role, statistics show that our Net Promoter Score, a popular customer-loyalty metric, grew by more than 10 percent in a six-month period. Furthermore, overall satisfaction and reuse scores (the likelihood of a customer using our services again) grew by 5 percentage points, and recommendation levels (the likelihood of a customer recommending our services) were up 6 percentage points.
A foundation for sustainable growth
When Whitbread acquired Coffee Nation, the target was to have 3,000 machines in place by 2016. The changes made in Costa Express's supply chain, including the implementation of the new software, has enabled it to achieve this target in 2013, a full three years ahead of schedule. With the help of our new systems, processes, and roles, we are confident that we can grow internationally while maintaining confidence in the brand with top quality and great service. Already, I have been part of a team that has helped Costa Express to install new machines in Poland, under the "Coffee Heaven" brand, and we will soon introduce Costa Express to Ireland.
The company is also about to embark on two important new projects. Firstly, Costa Express is now part of a new business-to-business division called Costa Enterprises. I will be responsible for managing an enlarged supply chain for Costa Enterprises, which comprises more than 7,000 locations worldwide and dispenses more than 100 million cups of coffee a year.
Secondly, in January we launched our new CEM-200 "intelligent" coffee station concession, based on advanced technology from Intel, Microsoft, and Bsquare. These multimedia machines will be placed in high-end properties, starting in Dubai. I will be responsible for the supply chain elements of bringing this multimillion-pound innovation to the U.K. and international markets. Along with those projects, we are also reviewing ToolsGroup's software with an eye toward using it to manage Costa Express's spare-parts supply chain, which utilizes three different coffee machine manufacturers, each at different stages of the product lifecycle.
Quite simply, without the changes implemented throughout the Costa Express supply chain, the U.K. business would have struggled to grow at the pace it has. Costa Express's supply chain systems are now firmly situated to sustain both U.K. and international growth. We have turned supplier and customer relationships into true team efforts. Partners at both ends of the Costa Express supply chain are engaged. Suppliers understand Costa Express's requirements, and we work together to mutual advantage. Partners who maintain the machines and sell the coffee are experiencing the kind of efficient, worry-free service levels that allow them to focus on running their businesses. With this foundation in place, I believe we are solidly positioned to sustain our growth while maintaining a trusted and highly respected premium coffee brand.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.