When its original logistics and procurement model threatened to constrain its rapid growth, the U.K.-based coffee retailer went all-in: new leadership, new supply chain strategy, new logistics provider, and new software. Here's how it all paid off.
Costa Express was created to serve this need in 2011 when the Whitbread Group, the largest hospitality company in the United Kingdom and owner of Costa Coffee, acquired Coffee Nation, a provider of self-service coffee concessions. The new company, Costa Express, partners on a revenue-sharing basis with retailers that service public places like airports, railway stations, hospitals, universities, convenience stores, gas stations, and offices, enabling them to profit from the growing consumer demand for premium coffee "on the go" as well as the strong Costa brand. (Costa Coffee is the largest coffee retailer in the U.K.) Costa Express provides its partners with up-to-date, self-service coffee machines and regularly restocks the coffee and supplies, so very little investment is required to get the business up and running.
After achieving early success in its first year, Costa Express set ambitious plans to increase the number of machines in operation—what it refers to as its "estate" —from 900 to 3,000 by 2016, and at the same time to expand internationally.
For months after the 2011 launch, the business was pushed to the limit as the existing machine estate was rebranded from Coffee Nation to Costa Express, and new partners signed on. Because it was necessary to justify Whitbread's UK £60-million investment, the business was feeling the pressure to grow rapidly.
In April 2012, the company realized that in order to deal with all the expected growth, it would need to make some changes to the way it managed its supply chain. That was when I joined Costa Express, specifically to fill the newly created position of supply chain manager and to join a strengthened operational leadership team. Prior to that time, there had been no dedicated supply chain function in the company. Instead, traditional purchasing and logistics activities were split between the finance and engineering teams.
One of my first tasks was to identify three fundamental supply chain functions that were driving the business. These were:
Managing and replenishing coffee-making ingredients to partner sites
Procuring and maintaining spare-parts inventory
Effectively managing the process of procuring new Costa Express machines and preparing them to be installed at customer sites
For the purposes of this article, I will describe how we managed the first and most critical of these three functions: managing the ingredients supply chain.
Drawbacks of the old model
Costa Express's distinctive model involves pushing coffee-making supplies out to our partner sites free of charge, and then sharing the revenue collected. When I joined the company, the finance team carried out this replenishment activity with support from trained employees known as "Brand Guardians," who work in the field. The Brand Guardians' job was to train partners, replenish stock for them, and give them advice on how to maximize sales and improve the coffee experience for the customer.
In order to sustain this unique model during a phase of significant growth, Costa Express would need tight control over and visibility into its supply chain. Central to this would be an awareness of exactly when and how much stock needs to be replenished at each partner site, so that money would not be wasted on excess inventory or unnecessary logistics activities. That meant Costa Express would need to understand not just aggregated order information, but also the size and frequency of the individual orders.
To support this need for order-line-level detail, Costa Express's self-service coffee bars were equipped with integrated telemetry that provided real-time reporting on machine performance and beverage sales. These systems had a twofold purpose: to prevent waste and theft, and to improve service by ensuring that the bars were always being stocked to meet demand.
The system that informed replenishment decisions comprised thousands of linked spreadsheets that contained detailed information for each site and product. Based on the size of our partner network, the system had multiplied to host more than 50,000 replenishment combinations and was edging toward 100,000 as new sites were added. One thing that greatly concerned me: Despite having invested in coffee machines with built-in programs designed to provide real-time sales data, Costa Express could not take advantage of this capability because our spreadsheet system could not extract, consolidate, and present up-to-the-minute data.
The next area I examined within the ingredients supply chain was logistics. Our current logistics provider was furnishing a full service: purchasing all of our ingredients, managing direct relationships with the suppliers, and invoicing for the full product value and logistics costs at point of delivery. Although this setup might have worked well in the beginning, it meant we had very few direct relationships with ingredients suppliers, making it difficult to negotiate and communicate changes we wanted to make as our business grew.
It became clear to me that in order to deliver sustained growth, we would have to transform our supply chain and redefine roles within the wider business ... and quickly!
A fresh start
During my first month (April 2012), it was clear that I needed to make some changes without delay. These initial changes would lay the foundation for the rest of the strategic changes that would be necessary. I therefore immediately moved responsibility for partner replenishment from finance to the new supply chain team. This change would ensure that partner replenishment would receive the right amount of attention during the transformation. I next undertook a review of providers of replenishment and demand planning software, which included looking at how we could tap into our valuable telemetry data and use this to maintain the inventories at partner sites.
In June 2012, I initiated a tender process designed to seek out a new logistics partner. This process included reviewing relationships with suppliers and assessing whether Costa Express should start to purchase ingredients directly from suppliers.
By November 2012, my team and I had come up with both a new replenishment planning tool and a new logistics provider, Howard Tenens, and planned to have them both up and running by January 2013. As part of this plan, we had decided to start purchasing ingredients directly. By doing so, we would be able to negotiate and control our costs more effectively as our volumes grew.
Howard Tenens collects stock from suppliers (including coffee beans, flavored syrups, cups, lids, stirrers, and napkins), stores it in a central warehouse, and delivers stock as needed to Costa Express partners. Besides enabling us to purchase ingredients directly, having a new logistics partner has simplified our logistics model. Our previous model was more distributed, with one central warehouse and nine regional ones. Now that we hold everything in one central location, we are able to make more next-day deliveries. Another advantage is that Howard Tenens runs most of its fleet on either dual fuel (combined gas and diesel) or biomethane fuel. This means we are on track to save approximately 73 metric tons of carbon emissions in our first year working together. We have also started working with another division of Howard Tenens to support our coffee machine-installation logistics.
Despite initial reservations within the business, I was adamant it would be best to implement these changes all at once instead of sequentially, challenging the conventional wisdom. This meant that by January 2013 we were in the midst of three major supply chain changes: a new IT system, a new logistics provider, and a new purchasing process.
As part of the new IT system, we chose a software application from ToolsGroup called SO99+ that manages key supply chain planning processes, including demand planning, demand sensing, and inventory optimization. We chose it because it could help us improve forecast accuracy while at the same time maintaining high customer service levels with less inventory. This went live in January 2013 as planned and was fundamental to the enabling of other changes involving both people and processes.
Before implementing that application, Costa Express had used the spreadsheet system to estimate how much inventory to supply to each site, using a calculation based on current stock holding and average cup sales. The new system allows us to compare the actual sales data to the levels of stock on hand at the sites, a feature that gives far better visibility and control. The system uses sales data (produced every four minutes) collected from each of the 3,000 machines to identify trends and forecast future demand. It then calculates how the demand is likely to vary, and therefore how much backup stock must be kept at each site. Finally, the system creates a schedule for resupplying the right amount of inventory to each site in order to maximize availability without overstocking. All of this is done automatically and in the cloud.
The new system allowed the business to make an important fourth change: redefining the role of the Brand Guardians. Because the software was so much faster, more accurate, and easier to use than the old spreadsheet system, these people were able to take on the new role of Brand Excellence Advisors, whose main responsibility today is helping partners sell more effectively and deliver a great customer experience. With this new role, the Advisors help to increase sales, improve service quality, troubleshoot if necessary, and, in general, enhance the overall Costa Express experience for the customer.
Savings in six months
Just six months after going live with the new IT system, new third-party logistics provider, and new purchasing processes, we measured some very significant operational savings, including:
20-percent reduction in field stock being held at partner sites
50-percent fewer delivery refusals by our partners
Centralized stock-holding locations reduced from nine to one
Developed direct purchasing relationships with 15 suppliers providing 50+ stock-keeping units (SKUs)
Negotiated new product prices and pack sizes, leading to a reduction in the purchase price of some items
30-percent reduction in annual logistics operating costs, and associated annual carbon dioxide (CO2) savings of 70 metric tons
Costa Express has been able to significantly reduce the quantity and value of inventory at each partner site. Previously, the average site was expected to stock well over 20 cases of various items. This has now been reduced to approximately 12 cases, just one case of each item. (Although we have approximately 50 SKUs, individual sites typically use 15 or fewer. For example, there are three different types of stirrers, but a site will use only one.)
Costa Express also needs to make managing stock as simple as possible, employees can focus on serving customers and increasing sales. This new system has given our partners the confidence that their stock will be replenished efficiently and in a timely manner, so that they can get on with running their businesses.
Along with the changes to the Brand Excellence Advisor role, statistics show that our Net Promoter Score, a popular customer-loyalty metric, grew by more than 10 percent in a six-month period. Furthermore, overall satisfaction and reuse scores (the likelihood of a customer using our services again) grew by 5 percentage points, and recommendation levels (the likelihood of a customer recommending our services) were up 6 percentage points.
A foundation for sustainable growth
When Whitbread acquired Coffee Nation, the target was to have 3,000 machines in place by 2016. The changes made in Costa Express's supply chain, including the implementation of the new software, has enabled it to achieve this target in 2013, a full three years ahead of schedule. With the help of our new systems, processes, and roles, we are confident that we can grow internationally while maintaining confidence in the brand with top quality and great service. Already, I have been part of a team that has helped Costa Express to install new machines in Poland, under the "Coffee Heaven" brand, and we will soon introduce Costa Express to Ireland.
The company is also about to embark on two important new projects. Firstly, Costa Express is now part of a new business-to-business division called Costa Enterprises. I will be responsible for managing an enlarged supply chain for Costa Enterprises, which comprises more than 7,000 locations worldwide and dispenses more than 100 million cups of coffee a year.
Secondly, in January we launched our new CEM-200 "intelligent" coffee station concession, based on advanced technology from Intel, Microsoft, and Bsquare. These multimedia machines will be placed in high-end properties, starting in Dubai. I will be responsible for the supply chain elements of bringing this multimillion-pound innovation to the U.K. and international markets. Along with those projects, we are also reviewing ToolsGroup's software with an eye toward using it to manage Costa Express's spare-parts supply chain, which utilizes three different coffee machine manufacturers, each at different stages of the product lifecycle.
Quite simply, without the changes implemented throughout the Costa Express supply chain, the U.K. business would have struggled to grow at the pace it has. Costa Express's supply chain systems are now firmly situated to sustain both U.K. and international growth. We have turned supplier and customer relationships into true team efforts. Partners at both ends of the Costa Express supply chain are engaged. Suppliers understand Costa Express's requirements, and we work together to mutual advantage. Partners who maintain the machines and sell the coffee are experiencing the kind of efficient, worry-free service levels that allow them to focus on running their businesses. With this foundation in place, I believe we are solidly positioned to sustain our growth while maintaining a trusted and highly respected premium coffee brand.
The North American robotics market saw a decline in both units ordered (down 7.9% to 15,705 units) and revenue (down 6.8% to $982.83 million) during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, as North American manufacturers faced ongoing economic headwinds, according to a report from the Association for Advancing Automation (A3).
“Rising inflation and borrowing costs have dampened spending on robotics, with many companies opting to delay major investments,” said Jeff Burnstein, president, A3. “Despite these challenges, the push for operational efficiency and workforce augmentation continues to drive demand for robotics in industries such as food and consumer goods and life sciences, among others. As companies navigate labor shortages and increased production costs, the role of automation is becoming ever more critical in maintaining global competitiveness.”
The downward trend was led by weakness in automotive manufacturing, which traditionally leads the charge in buying robots. In the first half of 2024, automotive OEMs ordered 4,159 units (up 14.4%) but generated revenue of $259.96 million (down 12.0%). The Automotive Components sector was even worse, orders 3,574 units (down 38.8%) for $191.93 million in revenue (down 27.3%). Declines also happened in the Semiconductor & Electronics/Photonics sector and the Plastics & Rubber sector.
On the positive side, Food & Consumer Goods companies ordered 1,173 units (up 85.6%) for $62.84 million in revenue (up 56.2%). This growth reflects the increasing reliance on robotics for efficiency in food processing and packaging as companies seek to address labor shortages and rising costs, A3 said. And the Life Sciences industry ordered 1,007 units (up 47.9%) for revenue of $47.29 million (up 86.7%) as it continued its reliance on robotics for efficiency and precision.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded for the 10th straight month in September, reaching its highest reading in two years, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The LMI registered 58.6, up more than two points from August’s reading and its highest level since September 2022.
The LMI is a monthly measure of business activity across warehousing and transportation markets. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The September data is proof the industry is “back on solid footing” according to the LMI researchers, who pointed to expanding inventory levels driven by a long-expected restocking among retailers gearing up for peak-season demand. That shift is also reflected in higher rates of both warehousing and transportation prices among retailers and other downstream firms—a signal that “retail supply chains are whirring back into motion” for peak.
“The fact that peak season is happening at all should be a bit of a relief for the logistics industry—and economy as a whole—since we have not really seen a traditional seasonal peak since 2021,” the researchers wrote. “… or possibly even 2019, if you don’t consider 2020 or 2021 to be ‘normal.’”
The East Coast dock worker strike earlier this week threatened to complicate that progress, according to LMI researcher Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University. Those fears were eased Thursday following a tentative agreement between the union and port operators that would put workers at dozens of ports back on the job Friday.
“We will have normal peak season demand—our first normal seasonality year in the 2020s,” Rogers said in a separate interview, noting that the port of New York and New Jersey had its busiest month on record this past July. “Inventories are moving now, downstream. That, to me, is an encouraging sign.”
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Dockworkers at dozens of U.S. East and Gulf coast ports are returning to work tonight, ending a three-day strike that had paralyzed the flow of around 50% of all imports and exports in the United States during ocean peak season.
The two groups “have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume,” the joint statement said.
Talks had broken down over the union’s twin demands for both pay hikes and a halt to increased automation in freight handling. After the previous contract expired at midnight on September 30, workers made good on their pledge to strike, and all activity screeched to a halt on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week.
Business groups immediately sang the praises of the deal, while also sounding a note of caution that more work remains.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) cheered the short-term contract extension, even as it urged the groups to forge a longer-lasting pact. “The decision to end the current strike and allow the East and Gulf coast ports to reopen is good news for the nation’s economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “It is critically important that the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance work diligently and in good faith to reach a fair, final agreement before the extension expires. The sooner they reach a deal, the better for all American families.”
Likewise, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) said it was relieved to see positive progress, but that a final deal wasn’t yet complete. “Without the specter of disruption looming, the U.S. economy can continue on its path for growth and retailers can focus on delivering for consumers. We encourage both parties to stay at the negotiating table until a final deal is reached that provides retailers and consumers full certainty that the East and Gulf Coast ports are reliable gateways for the flow of commerce.”
And the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) commended the parties for coming together while also cautioning them to avoid future disruptions by using this time to reach “a fair and lasting agreement,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in an email. “Manufacturers are encouraged that cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen. By resuming work and keeping our ports operational, they have shown a commitment to listening to the concerns of manufacturers and other industries that rely on the efficient movement of goods through these critical gateways,” Timmons said. “This decision avoids the need for government intervention and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, and it is a victory for all parties involved—preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains, and preventing further economic disruptions.”
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.