The less-than-truckload (LTL) industry moved closer to a revamped freight classification system this week, as the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) continued to spread the word about upcoming changes to the way it helps shippers and carriers determine delivery rates. The NMFTA will publish proposed changes to its National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system Thursday, a transition announced last year, and that the organization has termed its “classification reimagination” process.
Businesses throughout the LTL industry will be affected by the changes, as the NMFC is a tool for setting prices that is used daily by transportation providers, trucking fleets, third party logistics service providers (3PLs), and freight brokers.
Representatives from NMFTA were on hand to discuss the changes at the LTL-focused supply chain conference Jump Start 25 in Atlanta this week. The project’s goal is to make what is currently a complex freight classification system easier to understand and “to make the logistics process as frictionless as possible,” NMFTA’s Director of Operations Keith Peterson told attendees during a presentation about the project.
The changes seek to simplify classification by grouping similar items together and assigning most classes based solely on density. Exceptions will be handled separately, adding other characteristics when density alone is not enough to determine an accurate class.
When the updates take effect later this year, shippers may see shifts in the LTL prices they pay to move freight—because the way their freight is classified, and subsequently billed, could change as a result.
NMFTA will publish the proposed changes this Thursday, January 30, in a document called Docket 2025-1. The docket will include more than 90 proposed changes and is open to industry feedback through February 25. NMFTA will follow with a public meeting to review and discuss feedback on March 3. The changes will take effect July 19.
NMFTA has a dedicated website detailing the changes, where industry stakeholders can register to receive bi-weekly updates: https://info.nmfta.org/2025-nmfc-changes.
Both shippers and carriers feel growing urgency for the logistics industry to agree on a common standard for key performance indicators (KPIs), as the sector’s benchmarks have continued to evolve since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to research from freight brokerage RXO.
The feeling is nearly universal, with 87% of shippers and 90% of carriers agreeing that there should be set KPI industry standards, up from 78% and 74% respectively in 2022, according to results from “The Logistics Professional’s Guide to KPIs,” an RXO research study conducted in collaboration with third-party research firm Qualtrics.
"Managing supply chain data is incredibly important, but it’s not easy. What technology to use, which metrics to track, where to set benchmarks, how to leverage data to drive action – modern logistics professionals grapple with all these challenges,” Ben Steffes, VP of Solutions & Strategy at RXO, said in a release.
Additional results from the survey showed that shippers are more data-driven than they were in the past; 86% of shippers reference their logistics KPIs at least weekly (up from 79% in 2022), and 45% of shippers reference them daily (up from 32% in 2022).
Despite that sharpened focus, performance benchmarks have become slightly more lenient, the survey showed. Industry performance standards for core transportation KPIs—such as on-time performance, payables, and tender acceptance—are generally consistent with 2022, but the underlying data shows a tendency to be a bit more forgiving, RXO said.
One solution is to be a shipper-of-choice for your chosen carriers. That strategy can enable better rates and more capacity, as RXO found 95% of carriers said inefficient shipping practices impact the rates they give to shippers, and 99% of carriers take a shipper’s KPI expectations into account before agreeing to move a shipment.
“KPIs are essential for effective supply chain management and continuous improvement, and they’re always evolving,” Steffes said. “Shifts in consumer demand and an influx of technology are driving this change, in combination with the dynamic and fragmented nature of the freight market. To optimize performance, businesses need consistent measurement and reporting. We released this study to help shippers and carriers benchmark their standards against how their peers approach KPIs today.”
“Consumers pulled back in January, taking a breather after a stronger-than-expected holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the report. “Despite the monthly decline, the year-over-year increases reflect overall consumer strength as a strong job market and wage gains above the rate of inflation continue to support spending. We’re seeing a ‘choiceful’ and value-conscious consumer who is rotating spending across goods and services and essentials and non-essentials, boosting some sectors while causing challenges in others.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 1.07% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.44% unadjusted year over year in January, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 1.74% month over month and 7.24% year over year in December.
Likewise, the Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was down 1.27% month over month in January but up 5.72% year over year. That compared with increases of 2.19% month over month and 8.41% year over year in December.
NRF says that unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, its Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
As U.S. businesses count down the days until the expiration of the Trump Administration’s monthlong pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a report from Uber Freight says the tariffs will likely be avoided through an extended agreement, since the potential for damaging consequences would be so severe for all parties.
If the tariffs occurred, they could push U.S. inflation higher, adding $1,000 to $1,200 to the average person's cost of living. And relief from interest rates would likely not come to the rescue, since inflation is already above the Fed's target, delaying further rate cuts.
A potential impact of the tariffs in the long run might be to boost domestic freight by giving local manufacturers an edge. However, the magnitude and sudden implementation of these tariffs means we likely won't see such benefits for a while, and the immediate damage will be more significant in the meantime, Uber Freight said in its “2025 Q1 Market update & outlook.”
That market volatility comes even as tough times continue in the freight market. In the U.S. full truckload sector, the cost per loaded mile currently exceeds spot rates significantly, which will likely push rate increases.
However, in the first quarter of 2025, spot rates are now falling, as they usually do in February following the winter peak. According to Uber Freight, this situation arose after truck operating costs rose 2 cents/mile in 2023 despite a 9-cent diesel price decline, thanks to increases in insurance (+13%), truck and trailer costs (+9%), and driver wages (+8%). Costs then fell 2 cents/mile in 2024, resulting in stable costs over the past two years.
Fortunately, Uber Freight predicts that the freight cycle could soon begin to turn, as signs of a recovery are emerging despite weak current demand. A measure of manufacturing growth called the ISM PMI edged up to 50.9 in December, surpassing the expansion threshold for the first time in 26 months.
Accordingly, new orders and production increased while employment stabilized. That means the U.S. manufacturing economy appears to be expanding after a prolonged period of contraction, signaling a positive outlook for freight demand, Uber Freight said.
The surge comes as the U.S. imposed a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods as of February 4, while pausing a more aggressive 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada until March, Descartes said in its “February Global Shipping Report.”
So far, ports are handling the surge well, with overall port transit time delays not significantly lengthening at the top 10 U.S. ports, despite elevated volumes for a seventh consecutive month. But the future may look more cloudy; businesses with global supply chains are coping with heightened uncertainty as they eye the new U.S. tariffs on China, continuing trade policy tensions, and ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Descartes said.
“The impact of new and potential tariffs, coupled with a late Chinese Lunar New Year (January 29 – February 12), may have contributed to higher U.S. container imports in January,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “These trade policy developments add significant uncertainty to global supply chains, increasing concerns about rising import costs and supply chain disruptions. As trade tensions escalate, businesses and consumers alike may face the risk of higher prices and prolonged market volatility.”
Part of the reason for that situation is that companies can’t adjust to tariffs overnight by finding new suppliers. “Supply chains are complex. Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release.
“While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families,” Gold said. “Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact at ports because most imports from either country move by truck, rail or pipeline. In the long term, tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could prompt an increase in direct maritime imports to the U.S. In the meantime, port cargo “could be badly hit” if tariffs on overseas Asian and European nations increase prices and prompt consumers to buy less, he said.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” Hackett said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in December, although the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 0.9% from November but up 14.4% year over year, and would be the busiest December on record. For the year, December brought 2024 to a total of 25.5 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record of 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.