Global logistics real estate rents drooped in 2024 as an overheated market reset after years of outperformance, according to a report from real estate giant Prologis.
By the numbers, global logistics real estate rents declined by 5% last year as market conditions “normalized” after historic growth during the pandemic. After more than a decade overall of consistent growth, the change was driven by rising real estate vacancy rates up in most markets, Prologis said. The three causes for that condition included an influx of new building supply, coupled with positive but subdued demand, and uncertainty about conditions in the economic, financial market, and supply chain sectors.
Together, those factors triggered negative annual rent growth in the U.S. and Europe for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, the “Prologis Rent Index Report” said. Still, that dip was smaller than pandemic-driven outperformance, so year-end 2024 market rents were 59% higher in the U.S. and 33% higher in Europe than year-end 2019.
Looking into coming months, Prologis expects moderate recovery in market rents in 2025 and stronger gains in 2026. That eventual recovery in market rents will require constrained supply, high replacement cost rents, and demand for Class A properties, Prologis said. In addition, a stronger demand resurgence—whether prompted by the need to navigate supply chain disruptions or meet the needs of end consumers—should put upward pressure on a broad range of locations and building types.
