Commentary: Wanted: A viable all-water route from Asia to the U.S. Midwest
Despite its potential benefits and easy access to a large consumer market, container shipping on the Mississippi River has not taken off. Entities that stand to benefit the most need to band together, and strong leadership will be required to make it happen.
[Figure 1] The St. Louis region as a gateway to the Midwest Enlarge this image
[Figure 2] Self-propelled river ship used on European rivers
(Photo: Freek van Arkel; courtesy Port of Rotterdam) Enlarge this image
[Figure 3] Containers on self-propelled river ships on Yangtze River in China (Photo: courtesy of the author) Enlarge this image
[Figure 4] Barges being pushed by towboat; barges can easily hold containers (Photo: Wikimedia) Enlarge this image
In the central United States, there is a magnificent stretch of waterway that is ready and available to be put to greater use: the Mississippi River between New Orleans, Louisiana, and St. Louis, Missouri. This unique segment of open river has no locks or dams, and it is ice-free all year round.
This presents opportunities to move ocean containers from Asia to the U.S. Midwest entirely by water. From ports in Asia, containers could travel through the Panama Canal to the Port of New Orleans, and then via river vessels up the Mississippi to the St. Louis region for further distribution into the Midwest (Figure 1).
North of St. Louis, the river—like most other waterways in the U.S.—is full of locks and dams, which restricts the size of the tows and vessels and complicates transit time and the predictability of shipment deliveries. For these reasons, the New Orleans-to-St. Louis segment is ideal for getting container activity started on the waterways.
This route offers easy access to a large consumer market as well as an opportunity to lower costs, diversify and manage risk, and build a supply chain network that matches, and takes advantage of, the actual supply chain requirements of their products. It's also greener than other modes of transportation. The New Orleans-to-St. Louis portion of the river is already a major traffic lane for bulk commodities carried by barge. Much of that volume consists of agricultural products; in fact, the St. Louis region is often referred to as the "Agricultural Coast" of America.
Yet shippers of containerized cargo are not taking advantage of this option. Given all its advantages, why are shippers reluctant to make use of this tremendously underutilized resource? And what will it take to make the New Orleans-to-St. Louis stretch of the river a more attractive and viable route for both shippers and carriers of containerized cargo?
A "chicken or the egg" problem
There are several reasons container shippers have not embraced the Mississippi River route. One is that the transit time for this routing is longer than coming through West Coast ports and moving via intermodal rail to the Midwest.
Speed is often less important than people assume, however, and it turns out that many items do not require fast transit times and would be good candidates for using a river container service. For example, seasonal items generally are purchased well in advance of need, and products are received over time and held in storage until the season arrives. Another category is items having highly predictable demand. If a company can reliably sell one container's worth of an item per week, and it can reliably receive one container per week, then (if we ignore carrying cost) the in-transit time doesn't matter. Low-value items, particularly bulky ones, and project freight, which includes items that are accumulated and staged for specific projects, are also good candidates. Examples of the latter include construction material, machinery, and inventory for new manufacturing locations, distribution centers, or stores.
Another roadblock for shippers is the lack of service options. Other than a shuttle service between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, there is virtually no container service on the Mississippi River. At present, ocean container service from Asia to New Orleans also is limited. The containers that are arriving in New Orleans are primarily destined for the immediate South Central region and are matched with outbound containers from that region.
Clearly we have a "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" problem—in other words, a vicious cycle. Without regular, reliable service, shippers won't commit to moving their containers on the river. And without sufficient, guaranteed container volumes, carriers won't commit to providing service. The carriers also worry about imbalances between inbound and outbound containers. But this may not be a major problem, as the region is already generating international outbound containers, particularly of agricultural products, that could balance the inbound containers. These exports currently are going out of West Coast and East Coast ports and could instead be routed through New Orleans.
There is a way to break this cycle. What we need now is a consortium of shippers who are willing to commit to route sufficient volumes of inbound and outbound containers between New Orleans and the Midwest. That will prompt more ocean carriers to call on New Orleans, and more frequent and faster service will emerge. With enough demand, container service could quickly develop on the Mississippi.
Why should shippers be interested?
It would be to shippers' benefit to support such a service. Arguably, the St. Louis region can serve as the natural gateway from the south for nine states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. These nine states make up 20 percent of the U.S. population—a sizable and attractive market.
There are over 20 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) entering the United States annually, with maybe 4 million of those destined for the nine-state region mentioned above. Even if just 5 percent of the containers bound for the Midwest were routed through New Orleans, that would be about 200,000 TEUs annually—enough to draw river and ocean carriers' interest. Considering that large river container ships hold approximately 500 TEUs, we are talking about 400 trips per year, or eight trips per week (Figures 2 and 3). In reality we would expect a mix of large, medium, and smaller river container ships, and the overall frequency of service would be higher. Alternatively, barges hold 72 TEUs, which equates to 2,800 barges per year, or 56 barges per week. These container barges could be combined with barges carrying bulk commodities in a tow (Figure 4).
The St. Louis region already offers a complete range of logistics infrastructure. In addition to the Mississippi River, the region has six Class I railroads, making it the third largest rail hub in the United States. Four interstate highways provide direct access in all directions. Other infrastructure advantages include two international cargo airports, readily available warehousing and distribution capacity, and industrial real estate of all types.
There are a number of other reasons an all-water route up the Mississippi would benefit companies that serve markets in the Midwest. They include:
Reduced transportation costs. For items where speed is not important, shippers would have the option of using a cheaper alternative. By matching the routing with the true delivery needs of the product being shipped, they would not have to pay for faster transit times when they don't actually need that kind of service.
Moving containers from the West Coast to the Midwest by rail requires one flatcar for every two forty-foot containers (or transloaded domestic containers), plus railroad tracks, all requiring capital investment and maintenance. Moving containers from New Orleans to the St. Louis region by the Mississippi River, by contrast, has lower underlying costs. This route requires only a barge or a small ship where all of the containers could be stacked on the vessel and secured. There are opportunities to move containers on existing barges and towboats where no modifications would be required, or on self-powered river ships designed for containers. In comparison to shipping through West and East Coast ports, there will be additional ocean miles to New Orleans, but the incremental ocean carrier rates are relatively small.
Since such a river service does not currently exist, all of the costs and benefits are unknown, but we can certainly expect the cost will drop as volumes increase.
Better management of risk. For shippers, an important responsibility is to manage and mitigate risk. Examples of such risks include labor problems at a key port or multiple ports, congestion in and around ports, weather and fires affecting crucial areas where operations are located, and flooding or freezing on rail routes.
Some supply chain risk can be managed with inventory, but it's also important to have multiple transportation options on an ongoing basis. For that reason, shippers need to have diversification and redundancies on the major transportation lanes, like Asia to the Midwest. The all-water route would help to provide that.
Re-optimization of networks. Supply chain infrastructure and distribution and logistics networks are changing. Networks are larger and more complex than ever before, with separate networks that overlay each other at different points and for different purposes. There are different types of facilities based on the physical size of products and frequency of demand: high-volume cross-docks and slow-moving inventory locations, import distribution centers and temperature-controlled warehouses, facilities designed for outbound delivery to distribution centers, to stores, to consumers, or to all of the above.
These ongoing changes mean that many companies will have to re-optimize their distribution networks in the future. Having alternative transportation routes available would help shippers to make the best network design decisions. In particular, it would allow shippers to match the various inbound speed requirements of a company's entire portfolio of products to the most cost-effective transportation options.
Greener transportation. There is growing interest in transportation alternatives that could reduce the need to build and maintain additional highways and bridges. By using an all-water route, which makes use of a naturally existing infrastructure that does not require significant ongoing maintenance like highways, bridges, and railroads do, shippers will have an opportunity to support the build-out of an environment-friendly, national infrastructure of inland waterways specifically for containers. With a growing population expected to lead to even greater infrastructure congestion in the future, expanding the use of the waterways will be a necessity in the coming decades.
What will it take? A group effort
If both shippers' and carriers' needs are met, container volumes could eventually grow significantly. But no single shipper could consistently provide enough volume to meet carriers' requirements. To get things started, we need a consortium of shippers who will, as a group, commit to diverting a sufficient number of containers from the West Coast to New Orleans. By sufficient, I mean two things: enough containers that the availability of ocean services from Asia to New Orleans will increase, and enough containers that Mississippi River service can be developed and sustainably supported.
The consortium of shippers could include a few large companies or a larger number of smaller companies. With their commitments in place, they could then begin to have serious discussions with ocean and river carriers to figure out how to make it work for all parties.
Multimodal transportation, however, involves many different stakeholders. (See the sidebar, below, for a list of organizations that have previously contributed to discussions about container service on the Mississippi.) In addition to shippers and carriers, other key players in this initiative would include the Port of New Orleans; America's Central Port, a container port in Granite City, Illinois, directly across the river from St. Louis; local container drayage companies; and freight forwarders.
But it won't happen without strong leadership. So, who is going to lead?
The answer may depend on who stands to benefit the most from an all-water container service to the Midwest. There are many candidates. Shippers certainly benefit from lower costs and a new alternative to manage risk. The St. Louis region has an opportunity to differentiate itself and enhance its position as a major logistics center. Barge companies have an opportunity to develop a new business adjacent to their current business. Entrepreneurs have an opportunity to create a container business for the U.S. waterways. Ocean carriers can view New Orleans as a potential new market opportunity. Getting containers on the riverways will satisfy the long-term desires of several governmental and industry groups. For appropriate trade groups, this could be a great strategic initiative. A leading management consulting firm may see this as an opportunity to make a big impact.
I think it would be difficult for shippers to provide the necessary leadership, unless one of our very largest shippers decides to take this on. More likely, it would be one of the other groups identified above. But I think for an all-water route to move forward, the critical next step will be for strong leadership to step forward. Regardless of who takes the lead, however, it will still be necessary for the many stakeholders to actively participate in and support the initiative.
Acknowledgements
The organizations below actively participated and contributed to better understanding the possibilities of moving containers on our river ways. The professionals from these groups provided active support, wealth of experience and knowledge, and opinions. This article, however, does not imply their agreement or endorsement.
St. Louis Regional Freightway
America's Central Port
Ingram Barge
St. Louis Port Authority
University of Missouri - St. Louis
St. Louis Regional Chamber
Mississippi River Cities & Towns Initiative (MRCTI)
St. Louis University
Port of New Orleans
Giltner St. Louis
Inland Rivers, Ports, and Terminals (IRPT)
Weekends Only
CH Robinson
UniGroup
SCF Marine
Maritime Administration (MARAD)
Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP)
Benefits for Amazon's customers--who include marketplace retailers and logistics services customers, as well as companies who use its Amazon Web Services (AWS) platform and the e-commerce shoppers who buy goods on the website--will include generative AI (Gen AI) solutions that offer real-world value, the company said.
The launch is based on “Amazon Nova,” the company’s new generation of foundation models, the company said in a blog post. Data scientists use foundation models (FMs) to develop machine learning (ML) platforms more quickly than starting from scratch, allowing them to create artificial intelligence applications capable of performing a wide variety of general tasks, since they were trained on a broad spectrum of generalized data, Amazon says.
The new models are integrated with Amazon Bedrock, a managed service that makes FMs from AI companies and Amazon available for use through a single API. Using Amazon Bedrock, customers can experiment with and evaluate Amazon Nova models, as well as other FMs, to determine the best model for an application.
Calling the launch “the next step in our AI journey,” the company says Amazon Nova has the ability to process text, image, and video as prompts, so customers can use Amazon Nova-powered generative AI applications to understand videos, charts, and documents, or to generate videos and other multimedia content.
“Inside Amazon, we have about 1,000 Gen AI applications in motion, and we’ve had a bird’s-eye view of what application builders are still grappling with,” Rohit Prasad, SVP of Amazon Artificial General Intelligence, said in a release. “Our new Amazon Nova models are intended to help with these challenges for internal and external builders, and provide compelling intelligence and content generation while also delivering meaningful progress on latency, cost-effectiveness, customization, information grounding, and agentic capabilities.”
The new Amazon Nova models available in Amazon Bedrock include:
Amazon Nova Micro, a text-only model that delivers the lowest latency responses at very low cost.
Amazon Nova Lite, a very low-cost multimodal model that is lightning fast for processing image, video, and text inputs.
Amazon Nova Pro, a highly capable multimodal model with the best combination of accuracy, speed, and cost for a wide range of tasks.
Amazon Nova Premier, the most capable of Amazon’s multimodal models for complex reasoning tasks and for use as the best teacher for distilling custom models
Amazon Nova Canvas, a state-of-the-art image generation model.
Amazon Nova Reel, a state-of-the-art video generation model that can transform a single image input into a brief video with the prompt: dolly forward.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.
Grocers and retailers are struggling to get their systems back online just before the winter holiday peak, following a software hack that hit the supply chain software provider Blue Yonder this week.
The ransomware attack is snarling inventory distribution patterns because of its impact on systems such as the employee scheduling system for coffee stalwart Starbucks, according to a published report. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Blue Yonder provides a wide range of supply chain software, including warehouse management system (WMS), transportation management system (TMS), order management and commerce, network and control tower, returns management, and others.
Blue Yonder today acknowledged the disruptions, saying they were the result of a ransomware incident affecting its managed services hosted environment. The company has established a dedicated cybersecurity incident update webpage to communicate its recovery progress, but it had not been updated for nearly two days as of Tuesday afternoon. “Since learning of the incident, the Blue Yonder team has been working diligently together with external cybersecurity firms to make progress in their recovery process. We have implemented several defensive and forensic protocols,” a Blue Yonder spokesperson said in an email.
The timing of the attack suggests that hackers may have targeted Blue Yonder in a calculated attack based on the upcoming Thanksgiving break, since many U.S. organizations downsize their security staffing on holidays and weekends, according to a statement from Dan Lattimer, VP of Semperis, a New Jersey-based computer and network security firm.
“While details on the specifics of the Blue Yonder attack are scant, it is yet another reminder how damaging supply chain disruptions become when suppliers are taken offline. Kudos to Blue Yonder for dealing with this cyberattack head on but we still don’t know how far reaching the business disruptions will be in the UK, U.S. and other countries,” Lattimer said. “Now is time for organizations to fight back against threat actors. Deciding whether or not to pay a ransom is a personal decision that each company has to make, but paying emboldens threat actors and throws more fuel onto an already burning inferno. Simply, it doesn’t pay-to-pay,” he said.
The incident closely followed an unrelated cybersecurity issue at the grocery giant Ahold Delhaize, which has been recovering from impacts to the Stop & Shop chain that it across the U.S. Northeast region. In a statement apologizing to customers for the inconvenience of the cybersecurity issue, Netherlands-based Ahold Delhaize said its top priority is the security of its customers, associates and partners, and that the company’s internal IT security staff was working with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to speed recovery. “Our teams are taking steps to assess and mitigate the issue. This includes taking some systems offline to help protect them. This issue and subsequent mitigating actions have affected certain Ahold Delhaize USA brands and services including a number of pharmacies and certain e-commerce operations,” the company said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on November 27 to indicate that the cybersecurity issue at Ahold Delhaize was unrelated to the Blue Yonder hack.