International trade community struggles to deal with tariff revisions
Keeping up with quickly fluctuating tariffs and trade policies requires good communication and the ability to act on short notice, according to speakers at the 2019 Northeast Cargo Symposium.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
Brenda Smith of U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the agency is workinig to make communications "as predictable and detailed as possible."
President Trump's erratic approach to the imposition of tariffs on imports from China and elsewhere is making it difficult for companies to comply with U.S. trade regulations, according to government and corporate trade officials gathered at the recent Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's (CONECT) 18th Annual Northeast Cargo Symposium in Providence, R.I. The lack of predictability and sometimes insufficient advance notice is challenging importers, customs brokers, software vendors, and even U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—the agency that assesses and collects tariff payments—to stay ahead of the changes, they said during the November 6 conference.
Choosing her words carefully, Brenda Brockman Smith, CBP's executive assistant commissioner, Office of Trade, noted in a speech to the CONECT audience that the agency is working in a "very active, changeable trade environment." Because "knowing what will happen so companies can plan is critical to U.S. economic growth," CBP is devoting resources to helping the trade community manage customs compliance in this environment, she said.
CBP is working to implement a combination of automation updates and communications to the trade community that are "as predictable and detailed as possible," Smith said. The agency has set up a special team tasked with carrying out changes related to the implementation of trade remedies such as tariffs and penalties, she also said. That unit works closely with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Commerce to coordinate information about the tariffs and enforcement, she added.
Customs is also communicating to policymakers in other areas of the federal government the impact that tariff changes are having on U.S. businesses' customs-compliance efforts—"an important role CBP can play," Smith said.
Ready or not ...
Any tariff revision requires communication, process, documentation, and IT programming updates, not only for CBP but also for importers, customs brokers, and providers of trade-compliance software. In some cases, though, the exact details aren't available until very late in the game.
In a separate conference panel discussion, Geoffrey Powell, chairman of the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), cited the example of tariffs President Trump said he would impose on imports from Mexico unless that country stemmed the flow of U.S.-bound migrants. In late May, Trump ordered the tariffs to be imposed with just 10 days' notice, and then suddenly canceled them by tweet the Friday night before the Monday effective date. "We found out one [business] day prior to the effective date that they were canceled. It's hard to get everything ready in those circumstances," Powell said.
One of the most effective strategies for managing compliance in an era of fluctuating trade policies, according to one panelist, is to have a highly structured process for quickly identifying what needs to change and communicating that information to all affected parties. This is critical in a large, multinational organization, said Barb Secor, senior director, trade compliance for the technical equipment manufacturer Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Secor related how she and her team had to quickly jump into action when the U.S. issued a ban on doing business with one of Thermo Fisher's customers, the Chinese tech giant Huawei. "Our company has 18 different divisions. We had to think about who would immediately need to know about this worldwide," she said. The trade-compliance team had developed a formal process for monitoring changes and then cascading information and related company policies to the relevant functions in all of Thermo Fisher's divisions. Local managers then follow a specified procedure for alerting affected organizations further down the ladder. Everyone is also advised where to go for more information or assistance, Secor said. This methodology has also proven effective for dealing with the changes in tariffs on Chinese goods, she added.
In many cases, international traders and software vendors must wait for CBP to issue instructions and reprogram its systems before they can make their own updates. That creates challenges for trade-compliance software vendors, said Celeste Catano, global product manager for BluJay Solutions and a licensed customs broker. CBP is sometimes unable to have its programming in place early enough for software vendors to fully test and deploy the update in advance of the effective date, she noted.
CBP's Smith acknowledged that it's difficult for all of the players to program, test, and implement changes on short notice; she advised any party that is not ready by the time tariffs or other trade-related policies go into effect to discuss their situation with CBP. "We will work with you if we know you are trying to comply and will try to help you find a solution," she said.
When asked how CBP has been affected by frequent changes in leadership at the agency as well as its parent Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), Smith said that it's a challenge to navigate the interplay of government and politics, especially in the "very interesting times" the agency is working in now. She noted that former CBP Acting Commissioner Kevin McAleenan's move to Acting DHS Secretary—a position he later resigned—had caused some disruption internally (current Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan is the second to take that position since McAleenan went to DHS in April 2019), but that everyone recognizes the need to "evolve and change to deal with change." CBP's new leadership, she added, recognizes the agency's internal expertise and trusts the staff and career officers to "keep on going ... and get the job done."
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded for the 10th straight month in September, reaching its highest reading in two years, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The LMI registered 58.6, up more than two points from August’s reading and its highest level since September 2022.
The LMI is a monthly measure of business activity across warehousing and transportation markets. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The September data is proof the industry is “back on solid footing” according to the LMI researchers, who pointed to expanding inventory levels driven by a long-expected restocking among retailers gearing up for peak-season demand. That shift is also reflected in higher rates of both warehousing and transportation prices among retailers and other downstream firms—a signal that “retail supply chains are whirring back into motion” for peak.
“The fact that peak season is happening at all should be a bit of a relief for the logistics industry—and economy as a whole—since we have not really seen a traditional seasonal peak since 2021,” the researchers wrote. “… or possibly even 2019, if you don’t consider 2020 or 2021 to be ‘normal.’”
The East Coast dock worker strike earlier this week threatened to complicate that progress, according to LMI researcher Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University. Those fears were eased Thursday following a tentative agreement between the union and port operators that would put workers at dozens of ports back on the job Friday.
“We will have normal peak season demand—our first normal seasonality year in the 2020s,” Rogers said in a separate interview, noting that the port of New York and New Jersey had its busiest month on record this past July. “Inventories are moving now, downstream. That, to me, is an encouraging sign.”
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Dockworkers at dozens of U.S. East and Gulf coast ports are returning to work tonight, ending a three-day strike that had paralyzed the flow of around 50% of all imports and exports in the United States during ocean peak season.
The two groups “have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume,” the joint statement said.
Talks had broken down over the union’s twin demands for both pay hikes and a halt to increased automation in freight handling. After the previous contract expired at midnight on September 30, workers made good on their pledge to strike, and all activity screeched to a halt on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week.
Business groups immediately sang the praises of the deal, while also sounding a note of caution that more work remains.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) cheered the short-term contract extension, even as it urged the groups to forge a longer-lasting pact. “The decision to end the current strike and allow the East and Gulf coast ports to reopen is good news for the nation’s economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “It is critically important that the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance work diligently and in good faith to reach a fair, final agreement before the extension expires. The sooner they reach a deal, the better for all American families.”
Likewise, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) said it was relieved to see positive progress, but that a final deal wasn’t yet complete. “Without the specter of disruption looming, the U.S. economy can continue on its path for growth and retailers can focus on delivering for consumers. We encourage both parties to stay at the negotiating table until a final deal is reached that provides retailers and consumers full certainty that the East and Gulf Coast ports are reliable gateways for the flow of commerce.”
And the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) commended the parties for coming together while also cautioning them to avoid future disruptions by using this time to reach “a fair and lasting agreement,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in an email. “Manufacturers are encouraged that cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen. By resuming work and keeping our ports operational, they have shown a commitment to listening to the concerns of manufacturers and other industries that rely on the efficient movement of goods through these critical gateways,” Timmons said. “This decision avoids the need for government intervention and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, and it is a victory for all parties involved—preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains, and preventing further economic disruptions.”
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.
The number of container ships waiting outside U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports has swelled from just three vessels on Sunday to 54 on Thursday as a dockworker strike has swiftly halted bustling container traffic at some of the nation’s business facilities, according to analysis by Everstream Analytics.
As of Thursday morning, the two ports with the biggest traffic jams are Savannah (15 ships) and New York (14), followed by single-digit numbers at Mobile, Charleston, Houston, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Baltimore, and Miami, Everstream said.
The impact of that clogged flow of goods will depend on how long the strike lasts, analysts with Moody’s said. The firm’s Moody’s Analytics division estimates the strike will cause a daily hit to the U.S. economy of at least $500 million in the coming days. But that impact will jump to $2 billion per day if the strike persists for several weeks.
The immediate cost of the strike can be seen in rising surcharges and rerouting delays, which can be absorbed by most enterprise-scale companies but hit small and medium-sized businesses particularly hard, a report from Container xChange says.
“The timing of this strike is especially challenging as we are in our traditional peak season. While many pulled forward shipments earlier this year to mitigate risks, stockpiled inventories will only cushion businesses for so long. If the strike continues for an extended period, we could see significant strain on container availability and shipping schedules,” Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said in a release.
“For small and medium-sized container traders, this could result in skyrocketing logistics costs and delays, making it harder to secure containers. The longer the disruption lasts, the more difficult it will be for these businesses to keep pace with market demands,” Roeloffs said.