International trade community struggles to deal with tariff revisions
Keeping up with quickly fluctuating tariffs and trade policies requires good communication and the ability to act on short notice, according to speakers at the 2019 Northeast Cargo Symposium.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
Brenda Smith of U.S. Customs and Border Protection says the agency is workinig to make communications "as predictable and detailed as possible."
President Trump's erratic approach to the imposition of tariffs on imports from China and elsewhere is making it difficult for companies to comply with U.S. trade regulations, according to government and corporate trade officials gathered at the recent Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's (CONECT) 18th Annual Northeast Cargo Symposium in Providence, R.I. The lack of predictability and sometimes insufficient advance notice is challenging importers, customs brokers, software vendors, and even U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)—the agency that assesses and collects tariff payments—to stay ahead of the changes, they said during the November 6 conference.
Choosing her words carefully, Brenda Brockman Smith, CBP's executive assistant commissioner, Office of Trade, noted in a speech to the CONECT audience that the agency is working in a "very active, changeable trade environment." Because "knowing what will happen so companies can plan is critical to U.S. economic growth," CBP is devoting resources to helping the trade community manage customs compliance in this environment, she said.
CBP is working to implement a combination of automation updates and communications to the trade community that are "as predictable and detailed as possible," Smith said. The agency has set up a special team tasked with carrying out changes related to the implementation of trade remedies such as tariffs and penalties, she also said. That unit works closely with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Commerce to coordinate information about the tariffs and enforcement, she added.
Customs is also communicating to policymakers in other areas of the federal government the impact that tariff changes are having on U.S. businesses' customs-compliance efforts—"an important role CBP can play," Smith said.
Ready or not ...
Any tariff revision requires communication, process, documentation, and IT programming updates, not only for CBP but also for importers, customs brokers, and providers of trade-compliance software. In some cases, though, the exact details aren't available until very late in the game.
In a separate conference panel discussion, Geoffrey Powell, chairman of the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA), cited the example of tariffs President Trump said he would impose on imports from Mexico unless that country stemmed the flow of U.S.-bound migrants. In late May, Trump ordered the tariffs to be imposed with just 10 days' notice, and then suddenly canceled them by tweet the Friday night before the Monday effective date. "We found out one [business] day prior to the effective date that they were canceled. It's hard to get everything ready in those circumstances," Powell said.
One of the most effective strategies for managing compliance in an era of fluctuating trade policies, according to one panelist, is to have a highly structured process for quickly identifying what needs to change and communicating that information to all affected parties. This is critical in a large, multinational organization, said Barb Secor, senior director, trade compliance for the technical equipment manufacturer Thermo Fisher Scientific.
Secor related how she and her team had to quickly jump into action when the U.S. issued a ban on doing business with one of Thermo Fisher's customers, the Chinese tech giant Huawei. "Our company has 18 different divisions. We had to think about who would immediately need to know about this worldwide," she said. The trade-compliance team had developed a formal process for monitoring changes and then cascading information and related company policies to the relevant functions in all of Thermo Fisher's divisions. Local managers then follow a specified procedure for alerting affected organizations further down the ladder. Everyone is also advised where to go for more information or assistance, Secor said. This methodology has also proven effective for dealing with the changes in tariffs on Chinese goods, she added.
In many cases, international traders and software vendors must wait for CBP to issue instructions and reprogram its systems before they can make their own updates. That creates challenges for trade-compliance software vendors, said Celeste Catano, global product manager for BluJay Solutions and a licensed customs broker. CBP is sometimes unable to have its programming in place early enough for software vendors to fully test and deploy the update in advance of the effective date, she noted.
CBP's Smith acknowledged that it's difficult for all of the players to program, test, and implement changes on short notice; she advised any party that is not ready by the time tariffs or other trade-related policies go into effect to discuss their situation with CBP. "We will work with you if we know you are trying to comply and will try to help you find a solution," she said.
When asked how CBP has been affected by frequent changes in leadership at the agency as well as its parent Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS), Smith said that it's a challenge to navigate the interplay of government and politics, especially in the "very interesting times" the agency is working in now. She noted that former CBP Acting Commissioner Kevin McAleenan's move to Acting DHS Secretary—a position he later resigned—had caused some disruption internally (current Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan is the second to take that position since McAleenan went to DHS in April 2019), but that everyone recognizes the need to "evolve and change to deal with change." CBP's new leadership, she added, recognizes the agency's internal expertise and trusts the staff and career officers to "keep on going ... and get the job done."
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.
Grocers and retailers are struggling to get their systems back online just before the winter holiday peak, following a software hack that hit the supply chain software provider Blue Yonder this week.
The ransomware attack is snarling inventory distribution patterns because of its impact on systems such as the employee scheduling system for coffee stalwart Starbucks, according to a published report. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Blue Yonder provides a wide range of supply chain software, including warehouse management system (WMS), transportation management system (TMS), order management and commerce, network and control tower, returns management, and others.
Blue Yonder today acknowledged the disruptions, saying they were the result of a ransomware incident affecting its managed services hosted environment. The company has established a dedicated cybersecurity incident update webpage to communicate its recovery progress, but it had not been updated for nearly two days as of Tuesday afternoon. “Since learning of the incident, the Blue Yonder team has been working diligently together with external cybersecurity firms to make progress in their recovery process. We have implemented several defensive and forensic protocols,” a Blue Yonder spokesperson said in an email.
The timing of the attack suggests that hackers may have targeted Blue Yonder in a calculated attack based on the upcoming Thanksgiving break, since many U.S. organizations downsize their security staffing on holidays and weekends, according to a statement from Dan Lattimer, VP of Semperis, a New Jersey-based computer and network security firm.
“While details on the specifics of the Blue Yonder attack are scant, it is yet another reminder how damaging supply chain disruptions become when suppliers are taken offline. Kudos to Blue Yonder for dealing with this cyberattack head on but we still don’t know how far reaching the business disruptions will be in the UK, U.S. and other countries,” Lattimer said. “Now is time for organizations to fight back against threat actors. Deciding whether or not to pay a ransom is a personal decision that each company has to make, but paying emboldens threat actors and throws more fuel onto an already burning inferno. Simply, it doesn’t pay-to-pay,” he said.
The incident closely followed an unrelated cybersecurity issue at the grocery giant Ahold Delhaize, which has been recovering from impacts to the Stop & Shop chain that it across the U.S. Northeast region. In a statement apologizing to customers for the inconvenience of the cybersecurity issue, Netherlands-based Ahold Delhaize said its top priority is the security of its customers, associates and partners, and that the company’s internal IT security staff was working with external cybersecurity experts and law enforcement to speed recovery. “Our teams are taking steps to assess and mitigate the issue. This includes taking some systems offline to help protect them. This issue and subsequent mitigating actions have affected certain Ahold Delhaize USA brands and services including a number of pharmacies and certain e-commerce operations,” the company said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on November 27 to indicate that the cybersecurity issue at Ahold Delhaize was unrelated to the Blue Yonder hack.
The new funding brings Amazon's total investment in Anthropic to $8 billion, while maintaining the e-commerce giant’s position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic. The partnership was launched in 2023, when Amazon invested its first $4 billion round in the firm.
Anthropic’s “Claude” family of AI assistant models is available on AWS’s Amazon Bedrock, which is a cloud-based managed service that lets companies build specialized generative AI applications by choosing from an array of foundation models (FMs) developed by AI providers like AI21 Labs, Anthropic, Cohere, Meta, Mistral AI, Stability AI, and Amazon itself.
According to Amazon, tens of thousands of customers, from startups to enterprises and government institutions, are currently running their generative AI workloads using Anthropic’s models in the AWS cloud. Those GenAI tools are powering tasks such as customer service chatbots, coding assistants, translation applications, drug discovery, engineering design, and complex business processes.
"The response from AWS customers who are developing generative AI applications powered by Anthropic in Amazon Bedrock has been remarkable," Matt Garman, AWS CEO, said in a release. "By continuing to deploy Anthropic models in Amazon Bedrock and collaborating with Anthropic on the development of our custom Trainium chips, we’ll keep pushing the boundaries of what customers can achieve with generative AI technologies. We’ve been impressed by Anthropic’s pace of innovation and commitment to responsible development of generative AI, and look forward to deepening our collaboration."