To improve supply chain sustainability, strike while the iron is broken
Research shows that large-scale supply chain disruptions often don’t derail sustainability efforts. Instead, many companies take the opportunity to better incorporate sustainability into their overall network design.
David Correll, former lead author of the State of Supply Chain Sustainability report, was a research scientist at MIT’s Center for Transportation & Logistics from many years. He now works for the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Companies can find it challenging to meet the increasing demand to make their supply chains sustainable—except when external events force their hands.
Our research shows that when large-scale disruptions compel companies to rethink their operations, improving sustainability is often part of the redesigned supply chains that emerge from such crises. Counterintuitively, supply chain sustainability (SCS) efforts appear to thrive in a crisis.
While companies should not limit their SCS efforts to crises, an awareness of these opportunities can help them identify opportune moments to advance their green agendas. This is especially the case in today’s volatile business environment, where adjustments to operational footprints in response to disruptive market forces are becoming more frequent.
The pressure to make supply chains more sustainable has risen steadily over the four years we have done this research. We measure ten sources of pressure, including investors, government entities, corporate buyers, company executives, and consumers, and the pressure from all of them has increased over the four years.
Investors represent the fastest-growing source, with a 25% increase in average respondent score throughout observation. Next come corporate buyers, with a 15% increase, followed by governments and governing bodies (11%).
Overall, the research indicates that commercial interests—be it access to capital gated by sustainability-minded investors or sales opportunities gated by sustainability-minded procurement teams—are pushing companies to improve their SCS performance year after year.
Obstacles to SCS
However, meeting stakeholder expectations of significant reductions in supply chain carbon footprints is still a stretch for many companies.
Reducing Scope 3 emissions—associated with assets not owned by the company and therefore largely out of their control—is proving particularly tricky. These problems are reflected in our latest research. Almost half of the “2023 State of Supply Chain Sustainability” report respondents indicated their organizations will not begin measuring or reducing Scope 3 emissions for five years or more. Scope 3 reporting and collecting reliable data across company boundaries appear to be especially challenging.
Another indicator of the bumpy road to SCS is the number of companies rethinking or scaling back their net-zero emissions pledges. Again, these issues are reflected in our research. Across all global respondents in the 2023 report, only 35% confirmed that their companies have net-zero goals. Moreover, many within this minority group appear unprepared for the net-zero deadlines they set for themselves.
Don’t waste a crisis
Four years of researching SCS efforts have allowed us to study the impact of various large-scale global crises on firms’ commitment to this work. We have found that the effect varies with the type of disruption experienced.
For the most part, crises that provoke acute supply chain network disruptions necessitating supply lines to be redrawn tend to result in an increased commitment to sustainability in supply chains. However, economic crises that require companies to regroup tend to dampen their SCS commitments.
For example, in the 2023 report, respondents were asked to rate their companies' continued commitment to SCS in light of three crises: the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–21, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (asked in 2023), and adverse economic conditions in 2023. In the first two cases, SCS efforts did not flag, but they did in the third situation. The survey results show that 79% of respondents confirmed that their SCS commitments increased in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and 61% said they have increased due to the Ukraine invasion.
In contrast, 56% of respondents indicated that their commitments to SCS declined over concerns that an economic slowdown was imminent in 2023. The research shows that when an economic downturn is in the offing, firms tend to concentrate on developing leaner, more cost-effective supply chain networks, even when such efforts do not align with sustainability goals. Also, companies are more focused on short-term risk mitigation efforts—rather than longer-term sustainability targets—when dealing with economic headwinds.
However, when global disruptions upend operations, the reaction is different. Companies redesign their supply chain networks in response, and building sustainability into these revamps makes sense. In recent years, we’ve observed that the most opportune time to redesign a supply chain with sustainability in mind is, paradoxically, when the supply chain is broken.
An extension of redesign
In today’s uncertain world, there is no shortage of global-scale disruptions to supply chains, and these are unlikely to diminish in the face of future uncertainties such as climate change and geopolitical instability.
Framing SCS as part of a company’s ongoing supply chain network redesign efforts might be a way to secure resources for these programs.
Moreover, perhaps this rationale need not be restricted to global crises. A host of competitive challenges can require firms to review the structure of their end-to-end operations. A company might need to change the geographic profile of its supply base as political tensions rise, decentralize its supply chain to reduce risk, or reconfigure its last-mile operations in changing e-commerce markets.
Further research is needed into the relationship between sustainability efforts and managing and mitigating disruption risks. Meanwhile, current and potential disruptions can offer an opportunity to integrate sustainability into the design and management of supply chains.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.