American truck and bus fleets have made sporadic progress in migrating away from internal combustion engines, but the number of battery-electric powertrains in commercial vehicles still totals just 7% of transit buses, 0.4% of school buses, and 0.1% of commercial trucks.
That count comes from a report by the Engine Technology Forum (ETF), an industry group promoting the use of advanced internal combustion engines (ICEs) and fuels. ETF said its analysis of S&P Global Mobility TIPNet data of US Commercial Vehicles in Operation as of December 2023 found that 99.9% of the nation’s commercial vehicles—from small white box delivery trucks on up to the largest 18 wheelers—are powered by ICEs. Diesel makes up the largest share at 76%, followed by gasoline at 22% then natural gas and propane.
Despite that slow rate of change to electric vehicles (EVs), the ETF says that modern diesel engines burn fuel far more cleanly than their predecessors, and that the nation’s fleets are already contributing to cleaner air.
“As the timing and degree of transition to alternative vehicles and fuels remains in flux, the importance of continued investment in new technology ICE vehicles is vital to ensure continued progress on clean air and climate commitments,” ETF Executive Director Allen Schaeffer said in a release. “Replacing older vehicles with new advanced ICE technology delivers substantial benefits. It would take more than 60 of the current generation diesels to equal the emissions of a single heavy-duty diesel truck built in the 1990’s.”
According to ETF, 61% of all commercial diesel trucks on the road as of December, 2023, were model year 2010 and newer, marking a 4% increase from 2022. Those new vehicles are equipped with the latest emissions controls to help them deliver near-zero emissions, the group said.
“From 2010 through 2030, this generation of diesels will save approximately 1.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 130 billion gallons of fuel, yield a cumulative savings of 1 million tons of particulate matter and 18 million tons of nitrogen oxide emissions. These benefits will be even greater once new emission regulations are implemented for new vehicles starting in 2027,” ETF Executive Director Allen Schaeffer said in a release.
In addition, those benefits are compounded by the use of low-carbon fuels, the group said. In 2023, more than 2.8 billion gallons of renewable diesel and 1.9 billion gallons of biodiesel were consumed. And renewable diesel fuel production capacity could reach5.9 billion gallons per year by the end of 2025.
ETF concludes that advanced diesel trucks are expected to deliver the overwhelming majority of clean air and greenhouse gas reduction benefits in the near term, while zero emission vehicles are expected to play a greater role in the later years of phase 3 rule implementation 2027-2032.
“While battery electric and hydrogen options develop, along with their fueling networks, internal combustion engines are expected to dominate our goods movement and public transport sectors for decades to come. That’s why continued innovation, having the newest generation of these vehicles in place, and expanding our use of renewable fuels, will ensure continued progress as well as lower burden of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the future,” Schaeffer said.
