Editor's note: This column has been adapted from a keynote speech given by Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Chairman Kevin Smith at the Panama Logistics Summit 2016 on March 11, 2016.
Supply chains are global, and supply chain activities are all around us. And yet they are nearly invisible. Most of the world takes what we do for granted. The efficient movement of goods and the seamless, endless supply of food, water, and clothing are simply "expected." In some ways, supply chains are viewed in the same way as public utilities. When you flip the switch on the wall, you expect the lights to come on. When you turn on the tap, you expect water to come streaming out.
It is when things fail to happen as expected that utilities get attention, and so it is with supply chains. The most attention that any of us get from the C-suite is on those rare occasions when things don't go exactly right. In fact, if I learned only one thing in over 40 years in this industry, it is that we get people's attention most when things do not go as planned. But ours is an industry of risk, resilience, and recovery as much as it is one of planning and execution. We are operators, but we are also problem solvers.
And make no mistake—supply chains are also critical enablers of the world's economies. The ability to source raw materials, convert those materials into a desirable product, move them close to a specific market, and supply the end consumer at an acceptable price is the key to success in commercial markets. To be able to source, make, move, and sell products in the right quantities, at the right time, in the right place, and at the right price is magic in itself. Businesses love magic!
Contributions to top and bottom lines
This is never more apparent than in an economic downturn. In the years after 2008, now referred to as "the Great Recession," supply chains were often quietly recognized as the saviors of companies because of their ability to contribute to both the top and bottom lines of the balance sheet.
Supply chains are able to contribute to the top line primarily through carefully cultivated relationships with commercial partners. Suppliers and their customers are not merely connected by sales people and buyers. Some of the most complex and robust connections between companies exist in the supply chain arena where, day in and day out, logistics professionals orchestrate the never-ending flow of goods between partners. Not surprisingly, when times get tough, many buying decisions are made based on how easy it is to deal with a supplier. Good collaborators often become the default supplier of choice. That is how the supply chain can influence the top line.
On the bottom line, supply chain managers are among the best at saving money and reducing operating costs. It is what we do. And simply put, a dollar saved on the bottom line is worth a dollar in profit—one for one. In a business with a 33 percent margin you must sell $3 worth of goods to produce $1 in profit. In a strained economy, the ability to save money on the bottom line and preserve revenue on the top line is a marvelous feat.
A career in the supply chain industry is one of the most important and rewarding callings that exist. Supply chains are the secret operations that make the world a better place. Supply chains improve the standard of living around the world. More food reaches the table in an edible condition and less goes to waste because of supply chains. More potable water is available because of sustainable practices brought forward by supply chains. Electricity and fuels are more readily available because of the efforts put forth by supply chains. Supply chains quietly, but absolutely, affect people's lives.
I didn't know any of this when I started working over 40 years ago. It took me an incredibly long time to come to the realization that what we do is critical to the welfare of the planet's 7 billion-plus human beings and vital to the economies of the world's nearly 200 countries.
Logistics activities in the United States alone were valued at US$1.45 trillion and accounted for 8.3 percent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014, according to last year's CSCMP State of Logistics Report. And, the reality is that the balance of GDP is totally dependent on supply chains to move and deliver goods and services to consumers. So, is supply chain management important? Is what we do important? You bet it is!
How CSCMP supports career development
CSCMP is committed to providing supply chain professionals with assistance throughout their careers. We facilitate connections between our members and other supply chain professionals who can help solve problems or offer advice. CSCMP provides educational opportunities and programs to develop specific skills and expertise. We have an aggressive "lifecycle" objective at CSCMP to provide career advice and assistance to supply chain professionals when they are students, young professionals, mid-career practitioners, senior leaders, and, finally, like me, senior fellows. I like say that we want to involve and serve people in supply chain from "dorm living to assisted living."
CSCMP can achieve this goal. Through general educational offerings, customized programs for member companies, research, white papers, and mentoring opportunities, CSCMP has something for everyone at every stage of his or her career. If you are already a member of CSCMP, thank you. If you are not, I hope that you will become a member soon and begin taking advantage of the benefits that come with membership.
I'm looking forward to the great things ahead of us as an industry. I also believe that CSCMP can be a catalyst to help build supply chain careers and continue to make our world a better place in which to live.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.