If global supply chains are to gain the full benefit of this technology for managing payments and related data, all parties that play a role in global trade must be involved.
The last two years or so have been like a rollercoaster ride in the land of blockchain. Both existing and new players have been considering and evaluating the opportunities and the downsides of this important technological development.
The blockchain concept originally was developed as an efficient and secure way to manage and register transactions made with cryptocurrencies (for example, Bitcoin). Until now, it has mostly been of interest to individuals and financial institutions. But with its distributed-ledger technology (DLT) and smart contracts, blockchain has great potential to benefit all companies across the global supply chain—not just banks. This article will briefly explain what blockchain is, and then discuss why it is important for all parties involved in global trade transactions to adopt it.
DLT, smart contracts, and digital payments
Blockchain is a new computing infrastructure that emerged to power the Bitcoin digital currency application. In essence, blockchain provides the opportunity to have a connected, secure world with a distributed ledger that centralizes data for the involved parties and the ability to run automated checks and processes (called "smart code" or "smart contracts," depending on the legal implications of the code) that trigger all kinds of events (for example, payments).
The distributed-ledger technology component of blockchain allows each counterparty to have its own copy of the same ledger, similar to the way a Google doc allows multiple parties to view the same information at the same time. The database is built to be immutable, which means there is inherent security. Blockchain also allows for smart contracts to be coded and connected in such a way that the contract automatically executes an event if certain preconditions are met. An example would be a (near) real-time payment when goods are delivered.
Blockchain beyond banks
Banks that deal in trade finance—those that would, for example, give importers or exporters a loan to finance their global trading activities—are viewing blockchain as a technology that can provide these entities with a single view of the trade finance transactions in real time. But what about the other parties involved in trade finance? In addition to traditional banks, non-banking participants (for example, shipping companies, insurers of the goods, and credit-rating agencies, among others) and entities that fulfill the role of importers and/or exporters are all part of the trade finance chain. They already play a role in traditional payment methods, such as the commonly used letter of credit (L/C) described below.
We believe that for a trade finance blockchain to be successful, it requires more than just banks coming together. Instead, it requires a critical mass of organizations to adopt "straight-through processing" (STP), an automated workflow from the point when the loan is requested through to when the goods are received and the payment for the shipment is processed. Participation by non-banking participants is critical to its success. However, each will need an incentive to become part of a blockchain. Let's consider just a few of the potential participants and how they could benefit from involvement in blockchain.
Benefits for importers and exporters
Blockchain enables faster processing of transactions between and within parties. Consider the example of an international letter of credit. (Other trade finance products can benefit from blockchain technology, but this article will focus on the example of L/Cs.) In very simple terms, a letter of credit is a written guarantee by the buyer's or importer's bank (the "issuing bank") to the seller's or exporter's bank (the "advising bank") to pay an agreed amount for the goods when specified conditions, including time limits and the presentation of documents, have been met.
When the importer applies to its bank for a letter of credit, all kinds of checks (for example risk, compliance, and credit) are required before the L/C can be initiated. Once it has been initiated, the importer must then wait for the exporter's bank and, subsequently, the exporter to be informed. When the goods have been shipped, it could take up to five days for both the advising and issuing banks to complete their parts of the transaction; only then can the importer retrieve the documents required for picking up the shipment.
With blockchain, however, smart contracts perform the automated execution of the L/C application steps and checks, issuance and advising processes, document checking, execution of payments, and the registration of all these transactions on the blockchain. All of this can occur outside of business hours. The time required from initiation to payment can therefore be dramatically reduced. For example, because blockchain automates the document checking steps (paperless trade is a prerequisite), the time required from sending the documents to the exporter's bank until document retrieval by the importer—including all settlements and payments, if they are not deferred—can be reduced from as many as 10 days to only one hour.
This, of course, assumes no discrepancies that could still occur, depending on the setup of the blockchain. If there are discrepancies, they will be detected right after the documents are created—much sooner than in traditional processes—and all applicable participants will immediately be aware of them. In addition to the reduced transaction time, other benefits for importers and exporters include reduced bank fees (due to less manual activity on the part of the banks), reduced time for loan approval, and reduced risk of fraud.
Why others should join the blockchain
Blockchain initiatives hold great promise for non-banking participants and other organizations involved in international trade. Let us highlight some of those benefits, what the impact on their existing activities would be, and the possible role they could play in the future.
We'll start with the insurers of transported goods. Data is key for them; they use it, for example, to determine the risk involved in a transaction and the associated pricing of insurance premiums. As a consequence of the blockchain's distributed ledger, all participants involved have insight into all validated trade finance data. This would make a wealth of information available to insurers, allowing them to conduct a deeper analysis and make better decisions around the type of insurance product to be offered and at what premium. In addition, the information would be available in near real time—even while the transaction is still ongoing.
So with blockchain technology, insurers could obtain information much faster and the data would be more accurate, thus helping them to enhance their offerings to clients and reduce their own risk. Furthermore, blockchain technology enables faster processing between and within parties (for example, document checking), which reduces the duration of an insurance policy.
Some of the benefits for insurers are also applicable to credit-rating agencies. For example, if blockchain makes data about importers and exporters more accurate as well as more widely available in near real time, then credit-rating agencies will be able to create more accurate models, thereby enhancing their ability to operate in the trade finance chain. However, because data is stored on the blockchain in a distributed ledger, the method of retrieving data and making it available to clients without conversion would no longer be a unique selling point for the credit-rating agencies. Instead, they will have to focus on their ability not just to retrieve data but also to enrich or convert it to useful information for their clients. In other words, they'll need to rethink their commercial models and consider where they can add value with the new data that becomes available through blockchain.
Currently, credit-rating agencies measure the creditworthiness of individuals and corporations based on historical records related to transactions, financial behavior, and other factors. With blockchain, they could combine proprietary data on the financial history of the individual or entity with the aggregated import/export data now made available on the blockchain. This would create the opportunity to draw insights related to the type and concentration of deals, which customers are seeking what types of deals, what buyers are looking for from their suppliers, and related analytics. Right now this data is is not always or not completely available; with blockchain, it would be available to all intermediaries (on a private, permissioned blockchain if the parties prefer). In short, combining private credit-rating data with the blockchain data could create a powerful revenue stream for credit-rating agencies. This could also take some of the pressure off of shipping and logistics companies to provide this data.
Get ready for the future
In this article we've highlighted how importers and exporters, insurers, and credit-rating agencies could benefit from blockchain technology. They are not the only ones, of course. Blockchain would allow any participant in the value chain—not just those mentioned above, but also shipping companies and related logistics service providers, among others—to share a single view of the financing around a shipment.
In fact, many parties that are interested in exploring the benefits of blockchain have moved in the past year from the "thinking and learning about it" phase to the "experimenting with it" phase. All kinds of questions have come up, such as (to name just a few examples): Who should be involved? What will their role be? How are we going to make money? Not all questions have been answered yet; a lot depends on the role existing parties want to play in the future trade finance chain of activities as well as on the incentives they have to participate in blockchain.
There are challenges to be dealt with, too, such as the need to implement paperless trade, issues of data privacy, and how to get all members of a supply chain to participate. Most of the trade finance-related blockchain pilots today are being run by banks, with limited outside participants. The problem with that approach is that banks will only get their own networks to join, limiting the value when other participants are needed for the redesign and adoption of an existing process and product.
All in all, though, huge opportunities and benefits can be achieved if all parties get involved. So for banks, non-banking participants, and other companies that are considering blockchain, the benefits are clear. Luckily it's not too late to start thinking about their future and how they can join the blockchain revolution.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.