As we define future supply chain technology, I think we need to take "a hard left." Up to now, we have been
moving at a steady pace down a road that is well-known and safe. But this road is no longer sufficient to meet today's
supply chain challenges. We need to change our direction. Here I clarify the path less traveled but more promising for
supply chain leaders.
What do I mean? Let me explain. Supply chains currently use closed and proprietary technologies. Processes are based on
relational databases with rows and columns. I believe we need to move to open source technology. In other words, get used to
hearing the terms "blockchain" and "hyperledger." These are two new concepts that are here to stay.
What is the reason for this move to open, distributed technology? Currently, there are "dark holes" in the supply chain that
I believe will not be closed with the current approaches. These dark holes are typically handshakes, or interface points,
between applications where data does not flow, stopping visibility across the network. A dark hole could be the unloading of a
container from a ship, the receipt of a shipment, a transfer of ownership, a return, or a change in status. Dark holes usually
happen with the transference of ownership or change in status between two parties.
Let's examine the problem. Currently the product road maps for conventional technology providers are not focused on closing
these dark holes. Instead, the focus is on refining today's enterprise applications. It is unrealistic to think that vendors
like Infor, Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP will ever work together to erase the dark holes of information in the supply chain.
Likewise, it is very clear that while enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems will continue to be the backbone or system
of record for transactions within the enterprise, they are unable to form the backbone or system of record for a global value
network that consists of complex, nonlinear interactions between supply chain partners.
This transition from closed and proprietary solutions to open source capabilities will not happen quickly. I see adoption
occurring over the next five years. But if it works, I think that blockchain—which is defined as a distributed database
that acts as a shared, immutable ledger for recording the history of transactions—will be embedded in all of today's
current technologies.
While many may know blockchain as the engine powering the cryptocurrency and payment system Bitcoin, the possible use cases
for the technology in the value network are far more pervasive and powerful. Particularly promising is the
Hyperledger project, an open source blockchain platform started in December 2015 by the Linux Foundation to enable
blockchain-based distributed ledgers.
The Hyperledger project aims to bring together a number of independent efforts to develop open protocols and standards by
providing a modular framework that supports different components for different uses. This would include a variety of
blockchain technology variants with their own consensus and storage models and services for identity, access control,
and contracts.
What are the possibilities? Before I continue, let me make a confession: I am not a technologist. I cannot write code, and
when I worked for a software company, I quickly discovered that writing software requirements was not the best use of my
skill sets. Instead I like to paint big pictures and help others to fill in the gaps. But here are some use cases that
I developed through talking to technology experts and that we at Supply Chain Insights are considering testing as part
of our new Network of Networks Group.
Community registry. Today network registration involves onboarding to every network as an individual or as a company.
It lacks a system of reference for division/company or company/industry. What if we could have a community registry where we
have a single sign-on that could be accessed by all value networks? This schema would be carried in blockchain messaging,
enabling users to write information once and provide safe/secure communication across the network.
Replacement of EDI. Today EDI or electronic data interchange is the workhorse of the supply chain. Messages are transmitted and opened safely and securely. However, it operates in a batch manner, and there is latency as the message is opened. In addition, the passage and receipt of EDI requires sophisticated IT groups. As a result, it is more costly. Could blockchain replace EDI?
This is a stretch objective, but I think it's possible.
Lineage/track and trace. Tracking and tracing goods across multiple parties is cumbersome and lacks reliability.
Blockchain offers the ability to embed the origin and transfer points, destinations, and lot codes in the chain. This
could help companies better track and trace food, manage gray market goods (genuine branded goods sold by
unauthorized dealers) to eliminate counterfeit items, ensure compliance, and streamline recalls.
Safe and secure supply chains. As goods pass through the supply chain, multiple parties handle them. Blockchain
technologies enable companies to create a chain of custody. In the process, the handling requirements for each product could
be communicated on receipt.
Tracking social responsibility goals. Tracking a product's carbon footprint and point of origin for compliance with
internal or external social responsibility requirements is difficult. One thing is clear: Audits do not work. As we tackle
issues like fair labor, clean water, Congo metals/conflict minerals, and carbon consumption, blockchain can track the chain
of custody and help us to better understand and measure energy consumption, carbon emissions, and other social responsibility
goals.
Supply chain finance. The origin of blockchain is a desire to ensure safe and secure payment. Could we disintermediate
banks as we know them? Each time a supply chain transaction passes through a bank, there are charges. Could we drive a massive
restructuring of world banking to reduce bank charges for credit cards, wire transfers, and electronic fund transfer (EFT)/
automatic clearing house (ACH) payments?
Document sharing. In supply chain, we spend hours upon hours negotiating terms and conditions of contracts. After
completion, the filed contracts are never used again. We do not connect the contracts to supply chain execution. But what if
contracts could accompany a purchase order, and if conditions change, then rules would change the cost based on delivery
conditions? Or they would change delivery conditions, based on availability (dynamic dock scheduling) and weather? I think
this is all possible. I think blockchain along with
cognitive computing will allow value networks to connect supply chain documents to transactions in real time.
Today we do not know what is possible. However, the more I study this technology at the beginning of its hype cycle, the
more promising I think it is. I am excited to be a part of the group that is going to do some serious testing. Supply Chain
Insights has gathered together a cross-industry networking group of collaborative technology users and developers to study
what we are calling the
"Network of Networks." The Network of Networks will address the adoption of distributed and open
technology by the ecosystem of technology providers and business users to drive interoperability in value networks.
In the Networks of Network testing that we have planned, we will be using the IBM version of blockchain
to test the use of Hyperledger to improve network onboarding. Our goal is to test the open source version from IBM in
the digital sandbox/lab environment at Schneider Electric. We issued a call for participants in a webinar on January 11,
2017 and came together as a group at the next Network of Networks Session on April 13-14 at the Grande Lakes
Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Orlando, Florida. The results will be shared publicly at the upcoming
Supply Chain Insights Global Summit on September 5-8, 2017 at the Ritz Carlton, Reynolds in Oconee, Georgia.
We hope to see you there!
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.