Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a freelance writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, material handling, and international trade. She previously was Editor at CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. and Senior Editor of SCQ's sister publication, DC VELOCITY. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
Earlier this year, World Customs Organization (WCO) Secretary General Kunio Mikuriya spoke of e-commerce bringing a "tsunami of small packages to the doorsteps of customs administrations and other regulatory agencies around the world." Mikuriya was not exaggerating.
Millions of international packages are shipped to consumers daily, and that volume is rising fast. E-Commerce Logistics in the United States, a 2018 report by the market research firm Armstrong & Associates, says cross-border e-commerce today accounts for 15 to 20 percent of the world's online traffic. Growing at about twice the rate of domestic e-commerce, it's expected to represent 22 percent of global online sales by 2020, the report says. The surge is straining customs operations and creating challenges for authorities around the globe.
WHO GOES THERE?
Historically, customs agencies have dealt with large-scale industrial transactions between established companies that are known to government authorities. But the Internet makes it easy for even the smallest businesses and entrepreneurs to sell their wares overseas. As a result, business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions often involve "one-off" orders shipped by companies or individuals that customs authorities may not know and that are bound for individuals who are also unfamiliar. This has made it harder for authorities to identify criminals and fraudulent activity, including duty evasion, smuggling, and improperly described goods.
Furthermore, e-commerce has created a new category of casual buyers and sellers with limited knowledge of export/import processes and regulations. Consequently, documentation, product descriptions, and declared values for B2C shipments often are incomplete or inaccurate.
In such circumstances, imports can be flagged for review and held up for hours, or even days. But e-commerce merchants who compete on timely deliveries are anxious to keep merchandise moving. That puts pressure on customs authorities to clear shipments quickly, sometimes without sufficient staffing to handle the huge growth in volume, said Amy Magnus, president of the National Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA) and director of customs affairs and compliance for customs broker A.N. Deringer, at the Coalition of New England Companies for Trade's (CONECT) Northeast Trade & Transportation Conference in April.
THE DE MINIMIS DILEMMA
For U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), perhaps the biggest issue is that many e-commerce orders fall below the de minimis value threshold. That means the shipment's value is so low that it's exempt from duties and only minimal information must be provided to CBP when the goods enter the United States.
Under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 (TFTEA), Congress raised the U.S. de minimis for merchandise to $800 from $200, with the aim of reducing paperwork and speeding up customs clearance for small shipments. That change has led to a series of problems, creating what the NCBFAA has called the "de minimis dilemma."
The new threshold made millions of additional shipments eligible for the documentation and duty exemptions, and therefore a potential source of risk. The identity of the receiver is required, but that of the buyer, which may differ from the receiver, is not. This makes it harder for CBP to screen importers for wrongdoing. Nor is the Harmonized Tariff System (HTS) commodity-identification code required; a written description is deemed sufficient.
The incomplete information constrains customs authorities' ability to collect trade data for economic analysis and to identify imports that violate intellectual property law. Magnus pointed out that other government agencies relying on import data supplied by CBP might not receive sufficient information to carry out their own assessments. However, CBP and other federal agencies can still require formal entries and inspections for certain imports, such as those that are subject to quotas.
The updated regulation regarding de minimis, popularly referred to as "Section 321," says that the exemption from duties, taxes, and most customs-clearance formalities can be claimed for articles "imported by one person on one day" with a "fair retail value in the country of shipment" of $800 or less. It also says that merchandise covered by a single order or contract that is shipped in separate lots to avoid duties does not qualify for de minimis. This has been difficult to enforce, partly due to ambiguity surrounding the definition of "one person" and to shippers' ability to manipulate shipments to meet the "one order" criterion.
Some third-party logistics service providers (3PLs) have set up fulfillment centers in Mexico and Canada that are "filled with goods, waiting for e-commerce orders" specifically to take advantage of the $800 threshold, Magnus said. One example is XB Fulfillment, which says it offers "a legal way to completely eliminate duties" under Section 321.
In one example from the company's brochure, merchandise imported in container or pallet loads via air or ocean to Los Angeles moves immediately in-bond to XB's warehouse in Tijuana, Mexico, and thus is not subject to U.S. import duties. When an e-commerce order is received from a client, XB says, it ships the order from Tijuana to meet the promised delivery times to the end consumer in the U.S. According to the brochure, the shipment is considered duty-free as long as each order is sent to an individual buyer/consignee, each consignee receives no more than one shipment per day, each consignee receives a separate commercial invoice, and the value of each order does not exceed $800.
While such practices—akin to taking advantage of a tax loophole—appear to comply with the letter of the law, they may also create problems. For instance, some shipments may violate the rule that merchandise under a single order or contract that is shipped in separate lots to avoid duties does not qualify for de minimis.
These low-value orders often are consolidated and shipped in truckloads to the United States. Currently, according to Magnus, if a truck arrives in the U.S. from Canada or Mexico and no shipment or consignment on that truck is valued at over $800, and the goods are not otherwise subject to other U.S. federal agencies' requirements, then no advance notice is required and the driver can simply present a paper manifest to CBP at the border. (However, if even one shipment on the truck is valued at over $800, then the carrier must transmit the manifest electronically to CBP at least one hour in advance of arrival.) Additionally, if, according to the manifest, every shipment on the truck meets the de minimis criteria, then no formal entry is required and no HTS numbers need appear on that document. The carrier is responsible for preparing the manifest based in part on information received from the foreign shipper(s). That information may well be incomplete, a common problem with e-commerce shipments. For example, a description of "plastic bags" could represent anything from food packaging to parts of medical devices; without an HTS number, it's impossible to know.
This situation places customs officers in a difficult position when it comes to regulatory compliance, security, and risk assessment, said an unidentified CBP officer who was in the audience at the CONECT conference. An officer must figure out what to do with no advance notice, very little information, and a thick pile of paper to work from, he said. "The officer is forced to make a decision: Do we delay the truck, and thousands of small packages, to inspect them? That would take a whole day."
Without access to detailed information or advance notice of a shipment's arrival, customs authorities are hampered in their efforts to target suspicious shipments, Magnus agreed, adding, "Low value does not mean low risk."
SEARCHING FOR REMEDIES
With millions of low-value packages shipping daily, the potential lost revenue and lack of data could have significant consequences. Trade data in countries with large e-commerce volumes has already become distorted due to the large number of de minimis shipments, according to WCO officials.
Authorities are well aware of the problems, and a variety of potential remedies are currently under discussion. For example:
In February, attendees at the WCO's first-ever Global Cross-Border E-Commerce Conference endorsed a proposed e-commerce framework that would standardize and harmonize customs regulations and legislative approaches, establish mechanisms for the exchange of advance electronic data, and enhance security, among other goals. The WCO working group that proposed the framework is also advocating for simplified processing for e-commerce shipments but with more data points and detail than most countries currently require.
NCBFAA, the customs brokers and forwarders group, has urged CBP to establish an electronic entry solution for de minimis shipments within the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE), an information system designed for enforcement of customs regulations and risk-based targeting of inbound shipments.
CBP in March released an e-commerce strategy it developed with input from the Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee (COAC). That plan would enhance legal and regulatory authorities to better address threats, help affected CBP operations respond to the rapid growth of e-commerce, and drive private-sector compliance through enforcement and incentives. However, COAC, which includes a cross-section of trade stakeholders, did not agree with CBP on several proposals, such as filing Section 321 entries in ACE and the amount of detail to be required for product descriptions.
Governments inevitably will try to prevent e-commerce shippers from avoiding duties and taxes, wrote Chris Jones, an executive vice president at logistics software developer Descartes Systems Group, in a blog post earlier this year. Jones predicts that sellers will be required to provide information to help governments assess and collect duties, and that carriers and logistics service providers could be required to help enforce laws and collect duties on customs agencies' behalf.
It's hard to say which of these and other proposed responses to e-commerce problems will actually be implemented. But given the spectacular growth of cross-border e-commerce, and with national security and revenue at stake, international traders should be prepared for customs authorities around the world to take aggressive action sooner rather than later.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.