Transportation and logistics providers took a wait-and-see approach to handling the potential impacts of the partial government shutdown that began at midnight Dec. 21 and requires "non-essential" employees of many federal agencies to stay at home while they are barred from working.
With President Trump and Congress mired in a stalemate over the terms of approving a budget to keep the government operating, the shutdown had no obvious end in sight as the nation headed into the New Year's Eve holiday break with thousands of workers idled.
One government body that was closed today was the Federal Maritime Commission, which in a statement on Wednesday said that all its employees had been placed on furlough and were prohibited by law from performing any duties during the shutdown. The exception to that requirement was the commission's acting chairman, Michael A. Khouri, and its commissioner, Rebecca Dye, who are exempted because they are Presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed officials.
According to its website, the commission is an independent regulatory and enforcement agency responsible for ensuring a reliable international ocean transportation supply system that supports the U.S. economy and protects the public from unfair and deceptive practices. Those duties are now on hold: "No transactions or filings will be accepted until appropriations legislation is enacted and the federal government reopens," the commission said in a release. "The Commission will resume normal operations upon enactment of appropriations legislation."
Among other impacts, the closure means that the commission:
will not respond to email or phone inquiries, or update its website
will not accept online filings for applications such as: Ocean Transportation Intermediary (OTI) applications or license updates; Foreign Unlicensed Non-Vessel Operating Common Carrier (NVOCC) registrations or renewals; Tariff Registration Forms; or eAgreements Filing System (Ocean carrier or marine terminal operator agreements or amendments).
will not support access to its online databases, including: SERVCON, the VOCC and NVOCC Tariff List, List of FMC Licensed and Bonded OTIs, and the Agreement Notices & Library.
Likewise, the U.S. Department of Commerce is now closed, according to its website. "Due to the lapse in Congressional Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce is closed. Commerce Department websites will not be updated until further notice," the site says. "The Department is prepared for a lapse in funding that would necessitate a significant reduction in operations and is currently implementing its plan."
However, that closure comes with some exceptions for operations that are considered essential safety or emergency programs, said Aaron Ellis, a spokesman for the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA). One example is the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) unit that manages the Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS), Ellis said.
Also unaffected would be ongoing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects at cargo ports, although various other agencies could see changes, depending on the exact source of their funding within the federal budget, Ellis said.
In addition to the FMCSA, those agencies continuing to operate normally during the shutdown include the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), said Lloyd Brown, a spokesman for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), an industry group for state DOTs.
Thanks to that funding structure, most of the federal agencies that work with state DOTs will continue to operate through the shutdown, he said. For example, that means state DOTs working on federally approved projects should not see any changes to their FHWA reimbursement funding, he said. "For now, we do not see much direct impact from the partial shutdown," Brown said in an email. "That does not mean we are not watching the situation closely and if things change, we'll definitely advocate on behalf of our state DOT members."
UPS, NRF see little disruption for consumers
As logistics and transportation providers navigate the uncertainty and disruption caused by these various impacts of the shutdown, many are taking a wait-and-see approach.
"We're operating business as usual," UPS Inc. spokesman Matt O'Connor said in an email today. The hurdle comes just days after Atlanta-based UPS stretched its network to accommodate the business shipping days of the entire year, including the peak surge the transportation and logistics company calls "National Returns Day."
While that approach may support normal operations for some providers, the National Retail Federation (NRF) industry group voiced concern about the potential impact of the shutdown on consumer confidence and buying patterns.
"It's disappointing that a year marked by a consumer-driven economic recovery is ending in gridlock. Congress and the administration should move quickly to resolve this stalemate so that every American family can enjoy the holidays without worrying about dysfunction in Washington," NRF Senior Vice President for Government Relations David French said in an emailed statement.
The government's stalemate comes amid economic and policy uncertainty heading into 2019. On one front, the NRF and other groups are weighing the potential impact of looming tariffs on Chinese imports and the possible replacement of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the proposed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal. And on another front, several economic trend watchers are warning of signs of a slowdown in trade and growth statistics in 2019 and 2020.
NRF figures show that the economy is holding strong against these threats so far, shown as November retail sales increased 5 percent over 2017, and the country is on track to meet the group's holiday forecast predicting that holiday sales will increase between 4.3 and 4.8 percent this year.
"We do not believe this partial government shutdown will dampen consumer confidence heading into the New Year, but it certainly doesn't help either," French said.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.