Instead of simply buying parts and products from suppliers, manufacturers should reserve those suppliers' capacity. By doing so they'll gain more flexibility, better cost control, and higher product quality.
Bob Parker is a group vice president at
the IDC research and analysis firm
Industry Insights. There he’s responsible
for the research direction of the
Manufacturing Insights and Global
Retail Insights units. Parker, a
CSCMP member, previously was a
vice president covering emerging
technology, enterprise software, and
information technology strategies at
AMR Research.
Although the classic model for manufacturing firms relied on vertical integration, modern industrial organizations are built on their supply chains. Take Ford Motor Company, for example. Ford used to bring raw rubber and iron ore in one end of its River Rouge, Michigan, USA, manufacturing plant and push completed vehicles out the other end. Today, however, Ford procures more than 60 percent of the value of an automobile from suppliers.
Ford is hardly alone in doing so; most global manufacturers obtain a significant percentage of their products' components from external suppliers. There are many reasons for this change. Many companies have shed production assets in favor of supplier relationships in order to support geography-based revenue growth, control profit margins, and maximize their return on assets. Moreover, manufacturers' focus on core competencies, enabled by information technology and plenty of capital, led them to shift their emphasis from internal production operations to external supply chain coordination.
Article Figures
[Figure 1] Manufacturing financial performance (2002-2007)Enlarge this image
This shift in focus is one reason why manufacturing firms enjoyed a period of robust growth after the "tech bubble" burst in 2001. Figure 1 summarizes information from IDC Manufacturing Insights' global performance index, which is based on data for 850 of the largest global manufacturers. The chart shows that, in the five-year period that includes 2003 through 2007, revenue improved cumulatively by more than 40 percent, and profit margins doubled from just above 2 percent in 2002 to 4.5 percent in 2007.
Now the good times are over. Last year started with a great deal of uncertainty that was largely fueled by the rising costs of resources such as petroleum, chemicals, and metals. The worldwide economic expansion had created inflationary raw material markets, and supply chain captains worried about their effect on growth and profitability. By the end of the year, raw material costs were off their peaks?—but for the wrong reasons. A global credit crunch had slammed the door on consumer spending in mature markets and had dried up business borrowing everywhere.
The 850 companies tracked by the IDC Manufacturing Insights index are, for the most part, well-positioned to weather the storm. Their strong financial performance between 2003 and 2007 allowed them to build up large cash reserves, and these war chests will help them survive. However, many manufacturers worry about key suppliers that have been unable to build a cash buffer and are very dependent on short-term borrowing facilities, which now are hard to come by, or at least are much more expensive than they were. Those supply chain captains know that they will have to become more involved in financing the commercial activity in their supply chains, and they are trying to find ways to mitigate their financial and supply risks. This need to change the way they interact with suppliers has created interest in a different approach to procurement?—capabilities-based sourcing (CBS).
What is capabilities-based sourcing?
Capabilities-based sourcing is not a concept that was born of the current economic troubles; it actually has been discussed for some time. But it has not been widely implemented because few companies have been able to justify the tremendous effort that would be required to change from traditional practices to CBS.
Traditional sourcing and procurement is based on a familiar path. An engineering parts list is translated to a bill of material. Since many of the items are not standard (that is, they can't simply be bought out of a vendor's catalog), the procurement organization sends out drawings to a group of potential vendors, who then bid on producing the specific stock-keeping unit (SKU). The lowest bid from a qualified vendor usually gets the production job.
With the CBS approach, the buying company reserves capacity for specific capabilities?—precision machining, welding, or injection molding, for example. It then issues new requirements to those vendors, consuming that capacity. The capacity reservation may be in the form of a cash payment, or it may be in the form of a binding guarantee that the supplier can use as collateral when it borrows money. The process may be extended such that the supply chain captain furnishes those vendors with raw materials (such as steel, plastic, or even energy), allowing it to utilize its buying power and better hedge price volatility. The CBS approach is attractive in this capital-constrained environment because suppliers that receive contract guarantees have some level of assured capacity consumption and therefore can better finance their operations.
Consider this example. Figure 2 shows a very simple bill of material (BOM) for three end products. All of the parts that comprise those products (assumed to be nonstandard) must be produced by suppliers. Each of the parts would be sent out for bid to qualified suppliers, and the contracts would be awarded to the lowest bidders. If the customer orders two of product 123, one of product 456, and three of product 789, then new purchase orders would be let to those vendors for seven of part A, two of part B, two of part C, four of part D, one of part E, nine of part F, and three of part G, using a simple BOM explosion. (A BOM explosion breaks down each assembly or subassembly into its component parts.)
Figure 3 examines the same set of parts but considers the number of hours needed for certain production capabilities. In this scenario, the capabilities of the vendors are understood and capacity has been purchased in advance. For the same order discussed in the previous paragraph, purchasing would release the following consumption of hours: 23 hours of precision machining (7 x 3 = 21 for Part A, plus 1 x 2 = 2 for Part E); 29 hours of robotic welding; and 29 hours of injection molding.
In this example, capacity that has been reserved is assigned to produce a specific part. The buyer gets greater flexibility in meeting customer demand, and the suppliers finance their working capital needs with the buyer's balance sheet.
The business benefits of CBS
The most prominent reason for supply chain captains to adopt capabilities-based sourcing is to mitigate supply risk. By reserving capacity in advance, buyers can provide suppliers the working capital they need without having to become their lender of record.
CBS offers manufacturers a number of other key benefits, including:
Flexibility. Because they no longer have a one-to-one relationship between supplier and purchased part (that is, they are not buying a single part from a single supplier), companies using CBS can adjust and calibrate their supply capabilities to demand. Using "lean" parlance, the traditional inventory kanban (buffer inventory) with suppliers becomes a capacity kanban. Hence the whole supply network, not just the factory, can be balanced to demand. In addition, CBS's ability to match supply capabilities with demand ensures a high order-fill rate and thus allows supply chain captains to raise the level of service they provide to their customers.
Cost control. Hourly rates for capacity consumption typically differ depending on the level of factory automation. The higher the level of automation, the more costly the labor, but those plants operate more efficiently. Conversely, less automated plants may take longer to produce parts but will carry lower hourly rates. Supply chain captains who recognize these differences can better understand their suppliers' cost structures and ultimately exert more control over the profitability of their product portfolios.
Raw materials. Supply chain captains can also take on the sourcing of key base materials like metals, plastics, and chemicals. By assuming control of sourcing, buying organizations can further mitigate the working capital needs of their suppliers and allow the buying organizations to leverage their buying power.
Quality. Not only does buying capacity in advance give supply chain captains more responsibility for monitoring production yields, it also gets them involved in quality improvement from the start. This is true, for example, in the semiconductor industry, where prebuying capacity at foundries is a common practice. While it requires additional investment on the part of the buying organization, such diligence should translate to higher overall product quality.
Through these benefits, capacity-based sourcing can enhance the overall effectiveness of the supply network, resulting in higher service levels, lower costs, and improved quality.
Effecting the transformation
CBS offers significant benefits, but companies that shift to this approach will have to overcome some noteworthy challenges. For one thing, there is always the risk that reserved capacity will go unused and that the need for costly, nonrecurring tooling?—a special mold for a specific part, for instance?—will further complicate the situation.
The biggest challenge for companies that are considering this sourcing approach remains the considerable effort required to transform an organization from individual part sourcing to CBS. Organizations are structured around commodity buying, processes are geared to event-based contract awards (requests for proposals and requests for quotations), and information technology is based on conventional material planning. To implement CBS, companies will have to completely re-examine their supply organizations, processes, and supporting information technology.
Let's look first at reorganization. Traditional procurement organizations are structured around commodity managers or teams. These purchasing professionals are responsible for negotiating contracts for items that share attributes such as raw material or function. Commodity managers have an understanding of the item's functional engineering (what it is intended to do) so that they can evaluate alternative sources for those items.
In a CBS approach, the key title is not commodity manager but "capability manager." The role is very similar to that of the commodity manager, except the most important piece of knowledge isn't the functional requirement of the part being purchased. Rather, it is a process-oriented understanding of how the part is produced. There will be some overlap between the two. Just as the commodity manager will have some understanding of the production process, the capability manager will also understand the part's function. Such organizational changes will be the easiest part of the transformation; changing the purchasing mindset from a primary focus on function to a focus on process could prove more difficult.
Along with a new way of thinking, the implementation of CBS will necessitate substantial changes to all aspects of the procurement function, including:
Planning. Strategic sourcing?—the aggregation of spending based on common attributes?—will transition to sourcing that is based on the aggregation of capabilities that are needed in the supply network. Thanks to the benefits of CBS discussed earlier, this change should lead to more effective network design, more accurate advanced planning, and more effective sales and operations coordination. The planning process will develop recommendations for what percentage of the estimated required capacity should be reserved and how far in advance this should be done. IDC Manufacturing Insights expects most companies will reserve 60 to 70 percent of their estimated required capacity in the longer term (six months to a year), adjust with additional buys in the middle term (one or two quarters), and spot-buy in the near term. This approach will help to mitigate the aforementioned risk of failing to consume reserved capacity.
Buying. The traditional process of sending drawings and requests for quotes to approved vendors will also change. Instead, complex capacity-reservation contracts will have to be signed and executed before a company receives a bid for production of a part. Instead of calculating pricing for specified quantities of those items, vendors will estimate the amount of capacity hours that will be consumed per unit. The current process is only loosely coupled with planning (the strategic sourcing function works with a list of approved vendors, from which a bid list is composed), but CBS will require tighter coordination between the required-capacity forecast and the actual consumption queue (what is currently in line for production). Purchase order releases will reflect hours, not dollars.
Execution. Material planners will move from managing on the basis of shipment dates within specified time windows to managing based on near real-time status of production at the supplier. Throughput, yield, and shipment information will be closely tied. Planners will work with the supplier's production personnel to determine lot quantities and sequences based on current need. Kanbans for capacity, not inventory, will be established.
For companies moving toward CBS, making the necessary process changes will be the most complex undertaking. They must develop process blueprints that reflect the state they desire to achieve, and they must devise a transformation plan. It is widely recommended that they engage consulting firms that are well-versed in process re-engineering to assist them in this critical transition.
Information technology considerations
Unfortunately, data models and process applications in the procurement area are built for the traditional approach rather than for CBS. However, this doesn't mean that companies will be required to create new, custom applications. Rather, they will have to build tighter connections between existing product lifecycle management (PLM) and supply chain management (SCM) applications.
In some industries, as much as 80 percent of the product cost is locked in the initial design stages, when critical decisions are made about key components and how they should be produced. This makes the design stage an ideal time to identify what capabilities will be needed to manufacture those components and to estimate the "should take" time (as opposed to "should cost" pricing). These estimates can then be vetted with suppliers where the supply chain captain has reserved capacity.
Because the vendors in essence are providing manufacturing services, not parts, companies using the CBS approach should apply procurement software that is adept at services purchasing to the actual orders. Resource planning software should consider vendors' work centers as if they were their own and run capacity planning (rather than material planning) against the requirements. Thus, instead of being vertically integrated, the supply chain captain becomes "virtually integrated."
The new reality
Although capacity-based sourcing has long been discussed in theory, the concept has always seemed too daunting to put into practice. The new realities presented by the current global recession, however, have generated renewed interest in CBS because of the compelling benefits it offers in the areas of flexibility, cost control, and risk mitigation.
If you believe this purchasing approach would benefit your company, start the transition with a single spend category (for example, metals processing, plastic parts, Application-Specific Integrated Circuits [ASICs], and so forth) to test the process. Be sure to take advantage of the sourcing capabilities offered by your product lifecycle management software vendors, and work with consulting firms that are versed in the purchasing process, risk analysis, and process re-engineering.
The impetus for the transformation from a traditional purchasing model to capacity-based sourcing may be the current economic malaise. But a CBS approach will continue to yield substantial long-term benefits long after the inevitable recovery begins.
Dockworkers at dozens of U.S. East and Gulf coast ports are returning to work tonight, ending a three-day strike that had paralyzed the flow of around 50% of all imports and exports in the United States during ocean peak season.
The two groups “have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the Master Contract will resume,” the joint statement said.
Talks had broken down over the union’s twin demands for both pay hikes and a halt to increased automation in freight handling. After the previous contract expired at midnight on September 30, workers made good on their pledge to strike, and all activity screeched to a halt on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week.
Business groups immediately sang the praises of the deal, while also sounding a note of caution that more work remains.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) cheered the short-term contract extension, even as it urged the groups to forge a longer-lasting pact. “The decision to end the current strike and allow the East and Gulf coast ports to reopen is good news for the nation’s economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a release. “It is critically important that the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance work diligently and in good faith to reach a fair, final agreement before the extension expires. The sooner they reach a deal, the better for all American families.”
Likewise, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) said it was relieved to see positive progress, but that a final deal wasn’t yet complete. “Without the specter of disruption looming, the U.S. economy can continue on its path for growth and retailers can focus on delivering for consumers. We encourage both parties to stay at the negotiating table until a final deal is reached that provides retailers and consumers full certainty that the East and Gulf Coast ports are reliable gateways for the flow of commerce.”
And the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) commended the parties for coming together while also cautioning them to avoid future disruptions by using this time to reach “a fair and lasting agreement,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in an email. “Manufacturers are encouraged that cooler heads have prevailed and the ports will reopen. By resuming work and keeping our ports operational, they have shown a commitment to listening to the concerns of manufacturers and other industries that rely on the efficient movement of goods through these critical gateways,” Timmons said. “This decision avoids the need for government intervention and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, and it is a victory for all parties involved—preserving jobs, safeguarding supply chains, and preventing further economic disruptions.”
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.
The number of container ships waiting outside U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports has swelled from just three vessels on Sunday to 54 on Thursday as a dockworker strike has swiftly halted bustling container traffic at some of the nation’s business facilities, according to analysis by Everstream Analytics.
As of Thursday morning, the two ports with the biggest traffic jams are Savannah (15 ships) and New York (14), followed by single-digit numbers at Mobile, Charleston, Houston, Philadelphia, Norfolk, Baltimore, and Miami, Everstream said.
The impact of that clogged flow of goods will depend on how long the strike lasts, analysts with Moody’s said. The firm’s Moody’s Analytics division estimates the strike will cause a daily hit to the U.S. economy of at least $500 million in the coming days. But that impact will jump to $2 billion per day if the strike persists for several weeks.
The immediate cost of the strike can be seen in rising surcharges and rerouting delays, which can be absorbed by most enterprise-scale companies but hit small and medium-sized businesses particularly hard, a report from Container xChange says.
“The timing of this strike is especially challenging as we are in our traditional peak season. While many pulled forward shipments earlier this year to mitigate risks, stockpiled inventories will only cushion businesses for so long. If the strike continues for an extended period, we could see significant strain on container availability and shipping schedules,” Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange, said in a release.
“For small and medium-sized container traders, this could result in skyrocketing logistics costs and delays, making it harder to secure containers. The longer the disruption lasts, the more difficult it will be for these businesses to keep pace with market demands,” Roeloffs said.
Jason Kra kicked off his presentation at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) EDGE Conference on Tuesday morning with a question: “How do we use data in assessing what countries we should be investing in for future supply chain decisions?” As president of Li & Fung where he oversees the supply chain solutions company’s wholesale and distribution business in the U.S., Kra understands that many companies are looking for ways to assess risk in their supply chains and diversify their operations beyond China. To properly assess risk, however, you need quality data and a decision model, he said.
In January 2024, in addition to his full-time job, Kra joined American University’s Kogod School of Business as an adjunct professor of the school’s master’s program where he decided to find some answers to his above question about data.
For his research, he created the following situation: “How can data be used to assess the attractiveness of scalable apparel-producing countries for planning based on stability and predictability, and what factors should be considered in the decision-making process to de-risk country diversification decisions?”
Since diversification and resilience have been hot topics in the supply chain space since the U.S.’s 2017 trade war with China, Kra sought to find a way to apply a scientific method to assess supply chain risk. He specifically wanted to answer the following questions:
1.Which methodology is most appropriate to investigate when selecting a country to produce apparel in based on weighted criteria?
2.What criteria should be used to evaluate a production country’s suitability for scalable manufacturing as a future investment?
3.What are the weights (relative importance) of each criterion?
4.How can this methodology be utilized to assess the suitability of production countries for scalable apparel manufacturing and to create a country ranking?
5.Will the criteria and methodology apply to other industries?
After creating a list of criteria and weight rankings based on importance, Kra reached out to 70 senior managers with 20+ years of experience and C-suite executives to get their feedback. What he found was a big difference in criteria/weight rankings between the C-suite and senior managers.
“That huge gap is a good area for future research,” said Kra. “If you don’t have alignment between your C-suite and your senior managers who are doing a lot of the execution, you’re never going to achieve the goals you set as a company.”
With the research results, Kra created a decision model for country selection that can be applied to any industry and customized based on a company’s unique needs. That model includes discussing the data findings, creating a list of diversification countries, and finally, looking at future trends to factor in (like exponential technology, speed, types of supply chains and geopolitics, and sustainability).
After showcasing his research data to the EDGE audience, Kra ended his presentation by sharing some key takeaways from his research:
China diversification strategies alone are not enough. The world will continue to be volatile and disruptive. Country and region diversification is the only protection.
Managers need to balance trade-offs between what is optimal and what is acceptable regarding supply chain decisions. Decision-makers need to find the best country at the lowest price, with the most dependability.
There is a disconnect or misalignment between C-suite executives and senior managers who execute the strategy. So further education and alignment is critical.
Data-driven decision-making for your company/industry: This can be done for any industry—the data is customizable, and there are many “free” sources you can access to put together regional and country data. Utilizing data helps eliminate path dependency (for example, relying on a lean or just-in-time inventory) and keeps executives and managers aligned.
“Look at the business you envision in the future,” said Kra, “and make that your model for today.”