An improving economy and a strong lineup of speakers and presentation topics drew more than 3,100 supply chain professionals from 41 countries to this year's Annual Global Conference in San Diego, California, USA. Participants enjoyed three days of educational seminars along with the new "Supply Chain of the Future" exhibition, which showcased cutting-edge supply chain technology, equipment, and services.
Not able to attend the conference this year or unable to get to all of the sessions you would have liked to attend? The following roundup of some of the sessions and events CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly's editors attended during the conference will help you fill in some of those gaps.
For additional information on this year's conference as well as the 2011 conference, which will take place from Oct. 2?5 in Philadelphia, visit the conference's website.
New board officers announced
In addition to being an educational event, CSCMP's Annual Global Conference also serves as the association's annual business meeting. As part of those proceedings, members elected the following officers to its board of directors:
Board of Directors Chair: Keith Turner, vice president of marketing and sales, Alcoa World Alumina
Immediate Past Chair: Robert B. Silverman, vice president of IT business systems, Tommy Hilfiger USA
Board Chair-Elect: Nancy W. Nix, executive director of the EMBA Program and professor of supply chain practice, Texas Christian University
Board Vice Chair: Rick J. Jackson, executive vice president, Limited Logistics Services
Secretary and Treasurer: Heather L. Sheehan, corporate director of global logistics, Danaher Corp.
A list of committee chairs who were appointed to CSCMP's Board of Directors is available here.
Long-time innovator honored with Distinguished Service Award
Chuck Taylor has never been afraid to tackle a difficult problem. In the 1980s, Taylor helped logistics and transportation professionals envision how the industry could operate after deregulation. Now, he's helping supply chain professionals envision how they can succeed after the end of "cheap oil."
CSCMP recently recognized Taylor for his lifetime commitment to finding practical solutions to intractable problems as well as for sharing that knowledge with others. At its 2010 Annual Global Conference in San Diego, the organization presented Taylor with its 45th Distinguished Service Award.
Taylor currently serves as principal of Awake! Consulting, an organization he founded to encourage supply chain professionals to get involved in shaping national energy policy. (See Taylor's article "The end of cheap oil: Are you ready?" from the Quarter 2/2007 issue of Supply Chain Quarterly.) It was appropriate, then, that Taylor used his acceptance speech at the conference to remind those in attendance that the industry is facing the unprecedented challenge of growing the economy while simultaneously reducing our dependence on oil.
But his message was not all gloom and doom. Taylor remains optimistic about the supply chain profession's ability to respond to this challenge. "There are incredible opportunities available for reducing waste and for conservation," he said. "In that way, supply chain improvements are better than new oil fields."
In fact, the end of cheap oil presents an enormous opportunity for supply chain professionals, according to Taylor. "You are a prerequisite for survival, and you will deliver as you always have," he said.
CSCMP session sampler
Here are summaries of just a few of the educational sessions that sparked interest at the annual conference. CSCMP members can learn more about these and other sessions by downloading the presentation slides from CSCMP's website. Slides are available at the "2010 Session Presentation Search" section under the "Educational Events" tab. A member log-in is required.
Panama: crossroads of global trade
The long-awaited Panama Canal expansion, slated for completion in 2014, will be a "game changer" that will make Panama "the most important cargo hub in the Americas," declared Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority's vice president of market research and analysis, in his keynote speech at the Annual Global Conference.
Sabonge said the new, larger locks now under construction will fundamentally change the way carriers deploy their vessels because they will accommodate much bigger ships than the current infrastructure can handle. He predicted that some carriers would adopt a "reverse intermodal" approach, skipping calls on the U.S. West Coast and funneling containers destined for other U.S. markets through transshipment hubs in Panama. That route will be cheaper than intermodal moves via West Coast ports, particularly for 53-foot containers, he asserted. Furthermore, carriers will see financial benefit in picking up backhauls from the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts and Central and South America and feeding them into east-west routes served by the new class of giant, post-Panamax vessels, Sabonge said.
Containerized shipping is not the only industry segment that will benefit from an expanded Panama Canal. Large bulk and liquid carriers that currently are too large to transit the canal will have an entirely new route open to them, Sabonge said. For example, liquid natural gas (LNG) tankers will for the first time be able to use the canal. As a result, transportation and logistics costs for some commodities will drop sharply, and new markets and trade lanes will open up. In particular, this development will facilitate new trade flows between South America, Europe, and China, he said.
Changing trade and cost patterns as well as strong economic growth in South American markets will attract more manufacturing, assembly, and logistics operations to Panama, Sabonge predicted. To accommodate that anticipated growth, Panama is expanding the already city-sized Colón Free Zone near the canal's Atlantic entry point. According to the Free Zone's website, there are now 10 warehouse projects under way or planned for the near future. At the other end of the canal, the Panamá Pacífico industrial development is opening new office, warehousing, and manufacturing properties for international companies at a rapid pace. To help meet expected demand for a trained workforce, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and its Colombian affiliate, the Center for Latin American Logistics Innovation, will soon open a logistics and transportation education center in Panama.
New metrics will forecast supply chain trends
Academics and software companies are developing "predictive metrics" that will detect early warning signs of future problems in a supply chain. Unlike traditional metrics, which use historical data to benchmark activities, predictive metrics use information to identify a trend line and predict a shift in an activity before it happens. "Predictive metrics complement historical reporting for better decision making," said Lynda Haydamous, a project manager at the Boeing Company, in a session on that topic at the conference.
Current research on predictive metrics is attempting to determine the underlying factors that could cause future supply chain problems. For instance, high employee turnover might indicate that a supplier may have trouble delivering quality products. Other research is focusing on shifts in the areas of supply and demand, said Lawrence Lapide, a research affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center for Transportation and Logistics. Examples of a supply shift include a supplier becoming unreliable, going out of business, or manufacturing degraded products. An example of a demand shift would be a customer dramatically increasing its orders.
The most important supply chain predictive metric now in development is the "Inventory Mix Quality Index," which indicates how an overstock or understock will affect the profit margin of a particular product, said ToolsGroup Chief Executive Officer Joseph D. Shamir. He believes that this metric could indicate when supply chain planners need to take corrective action to maintain profitability for specific stock-keeping units.
Ultimately the development of predictive metrics will help companies to better align their supply chains with their corporate objectives. As a result, the new metrics are popular with many corporate executives, Shamir said.
Get to know your customer
At many companies, supply chain interactions with the customer begin and end with making sure that the products are delivered when and where the customer wants them. At Avery Dennison, however, supply chain managers don't just focus on getting product to the customer, they also serve as an extension of the sales force.
Avery Dennison, which is one of the largest manufacturers of pressure-sensitive materials like labels, is both bigger and more supply chain-savvy than many of its customers. In fact, members of the company's Supply Chain Services Group often find themselves serving as logistics teachers and consultants to their customers, said Kent Packer, director of supply chain services, during a presentation at the conference.
Avery Dennison's supply chain specialists use sales calls as an opportunity to learn more about a customer's supply chain by asking questions like: What aspect of your supply chain drives you crazy? What's holding you back from success? What are your inventory turns?
If the customer reveals, for instance, that it's struggling with stocking problems, the Avery Dennison specialist might walk the client through basic inventory management concepts. From there, the discussion might turn to ways in which Avery Dennison's delivery services can help the client reduce its inventory (35 percent of Avery Dennison's offerings can be delivered in 24 hours). "We tell them, 'Let us be your warehouse,'" said Packer.
Programs such as this can not only help you make additional sales but also make you indispensable to your customer, said co-presenter Stan Fawcett of Brigham Young University. He noted that more companies want to rationalize their supplier base. A supplier that makes itself indispensable to its customer has a greater chance of keeping that business, he said.
Easy days are over for shippers
A top executive at International Paper said the days of abundant capacity and cheap rates in the U.S. trucking market are over. As a result, shippers need to prepare for a world where "we're not going to be able to move freight... the way we have in the past."
Tom Carpenter, director of logistics for North America for International Paper Company (IP), said the possible tightening of driver hours-of-service regulations together with the implementation of federal rules governing driver safety could take thousands of drivers and their rigs off the road. Another problem is the lack of infrastructure investment. "We are not, as a country, sufficiently reinvesting in our infrastructure to keep up with tonnage increases," said Carpenter, noting that truck traffic is growing 11 times faster than the growth of highway capacity.
IP belongs to the Coalition for Transportation Productivity, a group dedicated to raising the gross vehicle-weight limit to 97,000 pounds for single-trailer trucks operating on the nation's interstate highways and adding a sixth axle to the trailer for better braking and balance. Carpenter said that raising the gross vehicle-weight limit would enable the same amount of freight to be hauled in fewer trucks.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.