Inventor and technology futurist Ray Kurzweil once said, “Inventing is a lot like surfing; you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment.”1 Bottom line: Timing matters when it comes to technology innovation.
In 2008, Gartner published a research paper that introduced the concept of supply chain convergence. Supply chain convergence is about the ability to observe, manage, orchestrate, and eventually optimize end-to-end (E2E) processes that span traditional functional and application boundaries.
Back in 2008, we felt that supply chain organizations needed to do a better job of orchestrating and synchronizing processes, subprocesses, and activities across functional domains such as planning, customer service, sourcing, warehousing, transportation, and manufacturing. In a perfect world, E2E processes would span all domains and application silos, creating flawless information and transactional flows.
Most organizations want to support E2E supply chain processes. The challenge is that their technology portfolios consist of many independent, loosely integrated applications that are often provided by different vendors. Those applications have various levels of maturity and are based on different technology architectures, often because users built or bought their applications at different times, for different needs, and with little thought given to how they connect with and support an E2E process.
Many companies integrate disparate applications by simply passing data back and forth—but this is not supply chain convergence. Rather, navigating a supply chain application environment in such a way is similar to playing rugby blindfolded. Sightless players run up and down the field tossing the ball—hopefully to their own teammates—before being wrestled to the ground. It’s hard to know what’s going on and coordination is nearly impossible.
In the supply chain management (SCM) application world, the ball might be an order moving from a customer relationship management (CRM) system to an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to a warehouse management system (WMS), and so on (see Figure 1). Because orders are simply thrown from one system to another, it is very hard to orchestrate the E2E process in one direction let alone bi-directionally.
So, while our 2008 hypothesis was sound, companies were not ready or able to pursue supply chain convergence at that time. The timing wasn’t right. Gartner has revisited this concept repeatedly over the years, but even today, most companies struggle to systematically integrate E2E processes in the fragmented supply chain functional and information technology (IT) environments that are still prevalent in most organizations.
But the time for supply chain convergence may, finally, be upon us. Some progress has been made. Companies have done a good job when it comes to optimizing vertical functional processes that are aligned with their applications portfolio. For example, a WMS does a good job of coordinating the work within the four walls of the warehouse, and a transportation management system (TMS) can optimize the mode and carrier selection process for multimodal shipments. The challenge, however, lies with orchestrating and optimizing horizontal processes that cut across functional and application silos. While cross-functional application integration is doable, it is complex, and true process synchronization across applications and functional domains remains challenging for many companies. Until recently it was impractical, if not impossible, to coordinate activities across all functional domains without some form of coordination technology.
However, the need for coordination across the supply chain has become increasingly more important. Supply chains have become more distributed and outsourcing more pervasive, meaning that network complexity has increased. At the same time, product complexity has also increased. And then, enter COVID-19. The global pandemic and its lingering effects have showed how fragile global supply chains are and have forced companies to rethink how they support end-to-end processes.
The rise of microservices
Remember, the timing of technology innovation matters. When convergence was first discussed, many assumed that the solution was easy: just buy all your supply chain applications from a single vendor. This approach seems logical until we dig deeper into how supply chain applications are built and deployed even within large application suite providers. There are notably different architectural models for delivering supply chain applications. These can broadly be categorized as application portfolios vs. platforms (see Figure 2.)
[Figure 2] Application architecture: portfolio vs. platform Enlarge this image
Application portfolio vendors typically offer multiple functional applications that might share some elements or an integration bus but are mostly standalone applications with their own unique process and data models. There often are redundancies between functional applications (for example, replicated master data), and the vendors have not rewritten their applications in a common shared architecture. Portfolio vendors have often, but not always, grown through acquisitions, yet have chosen not to re-architect and rationalize their solutions.
To move towards convergence, portfolio vendors typically try to address this challenge by layering some type of analytical or orchestration capability that spans their vertical silos. A common name for these is control tower.
Application platform vendors, on the other hand, start with a common architecture, and all applications are built on a shared technical foundation—from the data and process models all the way to the user experience (UX). These vendors are often on the forefront of modern microservices architectures, which arrange application capabilities as a collection of loosely coupled, messaging-enabled services that are fine-grained while the protocols are lightweight.
These architectures remove most, if not all, redundancies, and functional capabilities (such as picking, carrier selection, or order promising) are rendered once and shared across the platform. Technical instrumentation such as rules engines, monitoring, configuration, and extensibility is also often shared. These vendors typically build their platform solutions organically from the ground up.
Platform vendors address convergence via composability. Capabilities are broken down into reusable microservice components, which can then be assembled or “composed” to build the E2E process. For example, a simple order-to-cash process might be composed by associating an order service, an order promising service, a picking service and forward picking replenishment service, and a parcel carrier rate shopping and selection service.
With the emergence of composable, microservices-based applications and the rediscovered mission-criticality of supply chains, convergence is now becoming a reality. Today’s composable microservices architectures can support composite processes that bring together subprocesses and activities from specific domains. Users can then merge these into a larger, converged E2E process.
To get to supply chain convergence, supply chain organizations must work closely with their IT partners to adopt a cross-functional application strategy and platform that allows them to horizontally model, orchestrate, and synchronize E2E processes. Also, as they seek to buy new supply chain solutions, companies should increase their emphasis on an application technical architecture that supports composability. Until they have such an architecture in place, companies with heterogeneous supply chain application portfolios will likely have to focus on analytical solutions that can at least span multiple functional boundaries.
Note:
1. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Penguin Books, 2005.
Companies in every sector are converting assets from fossil fuel to electric power in their push to reach net-zero energy targets and to reduce costs along the way, but to truly accelerate those efforts, they also need to improve electric energy efficiency, according to a study from technology consulting firm ABI Research.
In fact, boosting that efficiency could contribute fully 25% of the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero. And the pursuit of that goal will drive aggregated global investments in energy efficiency technologies to grow from $106 Billion in 2024 to $153 Billion in 2030, ABI said today in a report titled “The Role of Energy Efficiency in Reaching Net Zero Targets for Enterprises and Industries.”
ABI’s report divided the range of energy-efficiency-enhancing technologies and equipment into three industrial categories:
Commercial Buildings – Network Lighting Control (NLC) and occupancy sensing for automated lighting and heating; Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based energy management; heat-pumps and energy-efficient HVAC equipment; insulation technologies
Manufacturing Plants – Energy digital twins, factory automation, manufacturing process design and optimization software (PLM, MES, simulation); Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs); energy efficient electric motors (compressors, fans, pumps)
“Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) continue to insist on the importance of energy efficiency,” Dominique Bonte, VP of End Markets and Verticals at ABI Research, said in a release. “At COP 29 in Dubai, it was agreed to commit to collectively double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030, following recommendations from the IEA. This complements the EU’s Energy Efficiency First (EE1) Framework and the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act in which US$86 billion was earmarked for energy efficiency actions.”
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain.”
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
Freight transportation providers and maritime port operators are bracing for rough business impacts if the incoming Trump Administration follows through on its pledge to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China, analysts say.
Industry contacts say they fear that such heavy fees could prompt importers to “pull forward” a massive surge of goods before the new administration is seated on January 20, and then quickly cut back again once the hefty new fees are instituted, according to a report from TD Cowen.
As a measure of the potential economic impact of that uncertain scenario, transport company stocks were mostly trading down yesterday following Donald Trump’s social media post on Monday night announcing the proposed new policy, TD Cowen said in a note to investors.
But an alternative impact of the tariff jump could be that it doesn’t happen at all, but is merely a threat intended to force other nations to the table to strike new deals on trade, immigration, or drug smuggling. “Trump is perfectly comfortable being a policy paradox and pushing competing policies (and people); this ‘chaos premium’ only increases his leverage in negotiations,” the firm said.
However, if that truly is the new administration’s strategy, it could backfire by sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that includes retaliatory tariffs by other countries on U.S. exports, other analysts said. “The additional tariffs on China that the incoming US administration plans to impose will add to restrictions on China-made products, driving up their prices and fueling an already-under-way surge in efforts to beat the tariffs by importing products before the inauguration,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management solutions at Moody’s, said in a statement. “The Mexico and Canada tariffs may be an invitation to negotiations with the U.S. on immigration and other issues. If implemented, they would also be challenging to maintain, because the two nations can threaten the U.S. with significant retaliation and because of a likely pressure from the American business community that would be greatly affected by the costs and supply chain obstacles resulting from the tariffs.”
New tariffs could also damage sensitive supply chains by triggering unintended consequences, according to a report by Matt Lekstutis, Director at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain procurement consultancy. “While ultimate tariff policy will likely be implemented to achieve specific US re-industrialization and other political objectives, the responses of various nations, companies and trading partners is not easily predicted and companies that even have little or no exposure to Mexico, China or Canada could be impacted. New tariffs may disrupt supply chains dependent on just in time deliveries as they adjust to new trade flows. This could affect all industries dependent on distribution and logistics providers and result in supply shortages,” Lekstutis said.