Inventor and technology futurist Ray Kurzweil once said, “Inventing is a lot like surfing; you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment.”1 Bottom line: Timing matters when it comes to technology innovation.
In 2008, Gartner published a research paper that introduced the concept of supply chain convergence. Supply chain convergence is about the ability to observe, manage, orchestrate, and eventually optimize end-to-end (E2E) processes that span traditional functional and application boundaries.
Back in 2008, we felt that supply chain organizations needed to do a better job of orchestrating and synchronizing processes, subprocesses, and activities across functional domains such as planning, customer service, sourcing, warehousing, transportation, and manufacturing. In a perfect world, E2E processes would span all domains and application silos, creating flawless information and transactional flows.
Most organizations want to support E2E supply chain processes. The challenge is that their technology portfolios consist of many independent, loosely integrated applications that are often provided by different vendors. Those applications have various levels of maturity and are based on different technology architectures, often because users built or bought their applications at different times, for different needs, and with little thought given to how they connect with and support an E2E process.
Many companies integrate disparate applications by simply passing data back and forth—but this is not supply chain convergence. Rather, navigating a supply chain application environment in such a way is similar to playing rugby blindfolded. Sightless players run up and down the field tossing the ball—hopefully to their own teammates—before being wrestled to the ground. It’s hard to know what’s going on and coordination is nearly impossible.
In the supply chain management (SCM) application world, the ball might be an order moving from a customer relationship management (CRM) system to an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system to a warehouse management system (WMS), and so on (see Figure 1). Because orders are simply thrown from one system to another, it is very hard to orchestrate the E2E process in one direction let alone bi-directionally.
So, while our 2008 hypothesis was sound, companies were not ready or able to pursue supply chain convergence at that time. The timing wasn’t right. Gartner has revisited this concept repeatedly over the years, but even today, most companies struggle to systematically integrate E2E processes in the fragmented supply chain functional and information technology (IT) environments that are still prevalent in most organizations.
But the time for supply chain convergence may, finally, be upon us. Some progress has been made. Companies have done a good job when it comes to optimizing vertical functional processes that are aligned with their applications portfolio. For example, a WMS does a good job of coordinating the work within the four walls of the warehouse, and a transportation management system (TMS) can optimize the mode and carrier selection process for multimodal shipments. The challenge, however, lies with orchestrating and optimizing horizontal processes that cut across functional and application silos. While cross-functional application integration is doable, it is complex, and true process synchronization across applications and functional domains remains challenging for many companies. Until recently it was impractical, if not impossible, to coordinate activities across all functional domains without some form of coordination technology.
However, the need for coordination across the supply chain has become increasingly more important. Supply chains have become more distributed and outsourcing more pervasive, meaning that network complexity has increased. At the same time, product complexity has also increased. And then, enter COVID-19. The global pandemic and its lingering effects have showed how fragile global supply chains are and have forced companies to rethink how they support end-to-end processes.
The rise of microservices
Remember, the timing of technology innovation matters. When convergence was first discussed, many assumed that the solution was easy: just buy all your supply chain applications from a single vendor. This approach seems logical until we dig deeper into how supply chain applications are built and deployed even within large application suite providers. There are notably different architectural models for delivering supply chain applications. These can broadly be categorized as application portfolios vs. platforms (see Figure 2.)
[Figure 2] Application architecture: portfolio vs. platform Enlarge this image
Application portfolio vendors typically offer multiple functional applications that might share some elements or an integration bus but are mostly standalone applications with their own unique process and data models. There often are redundancies between functional applications (for example, replicated master data), and the vendors have not rewritten their applications in a common shared architecture. Portfolio vendors have often, but not always, grown through acquisitions, yet have chosen not to re-architect and rationalize their solutions.
To move towards convergence, portfolio vendors typically try to address this challenge by layering some type of analytical or orchestration capability that spans their vertical silos. A common name for these is control tower.
Application platform vendors, on the other hand, start with a common architecture, and all applications are built on a shared technical foundation—from the data and process models all the way to the user experience (UX). These vendors are often on the forefront of modern microservices architectures, which arrange application capabilities as a collection of loosely coupled, messaging-enabled services that are fine-grained while the protocols are lightweight.
These architectures remove most, if not all, redundancies, and functional capabilities (such as picking, carrier selection, or order promising) are rendered once and shared across the platform. Technical instrumentation such as rules engines, monitoring, configuration, and extensibility is also often shared. These vendors typically build their platform solutions organically from the ground up.
Platform vendors address convergence via composability. Capabilities are broken down into reusable microservice components, which can then be assembled or “composed” to build the E2E process. For example, a simple order-to-cash process might be composed by associating an order service, an order promising service, a picking service and forward picking replenishment service, and a parcel carrier rate shopping and selection service.
With the emergence of composable, microservices-based applications and the rediscovered mission-criticality of supply chains, convergence is now becoming a reality. Today’s composable microservices architectures can support composite processes that bring together subprocesses and activities from specific domains. Users can then merge these into a larger, converged E2E process.
To get to supply chain convergence, supply chain organizations must work closely with their IT partners to adopt a cross-functional application strategy and platform that allows them to horizontally model, orchestrate, and synchronize E2E processes. Also, as they seek to buy new supply chain solutions, companies should increase their emphasis on an application technical architecture that supports composability. Until they have such an architecture in place, companies with heterogeneous supply chain application portfolios will likely have to focus on analytical solutions that can at least span multiple functional boundaries.
Note:
1. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Penguin Books, 2005.
A hefty 42% of procurement leaders say the biggest threat to their future success is supply disruptions—such as natural disasters and transportation issues—a Gartner survey shows.
The survey, conducted from June through July 2024 among 258 sourcing and procurement leaders, was designed to help chief procurement officers (CPOs) understand and prioritize the most significant risks that could impede procurement operations, and what actions can be taken to manage them effectively.
"CPOs’ concerns about supply disruptions reflect the often unpredictable nature and potentially existential impacts of these events," Andrea Greenwald, Senior Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "They are coming to understand that the reactive measures they have employed to manage risks over the past four years will not be sufficient for the next four.”
Following supply disruptions at #1, the survey showed that the second biggest threat to procurement is seen as macroeconomic factors, which include economic downturns, inflation, and other economic factors. While more predictable, those variables can substantially influence long-term procurement strategies.
And the third-most serious perceived risk was geopolitical issues, including tariffs and regulatory changes, and compliance issues, including regulatory and contractual risks.
In addition, the survey also revealed that “leading organizations” are 2.2 times more likely to view energy availability and cost as a top risk; indicating a focus on future emerging risks. As electrification drives demand for power, brittle grid infrastructure raises concern about whether the energy supply can keep pace. Therefore, leading organizations recognize that access to energy will become a significant future risk.
The market for environmentally friendly logistics services is expected to grow by nearly 8% between now and 2033, reaching a value of $2.8 billion, according to research from Custom Market Insights (CMI), released earlier this year.
The “green logistics services market” encompasses environmentally sustainable logistics practices aimed at reducing carbon emissions, minimizing waste, and improving energy efficiency throughout the supply chain, according to CMI. The market involves the use of eco-friendly transportation methods—such as electric and hybrid vehicles—as well as renewable energy-powered warehouses, and advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) for optimizing logistics operations.
“Key components include transportation, warehousing, freight management, and supply chain solutions designed to meet regulatory standards and consumer demand for sustainability,” according to the report. “The market is driven by corporate social responsibility, technological advancements, and the increasing emphasis on achieving carbon neutrality in logistics operations.”
Major industry players include DHL Supply Chain, UPS, FedEx Corp., CEVA Logistics, XPO Logistics, Inc., and others focused on developing more sustainable logistics operations, according to the report.
The research measures the current market value of green logistics services at $1.4 billion, which is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% through 2033.
The report highlights six underlying factors driving growth:
Regulatory Compliance: Governments worldwide are enforcing stricter environmental regulations, compelling companies to adopt green logistics practices to reduce carbon emissions and meet legal requirements.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in technology, such as IoT, AI, and blockchain, enhance the efficiency and sustainability of logistics operations. These technologies enable better tracking, optimization, and reduced energy consumption.
Consumer Demand for Sustainability: Increasing consumer awareness and preference for eco-friendly products drive companies to implement green logistics to align with market expectations and enhance their brand image.
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): Companies are prioritizing sustainability in their CSR strategies, leading to investments in green logistics solutions to reduce environmental impact and fulfill stakeholder expectations.
Expansion into Emerging Markets: There is significant potential for growth in emerging markets where the adoption of green logistics practices is still developing. Companies can capitalize on this by introducing sustainable solutions and technologies.
Development of Renewable Energy Solutions: Investing in renewable energy sources, such as solar-powered warehouses and electric vehicle fleets, presents an opportunity for companies to reduce operational costs and enhance sustainability, driving further market growth.
For example, millions of residents and workers in the Tampa region have now left their homes and jobs, heeding increasingly dire evacuation warnings from state officials. They’re fleeing the estimated 10 to 20 feet of storm surge that is forecast to swamp the area, due to Hurricane Milton’s status as the strongest hurricane in the Gulf since Rita in 2005, the fifth-strongest Atlantic hurricane based on pressure, and the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane based on its peak winds, according to market data provider Industrial Info Resources.
Between that mass migration and the storm’s effect on buildings and infrastructure, supply chain impacts could hit the energy logistics and agriculture sectors particularly hard, according to a report from Everstream Analytics.
The Tampa Bay metro area is the most vulnerable area, with the potential for storm surge to halt port operations, roads, rails, air travel, and business operations – possibly for an extended period of time. In contrast to those “severe to potentially catastrophic” effects, key supply chain hubs outside of the core zone of impact—including the Miami metro area along with Jacksonville, FL and Savannah, GA—could also be impacted but to a more moderate level, such as slowdowns in port operations and air cargo, Everstream Analytics’ Chief Meteorologist Jon Davis said in a report.
Although it was recently downgraded from a Category 5 to Category 4 storm, Milton is anticipated to have major disruptions for transportation, in large part because it will strike an “already fragile supply chain environment” that is still reeling from the fury of Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago and the ILA port strike that ended just five days ago and crippled ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, a report from Project44 said.
The storm will also affect supply chain operations at sea, since approximately 74 container vessels are located near the storm and may experience delays as they await safe entry into major ports. Vessels already at the ports may face delays departing as they wait for storm conditions to clear, Project44 said.
On land, Florida will likely also face impacts in the Last Mile delivery industry as roads become difficult to navigate and workers evacuate for safety.
Likewise, freight rail networks are also shifting engines, cars, and shipments out of the path of the storm as the industry continues “adapting to a world shaped by climate change,” the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Before floods arrive, railroads may relocate locomotives, elevate track infrastructure, and remove sensitive electronic equipment such as sensors, signals and switches. However, forceful water can move a bridge from its support beams or destabilize it by unearthing the supporting soil, so in certain conditions, railroads may park rail cars full of heavy materials — like rocks and ballast — on a bridge before a flood to weigh it down, AAR said.
Imports at the nation’s major container ports should continue at elevated levels this month despite the strike, the groups said in their Global Port Tracker report.
To be sure, the strike wasn’t without impacts. NRF found that retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the overall effect of the three-day work stoppage on national economic trends will be fairly muted.
“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers and the nation’s economy that the strike was short lived,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected.”
Looking at next steps, NRF said the focus now is on bringing the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA)—the union representing some 45,000 workers—and the United States Maritime Alliance Ltd. (USMX) back to the bargaining table. “The priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again,” Gold said.
By the numbers, the report forecasts that U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker will handle 2.12 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) for October, which would be an increase of 3.1% year over year. That is slightly higher than the 2.08 million TEU forecast for October a month ago, and the strike did not appear to affect national totals.
In comparison, the August number was 2.34 million TEU, up 19.3% year over year. The September forecast 2.29 million TEU, up 12.9% year over year, November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, up 0.9% year over year, and December at 1.88 million TEU, up 0.2%. For the year, that would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023. The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
The North American robotics market saw a decline in both units ordered (down 7.9% to 15,705 units) and revenue (down 6.8% to $982.83 million) during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, as North American manufacturers faced ongoing economic headwinds, according to a report from the Association for Advancing Automation (A3).
“Rising inflation and borrowing costs have dampened spending on robotics, with many companies opting to delay major investments,” said Jeff Burnstein, president, A3. “Despite these challenges, the push for operational efficiency and workforce augmentation continues to drive demand for robotics in industries such as food and consumer goods and life sciences, among others. As companies navigate labor shortages and increased production costs, the role of automation is becoming ever more critical in maintaining global competitiveness.”
The downward trend was led by weakness in automotive manufacturing, which traditionally leads the charge in buying robots. In the first half of 2024, automotive OEMs ordered 4,159 units (up 14.4%) but generated revenue of $259.96 million (down 12.0%). The Automotive Components sector was even worse, orders 3,574 units (down 38.8%) for $191.93 million in revenue (down 27.3%). Declines also happened in the Semiconductor & Electronics/Photonics sector and the Plastics & Rubber sector.
On the positive side, Food & Consumer Goods companies ordered 1,173 units (up 85.6%) for $62.84 million in revenue (up 56.2%). This growth reflects the increasing reliance on robotics for efficiency in food processing and packaging as companies seek to address labor shortages and rising costs, A3 said. And the Life Sciences industry ordered 1,007 units (up 47.9%) for revenue of $47.29 million (up 86.7%) as it continued its reliance on robotics for efficiency and precision.